What happened to the Texas offensive line?

The Texas Longhorns offensive line was supposed to be a strength this season.  It has now turned into the achilles heel of a 3-4 team and also makes for a strong argument for why they are not 6-1.

Just prior to the season opener, Tom Herman said, “Excitingly I think our strength on both sides of the ball is the line, offensive and defensive lines.” He added “I think we still need to find a consistent, product right tackle. Those other four guys may be the national championship year at Ohio State that I was a part of, that might be the only other offensive line that could compare with these guys. So I’m excited to see them play.”

The offensive line had already suffered one injury when Herman made this statement as junior Elijah Rodriguez went down with an ankle injury a week into fall camp. He was the top backup in 2016 appearing in every game and starting 3 at multiple positions. Rodriguez was leading the battle for the right tackle job over incumbent Tristan Nickelson and talented sophomore Denzel Okafor at the time of his injury. The staff had already lost another tackle in former top recruit Jean Delance who decided to transfer to Florida just prior to the season.

Even with the losses, here is the group Herman was confident with heading into the season.

1.        Connor Williams, LT

2.        Patrick Vahe, LG

3.        Jake McMillon, RG

4.        Elijah Rodriguez, RT (Suffered ankle injury August 8^th)

5.        Zach Shackelford, C

The team planned to use 3 backups regularly to have a solid 8-man rotation on game days.

6.        Patrick Hudson

7.        Tristan Nickelson

8.        Denzel Okafor

So, what happened?

The season ending injury to Rodriguez prior to the season immediately forced offensive line coach Derek Warehime into his depth inserting senior Tristan Nickelson into the lineup at RT vs Maryland. Nickelson has struggled to execute his blocks due to his 6-10 frame making it difficult to generate leverage against his opponent. He also lacks the quick feet to consistently handle speed rushers on the outside.

You may recall that Connor Williams had his worst game while at Texas vs Maryland giving up pressure and  committing 2 crushing holding penalties late in the 4^th quarter.  Patrick Vahe struggled in pass protection causing Shane Buechele to run for his life even when the opponent brought just 3 defenders. The line struggled to pick up blitzes primarily due to miscommunication instead of ability, adding to the frustration at a perceived strength of the team.

Texas dominated San Jose State 56-0 in week 2 and one of the highlight plays in the game was redshirt freshman guard Patrick Hudson helping Chris Warren into the endzone for a score in the 2^nd half. Unfortunately, on the next possession, Hudson suffered a torn ACL in his knee and would be lost for the season.

Herman has now lost his starting right tackle and his top interior backup lineman. This makes the line extremely thin and not able to withstand any more injuries or underperforming starters heading into week 3.

The most devastating injury of all strikes in that week 3 matchup vs USC as left tackle Connor Williams goes down with a knee injury.  This forces Denzel Okafor into the game to play on the right side and Nickelson to flip to the left. Okafor has all the tools for the position and Herman was hopeful he would earn more playing time possibly starting this season. However, the plan was not to play him extensively unless he earned it based on performance.

Texas enters conference play down 3 linemen from their top 6, has zero depth and weak at offensive tackle to run the ball on the perimeter and making them vulnerable on the pass rush.

During the bye week after USC, Herman decided to further change things up and give an opportunity to true freshman Derek Kerstetter over Okafor at right tackle.  The three-star recruit Kerstetter impressed Herman during the bye week with his toughness and willingness to get physical in the trenches. “He’s still got years worth of development from a strength and size standpoint to work on. But this is a guy that’s going to scratch and claw and scrape for everything and give you everything he’s got to make sure his guy doesn’t make the tackle,” Herman said.

Let’s take another look at the top lineman as the Longhorns enter conference play vs Iowa State.

1.        Connor Williams, LT (hurt knee Sept 16^th, underwent surgery)

2.        Patrick Vahe, LG

3.        Jake McMillon, RG

4.        Elijah Rodriguez, RT (hurt August 8^th with high ankle sprain and season ending surgery)

5.        Zach Shackelford, C

6.        Patrick Hudson, OG (Torn ACL Sept 9^th ending his season)

7.        Denzel Okafor, OT (Dropped due to performance)

8.        Tristan Nickelson, LT

9.        Derek Kerstetter, RT

As a result, the offense began to grind to a halt and failed to generate yards outside of the improvised Sam Ehlinger rollout and just find someone open.

The unit is hit again in their next game October 7^th vs Kansas State when right guard Jake McMillon suffers a hand injury. Without any quality depth, the team turns to junior Terrell Cuney to start at guard against Oklahoma. Cuney arrived at Texas in 2014 as a highly touted center recruit but has only played in 4 games over 3 years in Austin.

The injury to McMillon caused him to miss 2 games and also appeared to have severely impacted sophomore center Zach Shackelford. He’s since had issues snapping the ball and handling bull rushers lined up on his nose at the snap. He lacks the strength to be able to anchor and doesn’t have the support from McMillion he had earlier in the season. Pressure up the middle at the snap is the easiest way to disrupt an offense and Shackelford was unable to prevent this against Oklahoma State in their latest loss.

As Texas prepares to travel to Waco to face the winless Baylor Bears, the aforementioned Shackelford will be sidelined with a concussion missing his first game of the season. Cuney should start at center as McMillon returns to the lineup.

While offensive coordinator Tim Beck can be criticized for his lateral offense and refusal to use the middle of the field, this offensive line restricts the offense’s ability to compete consistently.

Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells says, “you are what your record says you are” and these Longhorns are a bad football team with a 3-4 record.

What would you change about the NFL?

NFL viewership is down.

You may be aware that Nielsen recently reported that total viewership is down 7.5% from this time last year and it has gotten the attention of the commissioner and the owners.

There are several suggestions as to why, consider these:

• National anthem protest
• Lack of toughness on domestic abuse
• Roger Goodell's handling of Ray Rice and Zeke Elliott
• Quality of play (too many penalties and length of games)

Whatever the reason might be, the stats are clear.

