The 2015 Dallas Stars Offseason Outlook: Part 2 of 3

Here is a three part series over the next week to detail the Dallas Stars Outlook heading into the offseason.  I have identified three priorities Jim Nill and Co. need to solidify prior to next season.

1. Acquire Top D Man
2. Acquire a Goalie that can push Kari Lehtonen for the starting job.
3. Acquire a defensive first winger in the top 6 and replace the player Rich Peverley.

You can read the first part of the series where I identified how the Stars can acquire a Top D Man here.

Here I will tackle Priority Two: Acquire a Goalie that can push Kari Lehtonen for the starting job.

The Stars 2014-15 season was defined by tremendous scoring, defensive lapses and sub standard goaltending.

One can argue they are all connected, a team that focused on scoring by definition puts their defense at a disadvantage and a goalie will always struggle if he doesn’t have solid defense in front of him.

This is true but a upper echelon goalie must be able to bail out his team and make that save over the course of a game to keep his team in it.  The goalie needs to be your number one star at times and the best player on the ice.

This was not the case for Kari Lehtonon during the 2014-15 season which is why adding a net minder who can push him not just for a spot start on the second night of a back to back but for his starting job.

The type of goalie needed is a relative young guy in his mid 20s who has played a few seasons in the NHL with successful stretches in net.  They also look for big guys who stand over 6-2 as well.

Here are the top 3 targets available on the free agent market who fit the profile.

1. Karri Ramo from the Calgary Flames.  He is 28 and stands 6-2, weighing 215 and performed very well in the NHL. He was 15-8-3 with 2 shutouts last season with a 2.54 GAA and .913 save %.  He served as the backup in Calgary but was paid $2.75 million for his services and undoubtedly will want a shot at a starting job.
2. Jake Allen from the St. Louis Blues.  He is a supremely talented youngster at age 24 standing 6-2. He enters the offseason as a restricted free agent and a team can sign him to an offer sheet and make the Blues not be able to afford his services especially with a higher paid goalie already on the team in Brian Elliott. Allen had a 2.28 GAA and a .913 save %, both better than Lehtonen.
3. Martin Jones from the LA Kings. Another restricted free agent who will require an offer sheet and put the Kings in a difficult decision to match. However the player Martin is the ideal candidate, stands 6-4, age 25 and has 34 NHL games under his belt. He was most impressive in 2013-14 with a 1.81 GAA but has 7 career shutouts which is impressive.

The Stars still have Jack Campbell playing with the Texas Stars in the AHL who finished the season strong after an extremely rocky start. He will enter camp trying to make the NHL roster again and would the Stars preference to push Kari for time but the team can’t take the chance not adding more competition in net going into next season.

Kari Lehtonen had a 2.94 GAA and .903 save % in 2014-15 which was his worst as a Dallas Star and career worst since his rookie season in Atlanta in 2008-09.  Even worse was his 3.02 GAA at home and dreadful .898 save % at home. 

No team makes it into the playoffs without strong play in net and the Stars missed out on the playoffs primarily due to the performance on their netminders which cannot continue.

Regardless if the starter is Lehtonen next season or a newcomer, Nill has to give Lindy Ruff a quality option which he did have. The Stars went almost a full calendar year between wins from their backup goalie when they started the game.

They can’t have that kind of performance from their starter nor their backup, it has to change next season.

The 2015 Dallas Stars Offseason Outlook: Part 1/3

Here is Part 1 of a three part series over the next week to detail the Stars Outlook heading into the offseason.  I have identified three priorities Jim Nill and Co. need to solidify prior to next season.

1. Acquire Top D Man

2. Acquire a Goalie that can push Kari Lehtonen for the starting job.

3. Acquire a defensive first winger who can play in the top 6 and replace the player Rich Peverely.

Here I will tackle Priority One: Acquire Top D Man

The Stars are in luck, there are a few top defensive men available in free agency and on the trade market.  On top of that, the franchise is in great shape with their salary cap to add a top player. This is due to the extreme bargain the Stars have in Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin. 

Target is Johnny Boychuk from Islanders, Andrej Sekera from Carolina Hurricanes. Next option is Christian Ehrhoff from Penguins. None are goal scorers but are big presence and possession guys who can hold their own in zone. Brent Searbrook via trade is an option from the Blackhawks who will need salary cap relief and have to make a tough decision on veteran needing to move.

