Do you really need a First Round pick to win at the NFL Draft?

Who says you need a first round pick to win at the NFL Draft?

NFL Teams are less than a month away from opening their training camps across the country as every franchise attempts to begin the long run at contending for a NFL Championship. The NFL Draft is the most important event that can make or break a team’s chances of turning things around into a contender or re-loading a playoff team to replenish their losses in free agency with cheaper and younger talent. It is imperative that teams not miss on the premium picks in the first few rounds but it is also just as important at finding quality in the middle rounds as that builds your depth to withstand injuries and allow expensive veterans to leave with a viable backup waiting to take over.

Every year we are introduced to rookies who make an immediate splash in the league from all rounds of the draft. We have all heard that it takes three years to accurately assess a team’s draft but we would all love to see some of them help the team out immediately especially those guys selected in the mid to later rounds. Let us take a look at some of those very hits just in the past two years.

2013 NFL Draft
David Bakhtiari
LT
Green Bay Packers
Taken 4th Round, 17 starts at left tackle

Keenan Allen
WR
San Diego Chargers
3rd Round caught 71 passes for 1,046 and 8 TDs as true X WR.

Larry Warford
RG
Detroit Lions
3rd Round who ranked as 4th best OG of NFL, pro-bowler.

Logan Ryan
CB
New England Patriots
3rd Round with 5 INTs and 10 passes defended in final 10 gms.

Zac Stacy
RB
St. Louis Rams
5th Round had 1,114 yards from scrimmage, 4th among rookies.

Eddie Lacy
RB
Green Bay Packers
2nd Round who led all rookies in yards, carries and TDs.

2012 NFL Draft
Alshon Jeffery
WR
Chicago Bears
2nd Round Pro-Bowl WR despite slow 40 time at combine.

Alfred Morris
RB
Washington Redskins
#173 overall from Florida Atlantic, pro-bowl as rookie

Nick Foles
QB
Philadelphia Eagles
3rd Round, amongst most efficient QBs in NFL in 2013.

Russell Wilson
QB
Seattle Seahawks
3rd Round rookie starter and next year’s Super Bowl Champion

Justin Tucker
K
Baltimore Ravens
Undrafted, made 30-33 field goals as rookie & XLVII Champion

Damon Harrison
NT
New York Jets
Amongst the best nose tackles in the game despite undrafted.

Vontaze Burfict
LB
Cincinnati Bengals
Undrafted, led the NFL in tackles in 2013.

Take stock of what we have there, a Super Bowl winning QB and another championship caliber QB from the 3rd round, a clutch kicker, excellent linemen, playmakers at receiver, powerful runners, a physical defender and a playmaker in the secondary. My point is you can find great players at any part of the draft, at any position even the most important ones and they are vital to contending for a championship and staying within the salary cap.

You might say, “So what, hindsight is always 20/20 and the Cowboys are not mentioned anywhere so what is the point?”

I went back throughout my 2014 NFL Draft reports and built what I think would be a winning team but only prospects taken after the 1st round. The purpose of this exercise is to make an attempt to forecast who those immediate contributors are going to be from the talent pool of guys who didn’t have the ideal measurable or other question marks. Feel free to take a shot along with me.

Let us begin with the offensive lineup.

Name Position NFL Team Round Notes
Aaron Murray
QB
Chiefs
5th
He has NFL QB skills without the ideal size and elite arm strength. He has the look of someone the most NFL ready in the class to transition into a pro system soon. I see so much Drew Brees with Aaron Murray.

Lorenzo Taliaferro
RB
Ravens
4th
A power inside runner. Didn’t get many carries running inside thanks to the spread offense. Changes directions and cuts pretty quickly. Quick feet.

Tre Mason
RB
Rams
3rd
A physical runner to pound it inside in short yardage situations. Has elite burst and good downfield speed. He can make guys miss and take it for the score.

Marqise Lee
WR
Jaguars
2nd
A dynamic playmaker, junior season was a waste due to injury and instability from all levels of the football program at USC. Extremely competitive and hard working kid who could be Desean Jackson without the baggage.

Allen Robinson
WR
Jaugars
2nd
Physical bigger receiver who has experience beating the press, running a full route tree and gets out of his breaks with ease to create separation. Advanced feel for the position heading into the pro’s.

Crockett Gillmore
TE
Ravens
3rd
Ideal size for a complete inline tight end capable of beating the LBs down the seam, sealing off the edge and athletic to be a receiving threat. Lower level of competition not a concern, he exceeded expectations at Senior Bowl.