Local television markets and national viewership are down for the NFL when comparing to last season or even since 2013.

It is true that ratings are down across the board but this is primarily due to cord cutting and other options available to customers.

But make no mistake, NFL owners and Goodell are concerned about this and have already met to try and figure out what they can do about it.

It made me think, what would I change about the game to make me come back to watch every game available to me?

What would you change to make you want to come back to the NFL?

Here is what it would take for me...

1. Remove the weekly Thursday night game and reinstate the afternoon doubleheader on Fox and CBS.  One of the best things about college football is having so many games to choose from at any given time and able to switch to watch whichever game is the most interesting.  There is also a competitive impact to teams playing on a short week or another having more days to rest and prepare.
   
2. Reduce the NFL preseason by two and add them to the regular season.  The players are going to demand this when the current labor deal expires in 2021.  Currently, owners do not have to share preseason revenue with players nor other owners. Adding them to the regular season is a benefit to players as potentially more money for the same risk they had been facing anyway.
   
3. Injury reports must be filed with the league office by 8am EST every Sunday during the regular season including the Monday night game.  Coaches should be able to keep this information private during the week for game planning and preparation.  There are obvious gambling and fantasy impacts so that is the reason for a uniform deadline to submit all injury reports.
   
4. Allow players who participate in less than 10% of offensive or defensive snaps to have unlimited access to the team facility during the offseason.  The players union demanded less offseason work and practice time during the last CBA but this has negatively impacted the quality of play. It has also hurt the ability for bottom of the roster players to develop from one season to another without any development leagues for them to improve.
   
5. Eliminate the 45 man game day roster. This rule was obsolete 30 years ago and has survived for no good reason. If you are on the 53 man roster, you are eligible to play.
   
6. Reduce replay challenges to 1 per half and any successful challenge allows to team to retain their challenge. In addition, all reviews should be conducted in the booth and the results communicated to the head referee. It is inefficient to require the referee to review a monitor on the field when the booth is already set up to do this.
   
7. Simplify what is a catch. The NFL has lost their way in determining what is a catch and seem to have allowed lawyers to write the rule book using the most confusing language possible. A catch is a receiver who gets 2 feet down in the field of play with possession. No more what happens if he goes to the ground, no more what is a football move or did he maintain control.
   
8. Reduce penalties across the board.  


• Any non-personal fouls committed by the receiving team on a special teams play are automatically dismissed if the receiving team elects a touchback or fair catch.
  
• Eliminate the illegal contact penalty.  Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy are out of the league and the penalty they pushed to create needs to go as well.  This has dramatically shifted advantage to the offense and the passing game allowing QBs to dice up defenses with relative ease. There needs to be competitive balance in games and defenses need this one back.  The rule designed by Manning and Dungy to beat the Patriots got them one championship but it didn't stop Brady and Belichek. It did open the floodgates for every other QB in the league though.
  
• Eliminate the tuck rule.  Speaking of those Patriots, we all know that is a stupid rule and should of been removed following that season.

What would you change to make you want to come back to the NFL?

2017 NFL Season Preview

The 2017 season begins Thursday with the champion New England Patriots hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.

No more worthless preseason games, the fantasy drafts are complete and now we get to see what this season will bring.

Every season there is high turnover on the playoff teams and preseason favorites fail to meet expectations for a variety of reasons.

So with that said, let's outline what we can expect in 2017.  I will revisit this in February to see how terrible my predictions were.

Let us begin with who are the most improved teams heading into 2017 whether by coaching change, free agency signings and selections in the draft.

The Cincinnati Bengals have added a lot of weapons offensively to go with an improved defense that shapes well for them this season.  They will have to survive the first few weeks due to suspensions and tough 4 game stretch.  I like the backfield of Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard, Jeremy Hill will not be the season long feature back.  Andy Dalton is not an elite QB but he is solid and should benefit by throwing the ball less as they run with success.  The wildcard is their offensive line which is not a strength.  If defenses shut the run down early and forces Dalton to throw more then their season could take a turn.  I expect the Bengals get off to a 1-3 start but they get on a run becoming one of the hottest teams heading into the playoffs.

The Houston Texans will be better for 2 simple reasons.  No more Brock Osweiler and healthy return of JJ Watt.  Tom Savage won the starting job away from rookie DeShaun Watson and he is a steady QB who will throw the ball downfield and past first down markers on 3rd down, neither of which Osweiler did on a regular basis.  They have a deep backfield with Lamar Miller and I think D'onta Foreman will end up getting the second most carries by season's end ahead of Alfred Blue. The only concern is the offensive tackle situation, the ongoing contract dispute with left tackle Duane Brown and loss of right tackle Derek Newton.  An offense can slow down to a crawl even with a real good QB if the offensive line struggles, just watch Seattle.

Los Angeles Chargers are not a deep team but they have good cornerstone pieces.  They remind me of the Raiders from a season ago that can surprise people led by their franchise pass rusher in Joey Bosa and talented offense.  They would be wise to utilize a 2 TE offense to get Hunter Henry on the field with Antonio Gates.  They have a tough schedule which will keep them from winning the division but they survive to take a wildcard spot.

The NFL is a copycat league and the Arizona Cardinals are going to force a change in how teams play defense to slow down the pass happy offenses.  They are deep and good on the defensive line and extremely versatile at linebacker. Watch out for Haason Reddick who can run like a safety, rush like an end and hit in space like a linebacker.  Deone Buchanan got the job to start the season but that won't last long.  The blueprint of strong rushing attack and a dominating defense often leads to the playoffs.

Each season a young team breaks out to become a contender, two years ago it was the Carolina Panthers, last year it was the Raiders and this year I think it will be the Tennessee Titans.  They remind me of the Dallas Cowboys a year ago, young solid QB with a deep backfield, elite offensive line and a defense that finds a way to keep the opponent out of the end zone despite not getting turnovers.  Their schedule is not overly intimidating and young QBs that are playoff contenders break through by their 4th season in the league.  Marcus Mariota is entering his 3rd season and I think this team is poised to make a serious run.

