Cowboys not going to make playoffs but here's why they will next year.

Gameplan is set, win 3 games and you make the playoffs.  It sounds simple but we know its not going to be easy and we all should know this team does not have the mental strength nor the defense to make that a reality.

I sure as hell hope I'm wrong but a lifelong cowboy fan and a football realist I don't see it happening.  But, that doesn't mean this season was a waste.  Actually this season was far from it, I argue some significant building blocks were established this year for a contender.

Dallas now have 3 high level players on defense up from 2 in 2010.  Sean Lee showed signs of becoming a solid contributor in his rookie season but he increased his game to a pro-bowl level early on in 2011. Of course the knock that continues to plague Lee is durability, it struck again this season with the broken wrist. However when he is on the field, there is little doubt to his impact. A inside force capable of shedding blocks to make plays in the run game and shoot the gaps for tackles behind the line. He is average in coverage but is good in zone coverage, making plays on the ball especially interceptions can offset giving up a few catches. (you hear that Terrence Newman)

Jerry Jones finally guessed right in the draft, Tyron Smith at least. His improvement in one season is tremendous, the footwork and toughness especially. The plan was for Doug Free to man the left side and allow Smith to grow at his more comfortable right tackle position. However with Free's below average performance, that plan could get accelerated for 2012 and switch Free & Smith. Tyron still has a ways to go but he's shown a lot for Jones and Tony Romo to be excited about for the next few years.

They have found a kicker...aslong as you don't ice him with a timeout. Dan Bailey made 26 consecutive field goals during most of the season including 3 game winning kicks. Jerry & Co. tried to committ another awful GM move by keeping David Buehler for just kickoffs even with the 5 yard bump up for kickoffs, unfortunately for Buehler he's on injured reserve. Bailey has secured the job and proved to be a consistent kicker as long as you don't call a timeout right before he lines up for one.

Struck gold in the 3rd round with Demarco Murray, another in a long line of Cowboy runningbacks who begin their career with tremendous stats but rarely carry over. Julius Jones in 2004 (averaging 102 yards over 8 games), Marion Barber in 2006 & 2007 with 24 TDs & Felix Jones in 2008 & 2009 with big plays over 20 yards. Murray looks the part of a full-time back with a burst, vision, and physical runner who can break tackles, then throw in that he's a comfortable receiver too.

Factor in the goldmine steal of Laurent Robinson on the waiver wire who seems to have settled in nicely as the teams 3rd receiver, an area of weakness prior to the season that Kevin Oglretree failed miserably at. You can argue at this point Robinson has moved ahead of Dez Bryant in terms of receivers Romo looks to.

You have a young stud inside linebacker you can build around, an offensive tackle who should move to left tackle to solidify blindside pass protection, a kicker you can trust when the game is on the line (no timeouts), a top young runningback and a young wide receiver as a security blanket.

4 games down, what do we know?

Lets start off with the record, 2 wins and 2 losses.  Just what we all expected.

Be honest, when the cowboys season started everyone had the jets game as a loss, then a win against the 49ers.  Next up were two teams Romo's cowboys have struggled against so you would take a split on the Redskins & Lions.  You end up with a 2-2 record.  Now I will look at how Dallas played in those games but for the moment we are just looking at the record.

Next question, where the strengths and weaknesses of this team prior to the start of the regular season?  We thought the offense would be strong in the passing game, have a solid pass rush and a pro-bowl punter.  Onto the perceived weaknesses; 1) the running game was a huge question mark with Felix Jones getting the starting job away from Marion Barber and Tashard Choice & DeMarco Murray failing to push Jones for carries. 2)  The Dallas offensive line youth movement, could two rookies Tyron Smith & Bill Nagy along with first time starter Phil Costa at center re-energizethe team up front?  3) The kicking situation, being the only team in the NFL keeping two active kickers in Dan Bailey & David Buehler after battling with 3 others in camp? 4)  The entire dallas defense ability to defend the run or the pass, could Rob Ryan fix the worst defense in Cowboys history adding only Abram Elam & Kenyon Coleman?

1) Running game through 4 games

Total Rushing Yards:    347 yards on 101 carries.  Average of 3.4 yards.

Felix Jones    241 yards on 56 carries with a 4.3 yards per carry.  1 touchdown

Here are some stats to wrap your head around the Cowboys lack of running success.