The Dallas Stars have the makings of a deep and talented defensive group but are weak at the top. They have banked on having puck moving undersized D men who can beat the forecheck and use proper positioning to be an adequate defender. However every team needs a big bully who can clear the net, block shots, rough up the opponent, be a capable skater who isn’t a liability with the puck on his stick. The Stars have potentially one in Patrik Nemeth but need another, preferably an established veteran Lindy Ruff can match up against opposing top lines and on the penalty kill.  The Stars locked up Jon Klingberg to a long-term deal after his stellar rookie season with hopes of pairing him with said veteran on the top line. Since Klingberg is a right handed shot, GM Jim Nill will be on the lookout for a left handed shot if the plan is to match up with the youngster.

Here is what is available on the free agent market which undoubtedly will be the most expensive avenue to acquire in terms of money.

1. Cody Franson, Toronto Maple Leafs - A top D man, not elite but a very good top pairing D man who will be a scoring force especially on the power play.  He’s big at 6-5 and 213 lbs, young at age 27 and a right handed shot. The list of teams wanting Franson will form to the left and his salary will likely exceed $7 million annually.
2. Andrej Sekera, Carolina Hurricanes - The top two-way defensive man on the free agent market, he’s still young at 28 years old and has produced against top competition on a nightly basis with positive possession numbers. Sekera played for Ruff in Buffalo and the Stars will know him better than any other team outside of those who played with him last year. Andrej is not as big, standing only 6-0 and weighing 200 lbs and is a left handed shot. However Sekera is that veteran presence who knows the scheme, has produced for years in the NHL, can skate, defend and move the puck without problem.

There are others who are available on the market but these would be my targets heading into free agency as they fit the profile; veteran, physical, capable skater and not a puck moving liability.

Obviously Cody Franson is going to cost a ton and the Stars likelihood of seriously pursuing him is low, Nill has been masterful structuring the salary cap and can’t see him throwing it out the window for one player, even Cody Franson. Andrej Sekera is the most likely target, familiarity with Ruff, see himself as a missing piece to a contender and like the scheme that favors skating over size.

If Nill cannot strike on plan A, some alternative free agent options would be Matt Irwin from the Sharks, Johnny Oduya from Chicago or the ever teasing Jeff Petry from the Canadiens. None of those project to be a confident top pairing D man nor would they be a significant upgrade over the top 6 Dallas has currently on the roster.

The trade market is going to be the best place for the Stars to find their missing piece on defense.  First you must ask yourself, every team could use help on defense, why would they be willing to part with a top pairing D man?  You can ask the same question to Boston when trying to figure out how the Stars came away with a young stud offensive weapon in Tyler Seguin. The answer is find a team that is facing a salary cap crunch this offseason and has significant defensive top depth.

Enter the Chicago Blackhawks 2015 Salary Cap outlook.  Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will cost $21 million combined in 2015 with $65 million currently on the books to a team that only has 4 defensive men on the roster. The 2014 salary cap was $69 million and is projected to stay the same or even decrease a little.

The Blackhawks D pairings in their conference final match with the Anaheim Ducks had Duncan Keith and Niklas Hjalmarsson as their top pair both making less next season than Brent Seabrook will in 2015 at $5.8 million.

This means there is an opportunity for the Stars to make a move.  What would it take?

The Blackhawks aren’t stupid, they will need a veteran who can play on their 2nd pair at a fraction of Seabrooks cost and a NHL ready prospect. Alex Goligoski will count $4.6 million in 2015 while Trevor Daley is at $3.3 million for two more seasons. Let the Hawks take their pick of Goligoski or Daley although I would rather they take Daley and add in Jamie Oleskiak as the NHL ready prospect.

Brent Seabrook instantly becomes the Stars best defensive man as a veteran, physical, right handed shooter who is an underrated scorer. He would be entering the final year of his contract which is a steep price to pay but consider that Goligoski is also entering his final year, Daley appeared lost in his own zone last year but had a career year in the goal tally. Oleskiak has the most potential of the Stars D prospects but consider how many prospects have jumped ahead of Big Rig the past two seasons, Nemeth, Klingberg, Jokipakka and Brendon Dillon while we still wait for him to show up. It might still happen but should you try and capitalize on his value to add a top D man to take advantage of the team you have now?

I say absolutely.

La'el Collins, OG - Undrafted Free Agent Signs with Cowboys

La’el Collins, LSU, #70

Height	Weight	Arm	Hand	10 Yd	40 Yd	Bench	Vertical	Broad	3-Cone	Shuttle	60 Yd Shuttle
6-4	305	33 ¼	10 3/8	1.81	5.12	21	27	108	7.7	4.63	DNP

Game Film Evaluated:

Arkansas (2013)

Wisconsin (2014)

Florida (2014)

Ole Miss (2014)

Pros: Really good quick feet, gets good depth. Moves well and upfield with ease. He can handle speed rush and anchors well. Plays with strong hands at times. He has good feel to turn his man and set the edge in run game. Showed ability to explode in short yardage situations to open up holes. In 2014…devastating ability to get to 2^nd level. He can hit the moving target.