While every team makes improvements, some get too much hype that I do not see translating into wins on the field.  They might help you dominate your fantasy league but thats the only championships their stats will earn this season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are loaded at the skill positions and teams featured on Hard Knocks always energize fanbases but it is a false hope in my opinion.  You should not ever trust a team that is lead by a dumb football player at the most important position.  Jameis Winston is a dumb player, he is reckless with the ball and is not aware on the field. He is the perfect fantasy and video game QB but he is not someone you can win a championship with at this point.

The Minnesota Vikings spent a lot of money in free agency and the draft to fix their offense but failed to improve the most important position.  Sam Bradford is terrible and although their rushing attack should be better with Davin Cook and an improved offensive line but it isn't enough.

Here are my picks for the divisional champions.

AFC East - New England.  They still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichek.

AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals.  Every NFL season there is high turnover amongst the playoff teams and the Bengals take the division from the Steelers.

AFC South - Tennessee Titans. Surprise team of the league who beat the Texans for a division in a physical close race all season.

AFC West - Oakland Raiders.  They take a step back this season as Lynch fails to generate a consistent rushing attack causing Carr to throw the ball way more than he should. Still good enough to win the division.

NFC East - New York Giants. That defense is still just as good and the Cowboys regress allowing the Giants a window. Their offensive line and rushing attack is still not good enough but those passing weapons and defense will carry them all season.

NFC North - Green Bay Packers. They still have Aaron Rodgers and the Pack take the division if the Lions are the only other competition.

NFC South - Carolina Panthers. This has more to do with the Falcons than it does the Panthers. Atlanta's passing attack regresses and the defense which allowed more than 25 points per game last year fails to improve. Carolina's rushing attack with a healthy Cam Newton and rookie of the year Christian McCaffery becomes a sight to see.

NFC West - Arizona Cardinals. The Cards win an ugly style of football led by physical defense and a power rushing attack.  The Seahawk's slide conti
nues as their offensive line fails to protect Wilson or generate any consistent rushing attack.

Wildcards
NFC - Dallas Cowboys.  Dak Prescott has another strong year but throws the ball more in his second season due to Zeke's suspension which causes an increase in turnovers. However the defense becomes the achilles heel and a tough schedule forces another early round exit.
NFC - Washington Redskins. Kirk Cousins puts together an entire season of quality play and they win the wildcard in week 17.

AFC - Houston Texans. Both the Titans and Texans are good teams but only one can win the division.
AFC - LA Chargers. There is turnover every year in the playoffs and I see the Chargers as the 2017 version of the Chiefs.

Super Bowl matchup:

Tennessee Titans vs Arizona Cardinals

The Titans win the championship behind a young QB, a tremendous offensive line and power rushing attack with an opportunistic defense.

Enjoy the season everyone.  I look forward to revisiting this in February.

Texas loses against Maryland - Morning After

The Tom Herman era begins the way Charlie Strong's ended.  A disappointing loss in front of the home fans.

Now that we have had a chance to let the initial frustration fade away, is there anything positive to take away from the season opener?

There isn't much to feel good about offensively.  Coaching and execution were poor to say the least.

This play call reminded me of the infamous Gregg Davis, Mack Brown's offensive coordinator while at Texas.  It is 4th and 5 and the primary read is only one yard downfield.  The probability of success is extremely low.

However I am willing to say that Texas might have a dynamic playmaker in Reggie Hemphill-Mapps. Texas has been beyond dreadful in the special teams return game but Reggie made a highlight reel play.  The redshirt freshman had to break a tackle and walk the tight rope along the sideline to take it the distance to keep Texas hopes alive.  Offensively he added 7 receptions and Herman needs to make sure he is on the field as much as possible to add a big play element to an offense that appears to be lacking one.

The underwhelming performance on offense starts with the line.  Coach Herman said just a week ago 4 of the starters on the line compared to the national championship squad at Ohio State.  But that is not who showed up yesterday.  Preseason All-American Connor Williams gave up several pressures and multiple holding penalties.  Veteran guard Patrick Vahe #77 failed to pick up stunts effectively giving up pressure even when Maryland brought only 3 defenders on the rush.

RG Jake McMillon and RT Tristian Nickelson weren't on the same page allowing a free blitzer to sack Buechele who was running for his most of the day.

Buechele was slow on his decision making, he held the ball too long when he did have time and did not show the accuracy that made Herman say "He's the most accurate guy I've coached."  Shane failed to properly read the defense and either did not or could not change the play.  Multiple times Texas ran right into blitzes that were telegraphed in pre snap or adjust the pass play to beat the defense.

True freshman Sam Ehlinger needs to be given an opportunity if Shane continues to struggle in his decision making and accuracy.

Defensively Texas will be okay.  They are built to attack passing offenses which are the norm in the Big 12.  The problem is they MUST be able to stop the run on early downs.  This will allow Texas to unleash their multiple explosive blitzers from different areas on the field.  Coordinator Todd Orlando flashed this package of 1 DL, 4 LBs and 6 DBs on 3rd downs early in the game before the score forced them to keep lineman on the field to try and stop the run.  It didn't work.

Malik Jefferson flashed early in the game but missed tackles and issues getting off blocks showed up again which has plagued him at Texas. Highly touted transfer Gary Johnson should see the field more often in place of Jefferson if that continues.

Jefferson #46 is in the middle of the defense and is responsible for the gap left of the center and fails to bring down the back in the hole leading to a big gain.

Sophomore Brandon Jones #19 struggled in secondary again which drew comparisons to his first collegiate start against Oklahoma State when he looked lost.  He allowed runners to get to the perimeter of the defense instead of forcing them back inside to his teammates.

This one lead to a score for Maryland.

On another occasion Jones appeared to jump an intermediate route in deep coverage and allow a receiver to get over the top for another score.  Jones is the most talented safety on the roster but he has a ways to go to become the player he's capable of.