Felix Jones has not run for a single first down in the 1st quarter of any game this season also averaging only 1.9 yards a carry.  Jones runs for an average of 3.3 yards per carry when Dallas is leading the game.  The cowboys leading rusher has rushed for only 33 yards on 11 carries inside the opponents red zone.  Finally, below are the success rate for the running game in short yardage situations (% on 3rd or 4th down with 2 or fewer yards for 1st down or TD & 1st, 2nd goal from opponent 2-yard line or closer)

Running Left: 33%
Running Center: 33%
Running Right: 50%

Status: Under performing

2) Offensive Line Youth Movement

Ranked 11th in NFL in sacks (7) and QB hits allowed (20)

Doug Free bounced back from consecutive below average performances versus the 49ers and Redskins. Bill Nagy has performed pretty well, better in pass protection than getting a push in the running game. Phil Costa improved not having any errors on the shotgun snaps after committing three against the Skins, he's been solid but not shown any great strength to open up running lanes up the middle. Tyron Smith has exceeded expectations for the 9th overall pick not allowing a sack until getting bull rushed on the 2nd to last play against the Lions. His athleticism, strength and toughness have impressed coaches and players holding down the right tackle job requiring little to no help thus far.

Status: Average with room for improvement

3) The kicking situation

Dan Bailey leads the NFL in most field goals made with 12 missing only a 21 yarder vs the 49ers. He nailed a clutch 48 yard field goal to send that game into overtime before eventually winning it. He also leads the league in most field goals made going a perfect 5 for 5 in the 40-49 yard range.

Kickoff Stats:

Buehler10 kickoffs with 5 touchbacks. Given up 24.0 average on kickoff returns.

Bailey 13 kickoffs with 5 touchbacks. Is 8th in the NFL in fewest yards allowed on returns with 22.0

Status: Exceeding expectations

4)  The entire Dallas defense

Before we get to the stats that tell the story, even casual observers can see a difference in this defense. Most improved player easily is 2nd year linebacker from Penn State Sean Lee, a high football IQ and athletic middle linebacker who's made plays stuffing the run at the line and in coverage knocking down a team high 6 passes and hauling in two interceptions. Oh yea, he's also showcasing that natural playmaking ability with two fumble recoveries including the game sealing recovery against the Redskins in week 3.

Rob Ryan's unit has given up 101 points this season averaging 25.2 points per game which ranks 23rd. However if you remove both of Romo's interceptions returned for touchdowns against the Lions, that ranking improves to 12th.

A stats that are clear as day is the Dallas Cowboys defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in yards given up (291.8 per gm) behind the Bengals & Steelers. Also, they rank 1st in the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed (247) and of course yards per game (61.8).  Finally, they are tied at 3rd in the league with the Saints in sacks with 13.

Status: Far exceeding expectations

PRESEASON OVER, LETS GET DOWN TO 53

Okay, worthless preseason and one of the most chaotic offseason/training camp are complete.  Lets see what sleepers make the team and overpaid underperforming veterans get cut.

Quarterbacks (3)
Romo, Kitna, McGee - Easiest position to decide outside of punter.

Runningbacks (4)
Felix Jones
Tashard Choice
DeMarco Murray
Phillip Tanner
- This is probably the most difficult position, Choice is strangely the wild card.  Simply put, Tanner earned his roster spot and will do whatever is asked of him on gameday meaning, special teams. I also like his toughness and has good feel for the position. Choice is the insurance policy, he could be inactive if Felix & Murray perform at a high level.  Dallas should listen to trade offers for Choice, take the draft picks!

Fullback (1)
Chris Gronkowski
- Shaun Chapas did not show me enough to bump Gronkowski off  although injury to Marty B could open the door for Jason Pociask.

Wide Receiver (5)
Miles Austin
Dez Bryant
Kevin Ogletree
Dwayne Harris
Jesse Holley
- Hard to say a season ending injury is a good thing but I wanted to put Raymond Radway on the team and could not find a spot for him. The injured reserve will allow him to rehab and compete for a roster spot in 2012. The best 4 receivers make the team as well as the second best special teams player on the entire roster.

Tight Ends (3)
Jason Witten
John Phillips
Marty B
- Phillips moves ahead of Bennett and should never look back. Jason Pociask could also make this team if feel need another tight end and put Phillips in the H back role during Bennett's recovery.

