A scouts perspective

A scouts perspective

Saturday, June 15, 2013

Rangers as potential sleepers?

The Rangers are as well positioned as a team could be, money to spend, deep farm system including top prospect in baseball and quality veteran players on expiring contracts.

This team does not have the playoff rotation nor a lineup with the ability to generate offense especially through quality at bats.

I disagree the Rangers should try to acquire a big time bat at the deadline to help the struggling lineup, the SF Giants have won 2 world championships with a below average lineup but stellar defense and even better pitching.  Thats the direction the Rangers need to go.

If you are going to trade quality pieces like a Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt, Joey Gallo or Martin Perez, do it a quality piece at the most important position, bottom line, pitching and more pitching.

What good would a top bat like a Giancarlos Stanton do when the Rangers are trailing 5-0 after four innings?  The team is trying to survive with 3 rookies in the rotation for a significant portion of the season with little help on the horizon until August and thats if all goes well.  Don't get me wrong, I am not opposed to acquiring a bat like Stanton but not if the pieces to do it prevent me from getting a top quality pitcher like David Price or Cliff lee.

I would much rather try to acquire David Price, negotiate a long-term contract and give up any prospect not named Profar to make it happen.  He has become un-tradable in my eyes, a key piece for this team going forward.

My plan is do anything possible to acquire a top starting pitcher to go along with Darvish, Holland & Harrison and feel good about any match up regular season or post season for the next few years.  A starting rotation like that makes the Rangers a contender every year and an offense less dependant on the long ball to generate offense.

If the Rangers are more than 5 games out at the deadline, I instantly become sellers and move on from veterans like AJ Pierzynski, Lance Berkman, David Murphy, Nelson Cruz & Joe Nathan.  With the exception of Berkman & Murphy, all others should be able to command quality prospects and possibly a top prospect for Cruz.

Speaking of Nelson Cruz, I am done with him as a right fielder, his consistent inability to take proper angles on a ball is just inexcusable. I like the threat of his bat but he's going to get paid like a big time power hitting outfielder which puts him out of my price range. The Rangers aren't shy of spending money but as long as its on the right player. Cruz is a left fielder #5 bat on my team who does not deserve a 5-year $80 contract in my eyes.

The best way to prepare for that departure is trade him now for a piece that can be my right fielder, designated hitter, catcher and fill out the rotation. 

Saturday, June 8, 2013

Cowboys board gets leaked and so?

So the Cowboys board got released, it doesn't matter as much with the draft over with.  It would be devastating had the results been released prior to the draft on the other hand.

What it does do is allow us to follow who the Cowboys could or argue should of had had they really stuck to their own stated philosophy of having a pure draft.  Simply focus on the offensive/defensive lines and get the best player available at those positions.

Using their own board as a starting board.  I will do 2 versions of this, one with the trade made with the Vikings and the other without any trade at all.  If I choose to take a different player than the one Dallas selected then that player is removed completely as impossible to accurately know when they would have gone had Dallas not taken them.

Version I (No Trade)

1st pick - Sharrif Floyd

Second Round pick - Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
 * I would of chosen Sylvester Williams from UNC whom the Cowboys had 4 slots lower than Hunt. I had a fourth round grade on Hunt.

Third Round pick - Jordan Hill, DT from Penn State
* Since I already picked 2 defensive tackles in the draft, I would select the next highest lineman which is UCLA's Datone Jones whom they had 4 slots later.

Fourth Round Pick - Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
* This makes 4 defensive lineman drafted.  The highest available offensive lineman would of been Earl Watford, a guard from James Madison.

Fifth Round pick - Brandon Jenkins, DE
* I pass on Jenkins since already selected 4 defensive lineman, the next highest offensive lineman is tackle Ricky Wagner from Wisconsin.

Sixth Round pick - Mike Buchanon, DE from Illinois
* I pass on Buchanon since already picked 4 d lineman therefore the highest rated o-lineman is Reid Fragel, an offensive tackle.
Version II (with trade)

1st pick - Travis Frederick

Second Round pick - Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
 * I would of chosen Sylvester Williams from UNC whom the Cowboys had 4 slots lower than Hunt. I had a fourth round grade on Hunt.

Third Round pick - Jordan Hill, DT from Penn State
* Since I already picked 2 defensive tackles in the draft, I would select the next highest lineman which is UCLA's Datone Jones whom they had 4 slots later.

 (Second) Third Round pick - Everett Dawkins, DT from Florida State
* Since I already picked 2 defensive tackles in the draft. The next highest offensive lineman is USC Khaled Holmes, also a center. The next highest rated defensive end is Damontre Moore from Texas A&M. The cowboys had a late 3rd round grade on Moore but a early 4th round grade on Holmes.

Fourth Round Pick - Corey Lemonier, DE, Auburn
* This makes 4 defensive lineman drafted.  The highest available offensive lineman would of been Earl Watford, a guard from James Madison.

Fifth Round pick - Brandon Jenkins, DE
* I pass on Jenkins since already selected 4 defensive lineman, the next highest offensive lineman is tackle Ricky Wagner from Wisconsin.

Sixth Round pick - Mike Buchanon, DE from Illinois
* I pass on Buchanon since already picked 4 d lineman therefore the highest rated o-lineman is Reid Fragel, an offensive tackle.

 What does this mean? 

First of all, it confirms one thing we already knew.  The cowboys were complete idiots for trading off 18 with Floyd available.