The player of the game was Holton Hill with his 2 TDs and multiple strong tackles to get the defense off the field on 3rd down. He lost his confidence under Strong and Co. but is off to a good starter this year.  All of the corners need to improve their ability to locate the ball and make a play on it when in position.

Different coaching staff, same problems with special teams.  They started against Oklahoma State in 2016 and have continued now under Herman.  The left guard protector allows instant penetration at the snap leading to the block.

Next up, #4 ranked USC.

2017 NFL Draft - How Did The Cowboys Do?

The 2017 NFL Draft is a wrap.  It is time to break down who the Dallas Cowboys selected and how they fit into the team this season.

The Cowboys came into the draft needing help on defense wherever they could find it.  The priority was to upgrade the pass rush and then upgrade the secondary that lost four contributors in free agency.

Dallas addressed the pass rush in the opening round selecting Taco Charlton from Michigan.  He projects best to be a plus strong side edge rusher capable of getting 8 sacks per season.  I compared him to former Cowboy Greg Ellis.

You can find my article breaking down Charlton's game here. Where does Taco Charlton fit in Dallas.

They addressed their secondary in the second round selecting Chidobe Awuzie from Colorado.

Awuzie has a compact frame who is one of the most physical corners in the draft.  He is not afraid of contact nor mixing it up with receivers.  He is a good tackler which is rare for a corner, able to blitz when lined up in the slot and providing solid coverage.  He is comfortable playing on the line of scrimmage attacking the receiving or off the line in man coverage.  He will look to make a play on the ball but he is not a playmaker who gets turnovers though totaling just three INTs during his career.

I project Awuzie to be a starter at cornerback on the outside week one and could slide inside to play nickel on passing situations.  He was a weapon in college blitzing from the slot and causing impact plays behind the line of scrimmage. Defensive Coordinator Rod Marinelli would be wise to use him the same way in the NFL.

The Cowboys added another corner in the third round selecting Jourdan Lewis from Michigan.

Lewis is a smaller corner than Awuzie measuring just 5'10" and 188 pounds at the combine.  He has plenty of talent to be a starting corner in the NFL who is one of the best in the country knocking passes away from the receiver.  However he needs to improve his technique and keep his hands off the receiving downfield.

Below are some examples of what I mean.

Lewis is matched up against fellow third round pick Chris Godwin from Penn State at the bottom of the screen.  He is matched up right on the nose of Godwin, he tries to get his hands on him but Godwin just easily gets a clean release and open on a crossing route.

In the NFL, Lewis has got to become more physical and use better press technique when he needs to prevent a clean release for the receiver like that.  Remember the NFC East is home to some of the biggest and most physical receivers in the league.

He is again lined up on the nose of the receiver but allows a clean release to the inside on a go route.  The throw hangs in the air and allows him to recover to get his hand in there to prevent the catch. However if he prevents the clean release at the line, the QB doesn't even look his way. In the NFL, a receiver with a step is open for a QB and they can fit in the ball in that space.

I project Lewis to be the third corner on the depth chart able to line up on the inside and perhaps on the outside assuming he improves his technique.

Dallas went away from the defense and selected wide receiver from North Carolina Ryan Switzer in the fourth round.

Basically, Switzer is a Cole Beasley clone.  He measured just 5'8" and 181 at the combine which is just 7 pounds more than Beasley.

On film, the two are almost identical. Switzer is that quick slot receiver type who runs good routes, able to beat any defender in man coverage and has excellent hands. I like Switzer's long speed better as he was able to beat defenses up the seam and downfield with regularity in school.  However the reason he was drafted was his value as a punt returner with 7 career TDs in college.

Dak Prescott's ability to convert 3rd downs (10th best in the NFL) was partly due to Beasley being a consistent option in the middle of the field. Now they have another option that can beat any defender in man coverage underneath and return punts effectively.

Jerry Jones and Co. returned to the defensive side of the ball in the 6th round trading away their 2018 5th round pick to select Xavier Woods, safety from Louisiana Tech.  Dallas brought in Woods prior to the draft and reportedly would of been their selection had Switzer not been available in the 4th round.

Woods is a versatile safety who lined up all over the place at Louisiana Tech.  He has the size of a corner at 5'11" and 197 pounds but he was used in a variety roles.  He played down in the box as an extra run defender on early downs and then moving out to cover slot receivers on passing downs or trusted to man the middle of the field in obvious passing situations.

Bottom line, Xavier Woods is a playmaker at safety.  He caused fumbles (6), caught INTs (14) and returned 2 of them for scores during his college career.

He is not without flaws though, he lacks long speed and cannot be left in man coverage in the NFL against any receiver with speed. Receivers were able to get over the top of him too often on film and that will be exposed in the NFL. His lack of size presents challenges whether he can continue to cause impact plays in the box against the run. He isn't a polished tackler, he needs to break down better in space and bring down players without just diving for their feet.

I project Woods to compete for a starting job next to Byron Jones at safety by seasons end but at the very least, he will see plenty of snaps in nickel and dime defense at deep safety to patrol the middle of the field.  Keep in mind that Dallas likes to use Jones to eliminate the offenses best 3rd down receiving threat and Woods could allow them to be more aggressive on 3rd downs to get the opponent off the field.

Their next selection was Marquez White, cornerback from Florida State.  This is a classic example during the later stages of the draft, you ignore the flaws of a prospect and instead focus on what they can do.  Marquez White has good athleticism, fluid hips and able to transition from the backpedal to run downfield with ease. He can cover NFL receivers in man coverage next year.  But his technique is poor, he is not physical with receivers and that will be a problem in this division.  In addition, White simply wants nothing to do with run support, he is not aggressive in the least trying to bring down backs or receivers that aren't his man.  They might have something if he takes to coaching, improves that technique and becomes just an average tackler willing to support his teammates in bringing down the ballcarrier.