Offensive Line (9)
Doug Free
Tyron Smith
Ryan Young
Bill Nagy
David Arkin
Kyle Kosier
Montrae Holland
Phil Costa
*Offensive Tackle to be acquired later*
- Jeremy Parnell fails to land the 3rd offensive teackle job, Cowboys should check the waiver wire to land their game day active backup tackle. I think Dallas would be wise to have a center on the practice squad or keep Kevin Kowalski's number available.

Defensive Line (7)
Marcus Spears
Jason Hatcher
Kenyon Coleman
Clifton Geathers
Jay Ratliff
Josh Brent
Sean Lissemore
- Spear's injury and release of Olshansky allows Lissemore to make the team but could change week to week. Rob Ryan should look to sign any ex-Brown or Raider lineman familiar with his scheme. Coleman moves into starting lineup and scouts are intrigued by Geather's potential.

Linebackers (9)
Demarcus Ware
Anthony Spencer
Victor Butler
Alex Albright
Bradie James
Sean Lee
Keith Brooking
Kenwin Cummings
Brandon Williams
- Dallas has no backup outside linebackers capable of stuffing the run except for possibly Brandon Williams which is disturbing.  Thats the only reason William's makes the team, I like Albright's ability to rush the passer but his productivity isn't impressive. Cummings should develop into a special teams demon while Albright isn't active much of the season.

Cornerbacks (5)
Terrence Newman
Mike Jenkins
Orlando Scandrick
Alan Ball
Bryan McCann
- I was torn on keeping McCann or the rookie Josh Thomas, gave the nod to McCann since Dallas has no capable kick returners without Radway. I want Thomas on the practice squad immediately, hopefully he falls through.

Safeties (4)
Gerald Sensabaugh
Abram Elam
Barry Church
Danny McCray
- Church made more plays this preseason than I saw of him all of last season which isn't saying much but I liked what I saw from him. McCray is a special teams leader and did nothing to lose his roster spot.

Special Teams (3)
David Buehler
Mat McBriar
LP Ladouceur
- General rule is when you have 4 options but none are that impressive, just stick to what you had before. I would rather have Dan Bailey over Buehler especially due to lack of importance on kickoffs this year. But this is my prediction on what Jerry Jones & Co. will do.

Youth movement or is Jerry Jones broke?

Dallas cuts Andre Gurode to save more than 5 million dollars off the salary cap paving the way for a complete offensive line overhaul.  Most sports writers and fans completely buy into the Cowboys PR spin on the move, Gurode's release is due to Phil Costa's improvement and Coach Garrett's no non-sense approach to competition with veterans.

This could be true but I don't buy it.  Jerry Jones is broke, he wants to win but the bottom line is forcing his hand in this one. The new stadium isn't paying as well as he hoped and no naming rights meeting his crazy demands means less funds coming his way.

Does it really matter the reason for the veteran overhaul?  I say yes, means that Jerry Jones is still running the show in Dallas, Jason Garrett may get more input since Bill Parcells but doesn't change the fact that Jones is still pulling the strings.

Do you really think Coach Garrett would cut a solid starting offensive lineman that already is going to have two rookies starting on it? Even if the backup Costa had shown enough to win the starting job, a knee injury puts his availability for the season opener in question. Not to mention the opener is against Rex Ryan and the Jets complex blitzing scheme. Should we even consider the fact that for Dallas to be competitive early on in the season, this offense is going to have to put at least 25 points on the board per game. Anyone feel comfortable with a running game that failed repeatedly in short-yardage and redzone with now Felix Jones as the main guy.

Bottom line is this, I don't think Garrett would make this move when the best part of his team is built around a solid passing offense and jeopardize it shaking up the offensive line. This was all Jerry Jones just like it always has been.

Training Camp is under way sort of...

Dallas Cowboys officially opened training camp today in San Antonio at the Alamodome with a "walk-through." Although the lockout is over, free agency has only just begun and teams aren't close to finalizing their roster.

The Cowboys like most NFL teams had to shuffle their roster to get under the agreed upon salary cap of approximately $120 million.  Dallas had plenty of fat to trim off the roster to get under the cap in time but then need additional room to lock up its own free agents, sign draft picks and bring in new veterans.

Add onto that, Dallas is trying to improve itself from a dreadful 5-11 season in 2010 that cost Wade Phillips his job. Then a new coaching staff with first time head coach Jason Garrett and newly brought in defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. Finally, no offseason conditioning program, no medical treatment or mini-camps.

