A scouts perspective

A scouts perspective

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Texas Rangers Offseason Plan

Last year, the Rangers were in on every top free agent (Zach Greinke) and potential trade scenarios, remember Justin Upton?

This year, the Rangers are again rumored to be in the mix for several top free agents, Robinson Cano seriously?

As the MLB playoffs move into the Championship Series, I say its time to dive into what the Rangers should do this offseason to get back into a contender.

First, I want to make it clear that I think the Rangers over achieved this year as I had this finishing 3rd in the AL West behind the Angels & Oakland with Texas missing the playoffs.  I was simply not impressed with the Rangers offense built around Nelson Cruz & Lance Berkman.

With that said, let us begin.

By my count, the Rangers have between $25 - $30 million to play with in free agency.  That puts any free agent in the discussion but do you want one mega high profile player or 3-5 mid-level players?

I argue what did Texas in last year was a poor bench (sound familiar?) and an offense that could not hit or get on base especially in the 5-7 spots on the lineup.

The poor bench has been a constant miss under Jon Daniel's watch, this can and must be addressed as Ron Washington will drive his veterans into the ground without a quality bench.

The Rangers already have 2 quality bench players who have proven to hit and be solid versus left handed pitching in Jeff Baker & Craig Gentry.  Baker would need to be resigned.

They need a bat who can hit right handed pitching who can be very affordable while also able to play multiple positions.  I insert Michael Morse here, had a disasterous 2013 with the Mariners after being traded in the offseason from the Nationals.  But he's a career. 280 hitter against righties and. 284 versus lefties. I suggest he will come cheap after such a poor season last year but the guy has a track record for hitting well, can play in the outfield and first base.

Next up is what to do about the catching position.  The Rangers dream would be to get Brian McCann from Atlanta but even if the Braves somehow let him leave, he's a top target across the league and will be able to tell teams what it will take to sign him, sources suggest he will get 90 million over 5 years.  I like McCann the ballplayer but absolutely not worth that type of money.  I move on to my next target.

Introduce Carlos Ruiz from the Phillies.

I have always been a fan of National League catchers, their attention seems to be more on working with pitchers and getting on base anyway they can.  Ruiz has done that for years after being a late bloomer averaging a. 294 BA over the past 4 years that includes a sub-par year in 2013 hitting just. 268.  His price will be below market value with his 25 game suspension this year after posting career numbers in home runs in 2012.  The question will hang over him that if he saw that increase in production naturally or with help?  That should keep Ruiz's price down and willing to take a shorter contract so he can prove he's clean and deserves big money.  I offer Ruiz a 2-year $15 million contract.

I mentioned Lance Berkman earlier and the DH position again needs to be addressed after Berkman will retire and open up the position.  Daniels should fill this void with someone they are extremely knowledgeable about, Kendry Morales from the Mariners.  He's played most of his career in the division moving over from the Angels a year ago.  He was easily the Mariners best hitter, he hit for average and power which is hard to do playing in Seattle.  He earned around $5 million last year and think he does deserve a slight raise in the $7 million range but not excessive considering he offers zero flexibility in the lineup, strictly a DH.

Here's where we stand thus far, 3 players for $16 million total allocating $2M to Morse, $7M to Ruiz and $7M to Morales.  That leaves $20 million left to address my remaining spots, first base and starting rotation.

I want to add depth to my starting rotation in the event someone gets hurt or I need that 5th starter to be an impact starter like last year. I look into someone who's been on the teams radar for years, coming off a subpar season but has track record of pitching well in the AL and willing to take a short term deal to prove he can still get it done.

Josh Johnson from the Blue Jays is that guy.  The Rangers have been involved in trade talks for Johnson for years dating back to when he was with Miami as well as last year at the deadline.  He made $13 million last year but I suggest that salary comes way down after posting career worst ERA, home run to fly ball ratio dating back to 2007.  Johnson will obviously want a multi-year deal but will have to earn it taking a one-year deal after such a poor year, Texas should jump on that.  I offer him a one-year $6.5 million contract.

Finally, first base has been a joke for the Rangers the past several seasons and the worst part is watching previous Rangers have excellent seasons with other clubs, Adrian Gonzales with the Dodgers & Chris Davis in Baltimore to mention a few.

I feel the Rangers need to add some power to that first base position with a right handed bat and upgrade my left handed hitter to play the corner outfield spots.  Jose Abreau is a Cuban defector who thanks to a few loopholes is eligible for total unrestricted free agency into the Major Leagues as a 26 year old rookie.  Recent other Cubans have transitioned well to the Majors after limited time in the minors like Leonys Martin or even no time at all like Yoenis Cespedes in Oakland.  Abreau is a big strong power right handed hitter at the first base position, pure and simple.  Sources confirm Texas is one of 6 teams heavily involved in acquiring Abreau once free agency opens a week after the World Series.

The best part of this deal is I don't cut, trade or send down Mitch Moreland, he becomes my left handed bat who can hit right handed pitching and play the outfield corner spots.  It may not be the drastic upgrade people were expecting over David Murphy but Jurickson Profar is still in my plans to be an every day corner outfielder.

Finally, what do the Rangers do about Nelson Cruz?  Local media reports the Rangers are unsure if they will make a qualifying offer to Cruz which amounts to $14 million dollars. I say yes they should without a doubt, get the draft pick in return if he signs elsewhere and if he does sign it, I'm fine with his bat and he can play left field for my team.  If Cruz does not sign the offer, I make zero effort to resign him and turn my attention to Carlos Beltran who has quietly put together an excellent career and not slowed down still hitting for power and average consistently.

Here's the lineup I give to Ron Washington with these deals.

Lineup
Kinsler
Andrus
Cruz/Beltran
Beltre
Morales
Rios
Ruiz
Abreau
Martin

My goal was to upgrade the 5-7 spots, Morales, Rios and Ruiz gives me 3 hitters all of whom would of hit in the top 4 a year ago.  Second, I wanted to add quality to my bench, this gives me Soto, Moreland, Baker, Morse & Gentry.   Mission accomplished?

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

BYU's Kyle Van Noy

Just watched several games of BYU's Kyle Van Noy. Disappointed honestly as I was expecting a beast capable of taking over a game. I saw that especially vs the Longhorns but other games, I saw a guy who would make about 2-3 plays a game but wildly inconsistent with a real average motor. But when he wants to be, he is as good as Von Miller.

Cannot hold vs the run and will not be a DE in the NFL. Going to have to stay at OLB in a 34 scheme. If he puts together a strong finish to the year, can easily see him being a top 10 pick but with major red flags.

Two biggest red flags when he comes to defenders, average motor and inconsistent tackler. I would attach those labels to him at this point.