Cyrus Kouandjio
LT
Bills
2nd
He projects as an offensive tackle at either side capable of protecting the QB versus almost any rusher he will go against on Sundays. He is not a versatile player as could not be a guard due to his average run blocking when he doesn’t move his feet and awful short yardage blocking.

Trai Turner
OG
Panthers
3rd
He has the strength to become a mauler in the run game with a top level of physical attitude and base to not give up much in pass protection. However he has ability to be dominating especially when he can pull as he consistently blows up his man.

Tyler Larsen
C
Dolphins
Undrafted
He is athletic to move well in space and can pull with ease. He holds up well in pass protection but will struggle versus extremely athletic pass rushers but should hold up versus power players.

Gabe Jackson
OG
Raiders
3rd
Jackson is not an elite guard prospect by any stretch but he is a more than capable starting guard in an angle scheme focused on physical run blocking like the Steelers or the 49ers. He fits best as a right guard as he can pull but not hit the moving target.

Billy Turner
RT
Dolphins
3rd
Has a lot of good traits to be a fine right tackle in the pros. He has the run blocking strength to be an effective guard as well. I like his feet enough to stay at tackle where he played in college.

I have concerns about Kouandjio being my blindside protector on an island as I had questions about his feet prior to the draft. However remember that David Bakhtiari had question marks coming out of Colorado which caused him to fall into the 4th round but he improved to be a steady left tackle for a playoff team as a rookie. I was shocked that Tyler Larsen went undrafted as I evaluated him a late 2nd round player but Cowboy fans will know that Ron Leary started 16 games in just his 2nd season after going undrafted due to knee concerns.

Onto the defensive lineup, first with a 4-3 front.
Name (4-3 Scheme) Position NFL Team Round Notes

Chris Smith
DE
Jaguars
5th
Good not elite player capable of getting a pass rush with his long arms from the outside. I saw a tremendous burst off the snap vs A&M but not against others. The burst, motor, arm length is there to warrant a Day II selection but not polished product by any means.

Ra’Shede Hageman
DT-1
Falcons
2nd
Ideal frame, length and strength to be a potential force on the interior but he’s not there yet. At this point, looks like a dominant run stuffing 2-down lineman as a 1-technique in a 4-3. I have concerns about his ability to be a stay at home clog up the middle nose tackle, he likes to get up field and concern is maintaining gap integrity.

Will Sutton
DT-3
Bears
3rd
Suited for 3 technique in an aggressive pass rush scheme, not very tall is a concern holding up on the outside in base. Needs to drop excess weight put on as a senior to regain burst showed as junior.

Scott Crichton
DE
Vikings
3rd
Capable of beating a lineman with speed to the outside and on a bull rush. Did not show consistently other pass rush moves to create pressure. His liabilities versus the run push down his value.

Christian Jones
Will
Bears
Undrafted
He has good athleticism to stick with backs in coverage and can blitz effectively. I question his intangibles to diagnose the action quickly enough to make plays. I like him best as a Will in a 4-3 so he can run and chase plays down.

Chris Borland
MLB
49ers
3rd
He does have the skills and all the intangibles can ask for to make it in the pros. He has a shoulder issue that surfaced at the combine from injury that knocked him out of 2010 season but played his final 3 seasons at Wisconsin. Team leader and plays like it. Plays fast.

Carl Bradford
SAM
Packers
4th
Looks like an ideal SAM backer in a 4-3 who can play the run, offer some outside pass rush as a blitzer and not be lost in zone coverage.

Name (3-4 Scheme) Position NFL Team Round Notes

Stephon Tuitt
RDE
Steelers
2nd
He brings solid run stuffing ability with some pass rush but not dominant in any one area. He has speed but only average quickness. Impressive player who projects well into a 3-4 scheme as well as power 4-man schemes as a 1-technique or even as a strong side DE.

Louis Nix
NT
Texans
3rd
Sure looks like a two-gap nose tackle or a 1-technique in a stay at home clog the middle type scheme. He is now a 2-down run stuffer who can’t give much in the pass rush with any consistency.

Ed Stinson
LDE
Cardinals
5th
Athletic two-gap 5 technique player for Bama in their stout defense. He plays the run well, can stand up the blocker and disengage to finish the play. Underrated athleticism has he has the burst to close on the QB. Initially he looks like a two-down run stuffing end in a 3-4.

Jeremiah Attaochu
ROLB
Chargers
2nd
He’s a high energy player who can get to the QB who never quits on a play. He profiles best as an OLB in a 4-3 who can put his hand down in passing situations in a Khalil Mack role.