This sounds to me like NFL football from the 1970s when players showed up to camp out of shape, rosters not finalized and coaches hurrying to implement their systems during camp.

The 2011 training camp will be an interesting one for the Cowboys as Coach Garrett tries to establish a youthful, energized and physical frame of mind to a football team that had grown complacement, over-paid, underachieving and cocky.

Here's just a few things to watch out for:

Is there a quarterback competition? A year ago the only quarterback competition was whether or not Stephen McGee has earned the job as the 3rd quarterback or if they should look elsewhere.  Fast forward a year later and now perhaps Tony Romo will have to compete for the starting quarterback job with Jon Kitna. After Romo suffered a broken collarbone mid-way through the season, insert a rusty Kitna but later settled into a rthym with rookie receiver Dez Bryant and Dallas offense didn't slow down as much as feared. However according to Sports Geeks, the field shrunk under Kitna and downfield passing efficiency especially to Miles Austin & Jason Witten.

Can Dallas rebuild their lines?
The primary objective of the offseason was to add talent and youth to both offensive & defensive lines. You can argue Dallas both accomplished and failed to do so as training camp opens today. Dallas used their top draft pick to select Tyron Smith out of USC to hold down the right tackle position for a couple of years until he is ready to man left tackle and eliminate the best pass rushers in the world.  Later in the draft, Dallas selected sleeper offensive guard David Arkin from Missouri State to provide depth and eventually compete for a starting job at guard. Finally in the last round of the draft, cowboys selected Bill Nagy from Wisconsin who had limited starting experience in college but is capable of playing all lineman positions in a pinch.

Despite selecting 3 offensive lineman in the draft, Dallas failed to draft any lineman on the defensive front. The goal was to find a nose tackle capable of starting in the middle of Rob Ryan's 3-4 defense and swing Jay Ratliff out to end so he can wreck havoc and not take as much punishment. The draft class featured several prospects capable of filling the void but each time Dallas went other directions. As of the time I write this Dallas has not yet signed any free agents for their defensive front and instead open camp with only Igor Olshansky with a bunch of undrafted free agent lineman.

Dallas Positional Targets Series: Part One - Safeties

The NFL Draft is 3 weeks away, time to get down to business finding players the Cowboys should target on draft day.

It is a extremely weak safety class with perhaps only one borderline 1st or 2nd round prospect, Rahim Moore from UCLA. After Moore, the next safety may not come until the 3rd round.  Despite a weak class, Dallas has an obvious need at safety and must find a quality player there this year.


Moore is not only the highest rated safety this year but would fit nicely into Dallas' safety plans for 2011. A superior prospect following the 2009 season in which he picked off 10 passes and deflected another seven. The production dipped a lot this past season intercepting only one and four passes broken up. Despite the drop in production, Moore is an ideal center-field type prospect with excellent ball skills, a capable tackler in space and instinctive to make a lot of plays. Lacks top end speed to recover when beaten, only 5-11 1/2 and weighing in at the combine at 202 pounds. It is clear Moore's draft status as a first round pick is based more of his 2009 production than this past season, he is a middle 2nd round pick and a fine player to have in your secondary.


Da' Norris Searcy from North Carolina is arguably the 2nd best safety this year, a solid safety prospect who's draft stock has been steadily rising under the radar. Searcy is a good sized safety at 5-11, 220 pounder who moves well for his size and not a liability in coverage. He is more than capable helping out in run support as well as very athletic individually returning kicks for two seasons. A solid, not great player in the middle rounds who has starting ability at the next level.


Tyler Sash from Iowa is the classic white safety prospect, extremely smart and instinctive but limited athletically. He has solid size at 6-0, 210 pounds but ran around a 4.65 at the combine. He made a lot of players during his days at Iowa, 79 tackles for a safety, 13 career interceptions along with 14 more break ups. His production fell off as a junior in 2010 and then decided to declare for the draft. He gets regarded as extremely smart, instinctive and a coach on the field. He has the intangibles to play the position but is also an underclassmen coming off a subpar season.


Hawaii's safety Mana Silva is an improving prospect with a lot of production, intangibles and experience during his time in Honolulu. He has good size for the position at 6-0 1/2 and weighing in just under 220 pounds, he was not invited to the combine. Despite that, 14 career interceptions as a two-year starter and has the instincts to be a player in coverage. A lot of experience against top passing attacks while also a solid tackler with 159 tackles in two seasons. The work ethic, instincts in coverage and steady improvement make him someone to watch. There is a lot to like about this kid and could really be a find for someone in the middle rounds.