In the 7th round, Dallas took Joey Ivie (IV) from Florida who is a puzzling prospect.  Following the 2015 season, Ivie had the look of a top 100 selection who could play either tackle position with good quickness, strength and upside as a pass rusher.

This was week II of the 2015 season against East Carolina.  He wears #91.

However now he has lost all that athleticism and lacks the strength to make any plays in the NFL.  He was asked to gain weight at the cost of what made him a prospect following his junior season.

I think the kid needs to cut 20 pounds to get down to the 285 he played at as a junior to see if he can regain that athleticism and Dallas might have something here.  Its worth a shot.

Dallas returned to the wide receiver position selecting Noah Brown from Ohio State mid way through the 7th round.  Brown declared for the draft after his sophomore season leaving 2 years of eligibility on the table.  He should have returned to school to improve his draft stock but he is a big physical receiver who has some upside who can make plays on the underneath and intermediate routes.  He will struggle to create separation but he likes to make the difficult catch especially in the redzone.

With their final pick, Dallas returned to Colorado to add another defensive lineman, this time selecting Jordan Carrell.  He is a big bodied interior tackle who might flash as a run stuffing one technique but his film was unimpressive.  I did not see quickness, strength nor a capable bull rush to suggest he is a prospect.

Dallas' goal was to update the pass rush and their secondary.  I think they came away with 3 starters (Charlton, Awuzie, Lewis) and 2 key rotational players (Switzer and Woods).

Mission accomplished.

The Houston Texans select Carlos Watkins, DT, Clemson

Carlos Watkins, Clemson, #94

Game Film Evaluated:

Virginia Tech (2016)

Troy (2016)

Ohio State (2016)

Summary: Very powerful lineman, controls his gap with ease. Not overly quick or explosive, definitely not a 3 technique tackle. He can keep his feet moving toward the pocket and very strong hands. He is relentless in his pursuit to the ball and QB. He is able to knock lineman on their heels and work his way to the ball. He is not polished in his technique at all, very raw and has no feel for pass rush moves to getting off blocks. He is not overly explosive on tape who can burst off the snap. He finds a way to the QB and gets the job done despite lack of proper technique and consistent use of pass rush moves. 

Carlos Watkins is a solid prospect and will be a starter in the NFL but has a limited ceiling in my opinion. He can maintain his effective performance on the field with improved technique but the lack of quickness and burst off the line will limit the sacks at the next level. I project Watkins to a one technique in a penetrating scheme that wants upfield attackers as a late 2nd round player.

The Houston Texans select Julien Davenport, OT, Bucknell

Julien Davenport, Bucknell, #70

Game Film Evaluated:

VMI (2016)

Summary: Julien Davenport has the look of a professional tackle. He has good quickness and the potential footwork to play the position at the next level. He has a long way to go with technique, proper hand placement and keep the feet moving. He shows excellent ability to stick in pass protection, stay upright, doesn’t get caught reaching or bending at the waist. He has got to add more fire to his game, doesn’t block to the whistle and fairly limited effort in plays once it leaves his area. He can get to the next level and needs to keep the feet moving to round out his game. He will get a eye opening experience at the senior bowl but the ability is there, he will struggle on day one but the key is whether he improves throughout the week. If he does, I would most definitely take a flyer on him. 

Julien Davenport is a late round to priority free agent type prospect but he would jump into the 5th round depending on the amount of improvement he shows in Mobile.

The Dallas Cowboys select Ryan Switzer, WR, North Carolina

Ryan Switzer, North Carolina, #3

Game Film Evaluated:

Pittsburgh (2016)

Florida State (2016)

North Carolina State (2016)

Summary: Quick and fast slot receiver type. He can get in and out of breaks with top speed. He can make plays downfield and bust up the middle of a defense. He played exclusively out of the slot on the games observed. He has long speed and he can adjust to make the difficult catch. Very good hands who can haul it in away from his body. 

Ryan Switzer is a plus slot receiver prospect who can make plays underneath and also take advantage of defenders jumping his underneath stuff to bust the seams of a defense. He can recognize coverage and shows ability to run option routes. He is not physical in blocking nor someone who can handle defenders who try to muscle him off his routes. He only played in the slot in college but he might be able to line up on the outside and use his quickness to shake defenders. At worst he is a solid slot receiver who can make become a 3rd down machine to keep the chains moving. 4th round grade.

2017 NFL Draft - Best Available for Day III

Day III is the scouts day.

Anyone can have an opinion on the first round prospects and even guys taken on day II.  However all the hard work of the scouts is going to make or break a team's draft today.

Whether or not a team can withstand injuries will be determined today.

Whether or not a team will have to overpay other teams free agents to address depth issues will be determined today.

This is point in the draft when the reward exceeds the risk for every prospect.

It is all about what a player can do instead of worrying what they can't do.

Impact players at every position will be selected today, even the most rare gems of all, a QB as Dak Prescott proved last year.

It is on the scouts and general managers to find them.

Here are the players I think can be impact players in the NFL as day III selections.

You can find a QB who can start in the NFL and outperform guys taken in the first round.  Nathan Peterman from Pittsburgh doesn't have the elite arm but he has more than enough to make all the throws.  I think he would be a perfect successor for Drew Brees in New Orleans and starts in this league by year 3.

You can find starting RBs who bring speed and power to any teams backfield.  T.J. Logan from North Carolina, Jeremy McNichols from Boise State and Corey Clement from Wisconsin.

You can find a more than solid possession receiver to compliment a speedster in Isaiah Ford from Virginia Tech.  You can also find one of the most productive receivers in college last year in Chad Hansen from California.  A productive receiver with character concerns in Dede Westbrook at Oklahoma.  Every team looks for that super quick slot receiver and you can find Ryan Switzer from North Carolina.

Need a tight end, there are several to choose from.  Jordan Leggett from Clemson, Michael Roberts from Toledo and Jake Butt from Michigan.

Need a swing tackle who can play either position on game days?  Conor McDermott from UCLA.