Cons: Gets off balance in pass protection. Needs more power, gets tossed around by defense often. Drops his head. Balance remains an issue and too much bending at the waist especially in run game. Ended up on ground too often. Falls off blocks when engaged, needs to be more consistent. Needs to keep his arms extension to resist counter moves. Not good cut blocker, he consistently missed and just ends up on the ground.

Summary: La’el Collins is a high upside offensive tackle prospect who shows good ability to handle defensive ends at the next level and has the feet to develop into a quality run blocker especially in a zone blocking scheme. He needs a bit of technique work to allow him to better handle counter moves and utilize his length and advanced footwork to his advantage. He is not suited for an angle blocking scheme nor in a mauling type role, that isn’t his game. He projects as a late first round prospect to be a tackle or guard that prefers their lineman smaller and more athletic. He will be a weapon on sweeps, tosses and stretch plays.

Laurence Gibson, OT - 243rd Overall Pick

Laurence Gibson, Virginia Tech, #63

Height	Weight	Arm	Hand	10 Yd	40 Yd	Bench	Vertical	Broad	3-Cone	Shuttle	60 Yd Shuttle
6-5	305	35 1/8	10 3/8	1.81	5.04	24	33.5	113	7.72	4.56	DNP

Game Film Evaluated:

East Carolina (2014)

Wake Forest (2014)

Pros: Quick feet. Excellent quickness out of his stance, able to get to the 2^nd level. Really good at turning his man out of the hole. Flashed the ability to man handle LBs at the 2^nd level when he connects on his downfield blocks. He can block down and completely collapse that side of the line.

Cons: Bends at the waist when beaten to the outside. Struggles to hit the moving target. Needs to reset his feet and slide instead of reaching and getting off balance. Needs to add bulk, got pushed back into pocket when he let them to his body. Struggles to stay engaged with defenders, needs to add strength. Gives up inside leverage way too often, gets his hands outside and will be flagged for holding. Gets caught reaching and over extended often. Needs to keep his feet moving and push them around the QB.

Summary: Laurence Gibson is an ideal project offensive tackle prospect with significant upside to be a tackle in the future.  He has excellent length and ideal quickness in his feet. His technique is a mess at this point and needs to get in the weight room. He flashes what he is capable of on film, ability to get upfield easily and destroy 2^nd level defenders, collapse the line and open up huge cut back lanes. He gives up leverage often, needs to keep his feet moving and guide the rusher past the QB. He has got to bend at the knees instead of at the waist and improve his hand placement to keep inside the defender. I project Gibson to be a backup left tackle prospect who has high upside for a zone blocking scheme if he can add strength and take to coaching to become an excellent swing tackle on game day within a few years. 5^th round value.

Mark Nzeocha, LB - 236th overall pick

Mark Nzeocha, Wyoming #21

Height	Weight	Arm	Hand	10 Yd	40 Yd	Bench	Vertical	Broad	3-Cone	Shuttle	60 Yd Shuttle
6-2	232	33	10	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP	DNP

Game Film Evaluated:

Fresno State (2013)

Pros: Excellent frame, long legs. Played in space often as a rover type, comfortable in space and in coverage. Able to get off receiver blocks and finish the play. Good in his backpedal. Strong hands and capable of getting the tackle in space. Athletic enough to run with receivers in coverage.

Cons: Suffered Torn ACL Oct 18^th vs San Jose State. Struggles when asked the charge the action and get into traffic in the box. Does not play with great feel for locating the ball inside. Takes several false steps, bites hard on playaction…could not locate the ball nor make a play on it. No idea how to jam or redirect receivers when lined up on the LOS. Very raw, needs to improve his play recognition to avoid the false steps.

Summary: Mark Nzeocha is an athletic outside backer prospect originally from Neusitz, Germany. He plays like a roving safety prospect, has some real athletic potential and comfortable in space and in coverage which is rare for a linebacker prospect. He can run laterally, has good backpedal and shows some transition and close well. He breaks down very well in space and can make the open field tackle. He has the long speed to be close with receivers in coverage but did not locate the ball or make a play on it despite being in good position. Plays as if he is thinking too much, takes a lot of false steps, struggles to locate the ball in traffic and gets caught up in the wash. He is most effective in space and in coverage. He was unable to perform at the combine due to the ACL injury but projects as an athletic big nickel linebacker who can be a plus covering defender on passing downs. He is athletic enough to make a name for himself on special teams, that is key for him to make a team as a rookie. He has significant upside but is raw. 5^th round pick off his film but the injury knocks him down to the 6^th round.