Chris Borland
ILB
49ers
3rd
He does have the skills and all the intangibles can ask for to make it in the pros. He has a shoulder issue that surfaced at the combine from injury that knocked him out of 2010 season but played his final 3 seasons at Wisconsin. Team leader and plays like it. Plays fast.

Yawin Smallwood
ILB
Falcons
7th
Not a small guy, he is a tall inside backer who fits best in a 3-4 as the thumper backer. He can take on blocks and disengage them effectively.Worry about his tackling and taking poor angles too often. He can deliver the hammer with authority and knock the ball out.

Chris Smith
LOLB
Jaguars
5th
Good not elite player capable of getting a pass rush with his long arms from the outside. I saw a tremendous burst off the snap vs A&M but not against others. The burst, motor, arm length is there to warrant a Day II selection but not polished product by any means.

And the rest of the defense.

Name Position NFL Team Round Notes

Pierre Desir
CB
Browns
4th
Desir is a tall corner with impressive length who’s a ballhawk when the ball is in the air. He comes from very low level of competition but concerns are low as he fit in very well at Senior Bowl. Needs to go somewhere that will allow him to play physical zone coverage.

Aaron Colvin
CB
Jaguars
4th
Colvin was the best cornerback on the field for the South today. He showed cat-quick feet in drills and snapped his hips exceptionally well in off coverage to break on sideline routes. Scouts raved about his explosiveness out of breaks and his overall athleticism for CB.

LaMarcus Joyner
CB
Jets
2nd
The only two questions are is his lack of size enough to worry about his durability and does he fit best as a corner or a safety? I like him as a free safety prospect who can be a excellent center field type, a devastating blitzer finding the hole to get to the QB and playmaker in coverage and comfortable taking on slot WRs in man coverage. He may not be able to play 8-10 years in the league because of his size.

Terrence Brooks
SS
Ravens
3rd
Top playmaker who can make game-changing plays in the passing game and occasionally force a fumble. He is a good tackler and would have complete confidence with him in deep half or center field type coverage.

Jemea Thomas
FS
Patriots
6th
Good football safety who shows up on tape regardless who you are watching. His lack of size is a concern but he plays the position well and is someone would not worry about if he was the last line of defense. He does everything good but not a dynamic playmaker.

I prefer the 3-4 front lineup as this was not a great year for 4-3 defensive ends. I greatly worry about the ability of that 4-man front to defend the run but it is up to the player to work on his craft to either improve (Anthony Spencer) or remain a liability (Victor Butler). The same goes for the safety class which is why the top 4 safeties were all selected in the first round. The note on Brooks is, did his stock jump to the 3rd round because of a few great games or a sign of untapped potential? Joyner is a classic tweener who needs to find a niche to make a significant impact in the league is going to be the key. Thomas is just a solid player who does everything well and puts safe back into safety as the last line of defense.

The point of this exercise is to remind you that you don’t need a first round pick to have a winning draft nor does it make sense to move up in the first round trading away quality picks in the 2nd & 3rd round. Jerry Jones traded away his 2nd round pick to move up to acquire Morris Claiborne in the 2012 Draft but Dallas could of stayed put and taken David DeCastro and a guy named Alshon Jeffery who was picked at their spot in the 2nd round. I worry history repeated itself at the 2014 Draft when Jones again traded away a premium pick moving up to get pass rusher DeMarcus Lawrence. He gave away his 3rd round which one pick later turned into safety Terrence Brooks for Ozzie Newsome which now gives the Ravens a talented group of safeties in Matt Elam and Brooks.

One thing we can confidently say is 100% of these players will not succeed in the NFL, injuries, the depth chart, work ethic, scheme fit are all variables that play into a players future success. A player could have been very healthy in college only to never make it out of the training room, former Bears RB Curtis Enis rings a bell or Matt Johnson for Cowboy fans. Then there are those who had medical red flags but were so productive, teams selected them anyway like Sean Lee. Finally there is that elite prospect that had very little red flags coming into the draft that just couldn’t make it work no matter how hard they tried, Andre Wadsworth who was taken #3 overall in 1998.

Let us revisit this lineup a year from now and each year until 2017 to see how many of these players turned out to be successful hits or misses in the biggest crapshoot in sports. No other sport’s draft has more players make a significant impact immediately at the game’s highest level despite being taken in the lower rounds or even undrafted than the NFL.

Mike Ray on 6/25/2014
Follow on Twitter @MikeRay34