There are lots of guards available who can start as rookies.  Isaac Asiata from Utah. Dorian Johnson from Pittsburgh, Jermaine Eluemunor from Texas A&M and Damien Mama from USC.

Need a pass rusher, there are a lot to choose from.  Carl Lawson from Auburn, Al-Quadin Muhammad formerly from Miami, Ejuan Price from Pittsburgh, Josh Caraway from TCU, Devonte Fields from Louisville and Joe Mathis from Washington.

The defensive tackle position has tons of talent available with Carlos Watkins from Clemson, Ryan Glasgow from Michigan, Jake Replogle from Purdue and Jaleel Johnson from Iowa.

There are three starting corners just sitting out there.  Howard Wilson from Houston who is a plus zone corner.  Both Damontae Kazee from San Diego State and William Likely from Maryland are amongst the best nickel corners in the draft and those guys play as much as anyone on defense.

There are four safeties who can challenge for a starting job this year.  Tedric Thompson from Colorado, Rayshawn Jenkins from the U, Jadar Johnson from Clemson and Desmond King who needs to convert from corner at Iowa.

That's over 30 prospects who can make an impact next year still available at every position.

2017 NFL Draft - Day II Morning After

The opening round is exciting to get the draft started but the value of every draft comes in the first 100 picks.  Every selection made except for QB in the first 3 rounds should contend for a starting job as a rookie period.

That is the bar every top 100 selection should be judged to determine whether someone used their opening round momentum and carried into Day II or recovered from missing in the first round to add some affordable and talented rookie starters.

Teams that hit on their top 100 picks are able to stay ahead of their salary cap, avoid paying expensive free agent players from other teams and quickly transform their starting lineups with good young players.

Playoff teams over value their rosters thinking their previous season's record will simply repeat itself and they can afford to take more chances with these picks.  This combined with the harder schedule is why I feel there is roughly a 50% turnover in playoff teams year after year.

Lets see who made the most of their second and third round selections.

Cincinnati recovered nicely after a disastrous selection of John Ross in round one.  They brought in Joe Mixon and Jordan Willis who are both starting caliber players on the field. Ofcourse Joe Mixon brings baggage but this is nothing new for the Bengals. They have consistently had no problem taking players with character concerns. Josh Shaw, Vontaze Burfict, Chris Henry to name a few. Joe Mixon the player is the best running back in the draft and they get him at pick #48 overall. He joins a crowded backfield with Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill but Mixon is a better back than both of them. He won't have the job handed to him and the message is clear, his behavior impacted his money in the NFL and that is unfortunately the only lesson our current system allowed him to learn.  The other guy Jordan Willis was a poor workout guy but top production player on film at Kansas State. He plays big and athletic to get after the QB from the edge and I think he surprises people as a rookie as a top rotational guy who can press for a starting job by season's end.

The best GM in the NFL is Ozzie Newsome and he owned Day II of the draft.  He gets the best athlete in the draft behind Myles Garrett in Tyrus Bowser from Houston.  He can line up anywhere, terror as a blitzer, cover anyone in space and rush the passer.  Now he's raw for sure but the ability to make an impact is there without question.  Chris Wormley is a solid interior lineman who can play both positions and be a top rotational player.  Then he hit it out of the park in the 3rd round with Tim Williams from Alabama.  He is an elite speed rushing terror on the outside who will terrorize QBs.  Now he was available in the 3rd round because passing the drug test will be a challenge for him but the risk was far worth the potential value.  Landing an elite first round talent pass rusher in the mid 3rd round is potentially a home run.

The Arizona Cardinals are set on defense with 2 studs in Haason Reddick and Bubba Baker who are both versatile day one starters. Reddick is a plus weapon in coverage, can blitz from anywhere and blow up plays in the backfield. Baker is undersized but he is a playmaker and a terror near the line of scrimmage.  Not every team could handle these type of prospects and incorporate them into an NFL defense properly but the Cardinals are one of those teams.  They simply want athletes on their defense, speed and aggressiveness to attack offenses.  Check those boxes for Reddick and Baker.

The Buffalo Bills did a good job with two 2nd round picks, acquiring Zay Jones and Dion Dawkins. Jones surprised teams at the combine running an impressive 4.45, he was projected as a 4.6 guy based on his tape. I still think Jones is primarily an underneath and intermediate type receiver in the NFL who runs good routes and able to make the difficult catch in traffic.  Dion Dawkins could play tackle but I like him much better as a guard. Good players and day one starters.

Dallas addressed their defensive issues on Day II acquiring solid cornerback talent in Chidobe Awuzi and Jourdan Lewis. Awuzi was a very good selection at the end of the second round who can play inside and outside with physical style of play and not afraid to tackle receivers. Lewis brings good ball skills to the position which was desperately needed who is also one of the most physical corners as well though a bit smaller than Awuzi.

The Chargers addressed the interior of the offensive line with excellent guards on each side. Forrest Lamp is a plus starter and Dan Feeney is more than capable himself though not as talented as Lamp. They added a playmaker at receiver with Mike Williams from Clemson and have the makings of a solid offensive line.  Teams that control the line of scrimmage are contenders and they took a step to ensure they can do that this year.

The Patriots hit on their 2 third round picks in Derek Rivers and Antonio Garcia.  Rivers is a top sleeper from Youngstown State but he more than held his own at the Senior Bowl and lit up the combine showing he can get it done as a speed weak side rusher.  Antonio Garcia from Troy is another sleeper with excellent potential as a tackle who can start in this league.

Pittsburgh is one of the most well run organizations in football.  They know who they are and do not play games when it comes to the draft. They don't trade, they just take the best players that fall to them. It happens every year and they hit more times than they miss. TJ Watt as an ideal speed rushing threat, JuJu Smith-Schuster as a good receiving option, Cameron Sutton as a solid cornerback and James Conner as a perfect power back staying home in Pittsburgh.  They stay ahead of the salary cap because they draft well and their depth is ready to deal with injuries so they keep contending for the playoffs every year.