Ryan Russell, DE - 163rd Overall pick

Ryan Russell, Pursue, #99

Height	Weight	Arm	Hand	10 Yd	40 Yd	Bench	Vertical	Broad	3-Cone	Shuttle	60 Yd Shuttle
6-4	269	33 3/8	10 ¼	1.64	4.75	25	32.5	119	7.25	4.47	12.26

Game Film Evaluated:

Notre Dame (2013)

Ohio State (2013)

Notre Dame (2012)

Pros: Plays with long arms, mostly lines up at strongside DE. Locates the ball well, tracks the action all over the field. High motor player. Athletic to play down and standing up, even dropping into coverage on occasion. He can cross the face of a tackle effectively and quickly gain leverage to drive toward the QB for pressure. Good long arm, long legs and frame suggest he can get bigger. Able to deliver a big hit and his pursue of plays outside of his areas increases those chances. Plays under control and executes his assignments well, able to control his gap most of the time. Flashed a swim move vs OSU. Flashed a rip move vs ND.

Cons: Not explosive off the line nor great closing speed. Has a good spin move…lacks the explosive change of direction ability to knock pro tackles off balance. Doesn’t have fluid hips to consistently play standing up. Did not show pass rush moves consistently other than a spin move, not strong at the POA to knock a tackle on his heels consistently. Did not show ability to disengage from blocks in the run game and finish.

Summary: Ryan Russell is a good college football player but has limitations projecting to the next level. He lacks great burst at the snap, ability to bend and turn the corner on tackles and close on the QB. He also isn’t that powerful or stout at the POA. However he is a high motor player who finds the action pretty well, has good frame for the position and really generates inside leverage well crossing the face of tackles. He flashed a spin, rip and swim move but not consistently. He needs to consistently play with technique to help him disengage from blocks at the next level. He projects as a backup strongside defensive end in a 4-3 scheme who needs to add some bulk. Looks like a 5^th to 6^th round pick.

Damien Wilson, LB - 127th overall pick

Damien Wilson, Minnesota #5

Height	Weight	Arm	Hand	10 Yd	40 Yd	Bench	Vertical	Broad	3-Cone	Shuttle	60 Yd Shuttle
6-0	245	33 ¾	9 3/8	1.66	4.77	22	37	110	7.21	4.20	11.68

Game Film Evaluated:

Nebraska (2014)

Pros: Very good athlete, has some burst and some lateral quickness.  Has the ability to strike. Plays downhill in college. Likes to attack the action. Gets good depth in coverage. Looks to strip the ball from backs when running in his area.

Cons: Played mike at Minnesota but he cannot get off blocks at all. He lets him them get into his body, no sense of extending arms to disengage or any ability to stack and shed. Nor did he play with knack for stepping around blockers. Takes a lot of false steps on run plays, picks the wrong hole. Struggles to locate the ball and get through traffic. Slow to react. Has stiff hips in coverage. Looked to lower shoulder for big hit when he gets a clean path to the ball versus just wrapping up the ballcarrier.

Summary: Damien Wilson played middle linebacker at Minnesota but cannot stay there in the NFL to have any chance of success.  He has the athleticism to play Will backer at the next level and the athleticism to cover backs in space possibly. He projects as a backup at outside linebacker in a scheme that allows him space to run, he will have to play on ST to earn a job. Early 5^th round pick.

Javorius Allen, RB - 125th overall pick

Javorius Allen, USC, #37

Height	Weight	Arm	Hand	10 Yd	40 Yd	Bench	Vertical	Broad	3-Cone	Shuttle	60 Yd Shuttle
6-0	221	31 ¾	9 3/8	1.58	4.53	11	35.5	121	6.96	4.28	DNP

Game Film Evaluated:

Boston College (2014)

Nebraska (2014)

Pros: He goes low to try to take out blitzers. Effective receiver out of the backfield. He can juke out a defender in space. Very reliable receiver. Switches hands to protect the ball. Effective pass protector if he stays upright, not nearly as effective when he goes low. He brings some speed and has the look of a perfect 3^rd down back.

Cons: Struggles to break tackles in the box. Inconsistent burst.  Doesn’t appear to change directions quickly, really powers down and can’t stop on a dime.

Summary: Javorius “Buck” Allen has the look of an ideal 3^rd down back in the NFL. He offers some speed, athletic in space and comfortable catching the ball. Is a weapon on screen passes and has a patient feel for setting up his blockers. He lacks tackle breaking ability nor the great vision to find the hole before its there. Too often he is running up the back of his own lineman. Allen is a 5^th round pick who can turn into a valuable member of the team as a 3^rd down back and play special teams.