1 month til the draft

Allright, so a month until the draft, does anyone have a clue what Dallas will do at #9?  The answer is no, not even Jerry Jones or anyone in the Cowboys brass. Their scouts are telling them the best players available in the top 10 are at positions the Cowboys do not have a need in or will be already gone by #9. The problem is a pick in the top 10 is considered a blue chip area of the draft and teams are expected to come away with a blue chip player there.

Now what the Cowboys should do will be completely different more than likely what they will do. Here's what they should do...

Trade down to put it simply, an ideal trade partner would be the New England Patriots who possess two picks in the 1st round. Offer would be this.

Dallas Trades:
#9, #40 and a 4th round pick.

New England Trades:
#17, #27 and their late 3rd round pick.

I feel New England needs an elite receiver, A.J. Green from Georgia would give them that. The Pats always have sufficient ammo to move anywhere they want in the draft.

Dallas then has 2 first round picks and 2 third round picks. Now onto what they should do with these.

#17 - Gabe Carimi, offensive lineman from Wisconsin. Day 1 starter at more than likely right tackle but could play either guard position. A solid pass protector and physical run blocker.

#27 - Phil Taylor, nose tackle from Baylor. A massive but athletic run stuffer to plug the middle of Rob Ryan's defense. Former Penn State player before transferring to Baylor, had an amazing Senior Bowl week. This selection also allows Jay Ratliff to move to defensive end giving Dallas a strong 3-4 front.

Third Round Pick(s) - Strength of the draft here is cornerback and offensive line. With regards to cornerbacks, selections there could be Brandon Burton from Utah or Ras-I Dowling from Virginia. I understand the cowboys took Carimi in the first round but I come back to the o-line in the 3rd round. I would select Marcus Gilbert from Florida, a superb pass protecting tackle who can play either tackle spot. Despite his average run blocking, he could make an immediate impact protecting either side from an NFL pass rusher.

I can hear you yelling at your computer, how can you ignore safety?! They need a starting cornerback, what about a 3rd wide receiver, there is no depth at inside linebacker?! You are correct in all of those observations, problem is Dallas simply has too many needs and not enough draft picks to fill all of them in one draft. However there is a consistency in teams that contend for Super Bowls, they are strong along their offensive & defensive line. Dallas must start there if they hope to become a respectable playoff contender again under Jason Garrett.

Good start to offseason

With reports of Rob Ryan being offered the Cowboys D coordinator job and Jerry Jones completing his bullcrap of a head coaching search, have to say impressed with how things have gone thus far.

Unlike most cowboy players & coaches, Jason Garrett earned his promotion to head coach with an impressive finish to a dreadful season. The fact you can see a direct turn around from 1-7 to 5-3 is mind boggling in the modern NFL. The real mystery is whether or not this team turned it around due to Garrett or to the fact Jerry Jones came to the realization that his team sucked and he was willing to clean house.

Under Garrett, the offense improved its consistency but its weaknesses continued toward the end, offensive line and short-yardage running.

The defensive performance was easy and literally true, the worst cowboys defensive unit in the franchises' history. The unit gave up more points than any other previous team in the club's 50 year history. The poor play in the secondary continued, Mike Jenkin's rollercoaster of a career and failure to get offenses off the field on 3rd down. The pass rush disappeared, Anthony Spencer seemed to rush the passer in the ways of Roy Williams' the safety in years past, run into the lineman and make no effort to get around them.

Although the unit does deserve credit for a drastic turnaround in forcing turnovers after the coaching change. Seemed the unit playing in more zone coverage were able to locate the ball better and not drop it. Newman seemed to cut down on his team leading interception drops in a season.

Rob Ryan will inherit a "talented" group on defense with the best pass rusher he's ever had in his 7 year coaching career as defensive coordinator. Jones & Garrett will need to upgrade the defensive unit, adding a legit secondary pass rusher as Spencer has had one good season with four average, the verdict is clear. A few decisions in the secondary need to be made, is Newman worth bringing back for 8 million? Should Mike Jenkins be cut or do you bring back Gerald Sensabaugh?

Stay tuned for sure...