Washington has solidified their defense with a stud pass rushing tackle in Jonathan Allen, a plus outside linebacker threat in Ryan Anderson from Alabama and a perfect physical corner in Fabian Moreau from UCLA. They noticed how the Giants attacked the Cowboys and now might have the tools to execute the same plan this year.

Cleveland killed their momentum from the first round with Deshone Kizer and Larry Ogunjobi on Day II. Kizer hurt himself prior to the draft with his comments about his preparation and overstating his physical abilities. His poor game performances where he lost his starting job certainly do not help his case. Then he goes to a team that has perhaps the worst QB situation in the league.  He was going to need to go a team that had a solid foundation and not really need him to play anytime soon, neither of which is true in Cleveland.  Ogunjobi is one of the top sleepers in the draft but he was a reach in the first pick in the 3rd round. He was a inconsistent player, motor that didn't run all the time and poor technique which is a bad combination.

The New York Giants are having the worst draft of any team through 3 rounds.  They reached for a receiving only tight end who can't block and isn't an explosive receiving threat either in the same class as Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow, Antonio Gates or Jimmy Graham. It looked like someone who was dead set on a tight end regardless and even so they passed on a better prospect David Njoku. They took Dalvin Tomlinson who isn't a bad player but you don't spend a premium pick in the 2nd round for an asset you can get much later.  Run stuffing defensive tackles can be found late in the draft but again they were dead set on replacing Hankins using the same asset they used to acquire him. Their disaster was complete wasting a top 100 selection on an undrafted graded QB in Davis Webb from California.

San Francisco hurt the momentum they built off an A+ opening round taking a talented but wildly inconsistent corner. Then a QB that was so far off the radar made you wonder if you had the name right in CJ Beathard from Iowa.

The Dallas Cowboys select Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan

Jourdan Lewis, Michigan, #26

Game Film Evaluated:

Penn State (2016)

Wisconsin (2016)

Florida State (2016)

Ohio State (2016)

Summary: Good long speed, has some quickness. Sloppy with technique, grabs too much and not good at the LOS getting a press on the receiver. Struggles in transition to turn and run downfield. Poor tackler. He has good catch up speed but burners will go past him. 

Jourdan Lewis has the tools to be an effective corner but he has to clean up a lot to his game. He needs to improve his technique, work hard to improve his transition, reset his feet to turn and run without losing speed. He needs to get better with his hands at the LOS and especially downfield, he’s a grabber and will get a lot of flags thrown his way. The ball skills are there but doesn’t display them consistently, he tries to knock the pass away instead of picking it off. The INT against Wisconsin will always be on his highlight heel but that is not a accurate description of his game, just one play. He projects to be a secondary corner who should be a good match up outside or might make a good living inside if he can refine his technique. He leaves a bit of his talent just waiting to be found. Just outside the top 100, 4th round grade.

The Houston Texans select D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas

D’Onta Foreman, Texas, #33

Game Film Evaluated:

West Virginia (2016)

TCU (2016)

Kansas State (2016)

Summary: Bigger physical inside runner. He has a burst in the open field but it takes him a bit to get to full speed. He can run away from defenders if he gets some space. He runs up the back of his lineman, not someone who is comfortable to bounce the run outside and able to turn the corner effectively. He is a volume runner, needs a lot of carries and eventually will have a longer run but play in and out there is not a lot of quality runs. Average pass protector and he can catch the ball but will drop passes at times. Not someone who can make the difficult catch. He has to be a one cut and decisive runner, he will be taken down for losses if he dances in the backfield too much. 

D’Onta Foreman is a quality inside physical runner. He has a good extra gear to run away from defenders if he gets some space. He is not a dynamic runner who can bounce it outside and shake defenders at the next level. He lacks the vision to run to daylight, too often he runs up the backs of his lineman. He needs to improve his pass protection, keep his head on a swivel to find the blitzer to not get his QB killed. He can be a second string runner who brings good size and speed who can be a solid inside runner. 5th round grade.

The Dallas Cowboys select Chidobe Awuzi, CB, Colorado

Chidobe Awuzie, Colorado, #4

Game Film Evaluated:

USC (2016)

Stanford (2016)

Washington (2016)

Michigan (2016)

Summary: Physical tackler, he will not back down from trying to make a tackle. He plays special teams coverage units. Physical in coverage, gets his hands on the receiver at the line and downfield. Comfortable playing in off man and press man coverage. He looks to make a play on the ball and play the man to knock it away. Held his own athletically vs John Ross at Washington who is a first round prospect. 

Chidobe Awuzie is a plus solid corner who is one of the best man cover corners in the draft who is also a plus tackler. He is not the biggest corner in the class but he will not get out muscled for a ball. He is not a playmaker though in coverage, often the ball went elsewhere in college. He is comfortable lining up and outside as well as inside and doing a good job. He may never be a plus starter but definitely a starter in the NFL and able to get the job done effectively against any type of receiver.  It is rare to find a corner that isn’t afraid nor have trouble bringing down receivers after the catch. Early 2nd round grade.

Houston Texans select Zach Cunningham, LB, Vanderbilt

Zach Cunningham, Vanderbilt, #41

Game Film Evaluated:

Georgia (2016)

Missouri (2016)

South Carolina (2016)

Summary: He can really run and impressive length, ideal frame for the mike position. He can take on blockers and get off blocks effectively. He can convert speed to power and give a good pop on contact with blockers in the hole. He really attacks the action, will be out of position and needs to play a bit more under control. He will take a few false steps and come up with nothing, he runs himself out of position and will miss the tackle as the result. He can really explode into the backfield and absolutely stuff a runner right in his tracks and go no further. He has more than enough speed to keep up with backs and has the height to match up with tight ends as well. 

