No more worthless preseason games, the fantasy drafts are complete and now we get to see what this season will bring.
Every season there is high turnover on the playoff teams and preseason favorites fail to meet expectations for a variety of reasons.
So with that said, let's outline what we can expect in 2018. I will revisit this in February to see how terrible my predictions were. I predicted the Tennessee Titans would win the Super Bowl against the Arizona Cardinals, at least the Titans made it to the divisional round of the playoffs.
Let us begin with who are the most improved teams heading into 2018 whether by coaching change, free agency signing, selections in the draft or performance down the stretch last season.
The Baltimore Ravens were the best team in the NFL to not make the playoffs last year. They have an excellent defense and a physical offense. Joe Flacco is an average QB but he can handle the offense and keep them in close games to win late especially with elite kicker Josh Tucker. The run of dominance for the Steelers ends in 2018 with the improvement from the Browns that makes the division a bit more contested. The Cincinnati Bengals are poised to break out offensively led by Joe Mixon but they just miss out on the playoffs. The AFC North will be one of the most balanced divisions in the league but someone has to come out on top and that will be the Ravens led by their defense.
The Houston Texans are ready to make a run in 2018. DeShaun Watson was well on his way to rookie of the year honors before tearing his ACL after a week 9 loss to the Colts. However, Watson is back and healthy with an improved offensive line. In addition, Romeo Crennel is back at the controls of the defense after Mike Vrabel moved into the Titans head coaching position despite controlling the league worst scoring defense in the NFL in 2017. JJ Watt is healthy and the front 7 is perhaps the strongest in the league with Zach Cunningham in the middle and 3 plus pass rushers in Watt, Mercilus and Clowney. Every defense in football seeks turnovers and the Texans need to do that more in 2018 to be successful, adding Tyrann Mathieu should help combined with a consistent pass rush.
Los Angeles Chargers had the 3rd best defense in the league last season and it got even better adding Derwin James in the draft. The offense is balanced and frankly the rest of the AFC West is open for the taking. The Chiefs are in for a roller coaster of a season with Pat Mahomes at the helm. The Oakland Raiders just traded away their best player Khalil Mack weeks before the start of the season for future draft picks in Jon Gruden's first season back on the sidelines. Finally, the Denver Broncos might have the best combo pass rush in the league with Von Miller and rookie Bradly Chubb but scoring will be at a premium as Case Keenum does not project well to a cold weather team playing in the elements.
The NFC East has been one of the most volatile divisions in football with a different champion in the past 3 years. However, that will not continue in 2018 as the Eagles will repeat as division champs led by a dominating defense and playmaking offense that takes chances consistently. The Giants will be better and although Saquan Barkley will be interesting to watch, their offensive line continues to hold the offense back. Washington's defense becomes a force to keep them in every game but they simply lack the offensive firepower that is past their prime. The Dallas Cowboys should of earned a wildcard with a drastically improved defense and balanced offense that is capable of much more but their inability to convert TDs in the end zone holds them back.
Here are my picks for the divisional champions.
AFC East - New England. They still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichek but 2018 will be their final season together.
AFC North - Baltimore Ravens. They were the best team to not make the playoffs in 2017 and this is more the result of the Steelers falling off drastically that a 9-10 win Ravens team finishes on top.
AFC South - Houston Texans. They have DeShaun Watson and the best defensive front 7 in football.
AFC West - Los Angeles Chargers. The worst division in football and the Chargers have an elite defense ready to take advantage.
NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles. Carson Wentz takes longer than expected to get back on the field but Nick Foles is more than capable of handling the offense until his return. That physical and opportunistic defense keeps them on top.
NFC North - Minnesota Vikings. Its hard to say a team that won 13 games the previous season can be even better but thats exactly the case. They have one of the best rosters in football with improved QB play in Kirk Cousins, healthy Davin Cook and that defense is really good.
NFC South - Atlanta Falcons. They will win with offense just as they did a few years ago.
NFC West - San Francisco 49ers break through in 2018 as they were the hottest team in the league at the end of the regular season last year including the playoff teams. The Rams had an elite offense last year but Jared Goff takes a big step back this season. I am always concerned anointing the offseason champion but adding Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters and Ndamukong Suh could blow up in their face.
Wildcards
NFC - New Orleans Saints paid a huge price in the draft mortgaging a portion of their future for Marcus Davenport suggesting they are trying to make a final run with Drew Brees. One of the most balanced teams in the league.
NFC - Chicago Bears. The most improved team in football with a lights out defense and Jordan Howard becomes the face of the offense. Mitchell Trubisky isn't special but he is a solid starting QB who has one of the most underrated wide receiver corps in football with rookie Anthony Miller and Allen Robinson.
AFC - Tennesse Titans make the playoffs under first year head coach Mike Vrabel but it is Marcus Mariota who takes the team to the playoffs despite their level of talent.
AFC - New York Jets. The surprise of the league led by rookie of the year Sam Darnold. The team exceeds expectations as Darnold plays nothing like a rookie but instead a seasoned veteran leading the team to a surprising 10 win season.
Conference matchups:
San Francisco 49ers beat Minnesota Vikings. I'm sorry Vikings fans but your team lets you down again as the 49ers move on led by Jimmy Garoppolo gets it done.
Houston Texans beat Los Angeles Chargers. DeShaun Watson has shown no stage is too big and he can perform even against the best defense.
Super Bowl winner: Houston Texans. See above.
Enjoy the season everyone. I look forward to revisiting this in February.