Second, it confirms something we knew prior to the draft, it was rich in defensive lineman. Every pick except for the trade down in the first round had a defensive lineman as the highest rated lineman available. But thanks to our insane general manager, we took advantage of this defensive lineman rich draft by selecting zero!  Our defensive line is a strength according to Jerry because DeMarcus Ware is there (wrong side of 30 coming of another injury riddled year), Jason Hatcher (wrong side of 30 in last year of contract), Jay Ratliff (wrong side of 30, declining production and DUI pending) and Anthony Spencer (29 and in last year of contract).

Third, the Cowboys did not like the depth of offensive lineman in this draft. They did a good job of not reaching for any offensive lineman, Frederick was the highest rated lineman regardless of offensive/defensive after the trade down to 31. Wish we thought like the most successful teams do in the league, Baltimore took 5 lineman & the 49ers who picked 4 in the draft.

It confirms this organization run by Jerry Jones simply just does not get it. It's important to keep these type of things in mind during the offseason when we drink the Cowboys koolaid and think this team will actually be a serious contender.

The shame is we will look back at this core in the near future and think they were talented enough to be contenders but the failure of the organization not knowing how to manage the cap or build a team kept them from coming close to getting a 6th Superbowl in Dallas.

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Did Jerry Have A Plan On Draft Day?

When Dallas traded down from #18 to eventually pick Travis Frederick at #31, my initial reaction was furious because could of had an elite grade player in Shariff Floyd. Two things can happen to change that feeling.

One: Shariff Floyd can turn into a bust, his short arms, inconsistent motor and lack of production can translate into a inconsistent player that fails to flip the switch and turn into a excellent player for the Vikings.

Two: The player Dallas acquired in the trade, Terrence Williams from Baylor can turn into a solid starting receiver to go along with Dez Bryant and away we go.

It should be noted that whether or not Travis Frederick works out has no change in how I felt about the trade. If Frederick doesn't work out it will only make me more upset about how the draft turned out. You have to get extra value in the trade otherwise you should have just kept your ass where you were.

So, the extra value in that trade is Williams, a 6-2 & 205 pound receiver from the spread offensive at Baylor. Here's an idea of what this kid can do well, as the draft goes along, you reach a point usually in the 3rd round where you look for things the player can do well instead of worrying about what they can't do with 1st or 2nd round picks. I agree with comments made by Bob Sturm..."Williams is an exceptional route runner who gets out of his breaks and is where he is supposed to be.  He has strong body control and also uses his frame to gain position on inside routes with ease at the college level.  He is fantastic against the sideline and catches those balls over his shoulder like a natural.  He also runs the post routes with the type of speed that will crush safeties that bite on a run-fake." DallasCowboys.com writer Bryan Broaddus mentioned Williams' sideline awareness as well as a huge positive during his time at Baylor and seen it during the OTAs.

Now what comes next is things he doesn't well, limited route experience, body catcher and showed on multiple instances to take eye off the ball looking for the safety when running across the middle.  I disagree with Sturm that Williams gets out of his breaks with ease, I saw a player who is slow out of the breaks and really has to power down when changing direction. This was confirmed by his combine results that test for that, the 3-cone drill and 20-yard shuttle. Williams did not finish in the top 10 of all receivers on either test and he was considerably slower than other top receivers in the NFL with similar size coming out of college, AJ Green, Julio Jones & Demaryius Thomas.  You cannot be a big receiver who is slow out of his breaks and a body catcher, if you cannot generate separation you have to have amazing hands to attack the ball for your quarterback and not drop it in tight quarters.

One last thing is Williams did not face hardly any press coverage in college which isn't his fault but always hurts young receivers transition into the NFL making an immediate impact. Usually the rookie receivers who do make instant impacts come out of the slot since they don't have to deal with a corner right on their nose at the snap.

But remember, a 6-2 receiver with good frame and excellent downfield speed who runs good routes, just needs to expand on routes he's familiar with and learn to become a more consistent hand catcher. The point is he needs time and one of the few situations where the cowboys have the luxury of time at receiver.

Look at the wide receiver position for Dallas in 2013, Dez Bryant as your lead without question, Miles Austin as the #2 and when Austin gets hurt (not if but when) you can feel confident about Dwayne Harris being able to make plays on the outside or in the slot. Next up is Cole Beasley that everyone around here wants to see get more chances out of the slot. Factor in redshirt rookie Danny Coale can have a chance to show Garrett what he did for years at Virginia Tech. That is 4 receivers who we know can play on Sundays.  Many were puzzled when Dallas picked Terrence Williams with a premium 3rd round pick and I think they do have a plan for Williams as well as the time to let him learn what has taken Dez two years to do.

The plan is simple, Terrence Williams is the replacement for Miles Austin after the 2014 season.

I've been frustrated by Miles Austin's constant hamstring and overall injury problems, factor in the drops that hurt him in 2012 and emergence of Dez last season, I'm ready to plan for his departure.

The cowboys salary cap mess caused them to restructure Miles Austin's deal which complicates the plan slightly. Here is his cap hit figures for the last remaining years on his contract.

2013     $3,588,400
2014     $8,248,400    
2015     $9,636,400    
2016     $12,558,400

I suggest the plan is to release Austin after the 2014 season, saving Dallas $1.7 million in cap space paying an approx $5.1 cap penalty.

This starts a two year clock for Terrence Williams to learn how to be a NFL receiver and take over for Miles Austin.  The problem is we have 2 years left of Miles Austin's hamstrings, drops and frustrating play to deal with.

Oh and just incase you forgot Jerry, Dez Bryant's contract runs out after that 2014 season and you are going to need that money to pay that man.

It's good to have a plan in place, that is the GM's responsibility, now its on the coach & player to execute it.