Zach Cunningham is a rare complete middle linebacker who has the size to handle blockers inside, athleticism to run and chase down plays in both the run and passing game. He is a high potential player but he has some red flags with his average awareness on the field to find the ball and misses too many tackles but he will make a lot of impact plays behind the LOS and not require protection inside from the tackles. 1st round grade but he needs to work hard in the film room and improve his tackling to meet his potential.

2017 NFL Draft: Where does Taco Charlton fit in Dallas?

The Dallas Cowboys selected Taco Charlton from Michigan with their first round pick Thursday night.

The defensive end now joins a cast of characters that finished 26th in pass defense last year but did finish middle of the road in sacks.

Where does Taco Charlton fit in Rod Marinelli's defense?

He played primarily strong side defensive end in a 4-3 front.  Now what does that mean?

The strong side of the formation is whichever side the tight end is lined up on, the stronger side of the offensive formation.  The 4-3 front means four lineman and three linebackers.

So this means Charlton should slide into the same position in Dallas but what happens to the current Cowboys?

2016 breakout player David Irving started the strong side defensive end position in the playoff game against Green Bay.  Irving became an impact player on the defensive line down the stretch against the run and the pass.

Are you willing to move an impact and breakout player from a position he was most effective in?

I didn't think so, what to do with Charlton?

Perhaps he can play on the opposite side as a weak side defensive end.

Taco measured in at the combine at 6'5" and 277 pounds running 4.92 second forty yard dash.  He is significantly less explosive an athlete than the other 2 pass rushers selected in the first round such as Myles Garrett, Derek Barnett and Charles Harris.

Bottom line, Charlton is not talented enough to be a weak side rusher in the NFL.  What does the film say?

I evaluated four games of Taco Charlton during his 2016 report with his performances against Ohio State and Wisconsin pulled for analysis here.

Charlton had his best performance of the year against Ohio State without question and he went up against legit competition at Wisconsin in Ryan Ramczyk who was the Saint's first round selection.

Here is the premier match up with Charlton, wears #33, is lined up over Ramczyk, wears #65.  Without a doubt, his favorite move is the spin move that Dwight Freeney made famous with the Colts.  Impressive play.

Those combine numbers suggest he is not an explosive quick edge rusher who can turn the corner with speed at the next level when he goes against the best pass protectors in the world. The film supports those numbers unfortunately for him.

Ohio State is a pro football factory churning out top prospects year after year on both sides of the ball. Pat Elflein, wears #65, is the top center prospect in the draft and on this play he pulls out to line up against Charlton. The athletic pass rusher does exactly what he should do against a center in space. I like his use of hands to get off the block quickly and finish the play to the QB.

Fans of the combine always flock to the 40 yard dash as the premier event. However it is the first 10 yards that really counts when consider quickness from the snap.  Taco Charlton ran the 40 yard dash in 4.92 seconds which is slow but his 10 yard time was 1.70. But how fast is that?  Lets go to those explosive rushers mentioned earlier and compare.  Garrett was 1.63, Barnett was 1.70 and Harris was 1.65.  This means Charlton has solid, not elite level burst off the snap.  However you can see here that he can shoot the gaps and make plays behind the line.

3rd down is the money down for both an offense and defense.  If you are a pass rusher, you must be able to generate pressure on 3rd downs or your defense is destined to be torn apart.  His strong hands to get under the hands of the tackle and force his way to the pocket with good balance and burst.

He is not an elite quick twitch or someone who can really bend low to the ground to turn the corner with elite speed like Von Miller, Demarcus Ware or Myles Garrett.  He is able to use his hands well and enough athleticism to make it work on the outside.

I argue that Charlton is an adequate weak side rusher but would be best to move to the strong side or inside on passing downs, slide David Irving to tackle and bring in a smaller guy such as Benson Mayowa to the weak side.

I wrote in my report that he reminds me of former North Carolina Tar Heel and Cowboy Greg Ellis who was a solid pass rusher but never an elite guy.  The media reported Taco comparisons to another former Cowboy Tony Tolbert which is a good match as well.

Bottom line, Dallas got a good, not elite player who will help their defense next year without question.

2017 NFL Draft - First Round Morning After

The opening round of the 2017 NFL Draft was billed as one of the most unpredictable drafts in recent memory.  It turned out to be exactly that and more.

The most puzzling move involved the Chicago Bears moving up just one spot to #2 overall to acquire QB Mitchell Trubisky from North Carolina.

Rookie 49ers General Manager John Lynch acquired 2 thirds and a fourth round pick to drop one spot and still get their impact defensive player in Solomon Thomas.  It is important to have as many picks in the top 100 to build your team and congrats to Lynch for adding 2 picks in the top 100 and still get their guy.

Not to be outdone the 49ers moved back into the first round giving up just their 2nd and 4th pick to do it to land another impact defensive player in Reuben Foster from Alabama.  He is an ideal inside backer in a 3-4 that lines up on the weak side to just attack the gaps and get into the backfield.  They were able to land Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster in the opening round and gain 2 top 100 picks.

The Bears move is puzzling as they paid a ton to acquire Mike Glennon in the offseason, 3 years for $45 million dollars and $18 million guaranteed. However the deal is set up where he could be released after one year costing just $4.5 million in dead money.

However if Mitchell Trubisky becomes the QB that earned him a first round grade, no one will care as he leads the rebuild in Chicago.

The worst pick of the opening round belongs to the Cincinnati Bengals at #9 who reached badly to select WR John Ross from Washington.  He can absolutely fly but the rest of his game has a lot to be desired.  He isn't close to ready to contribute on offense as a reliable weapon.

The Houston Texans made a bold swing for the fences trading away their 2018 first round pick and pick #25 to take Clemson QB DeShaun Watson at #12.  I would of taken Nate Peterman from Pittsburgh instead but I like Watson.  He is a proven winner with back to back national championship appearances and although his game needs work, you can't deny when the clock hits zero, he seems to come out on top.

The most underrated move of the night is Washington quietly taking an impact defensive player in Jonathan Allen from Alabama.  He was a no doubt first round grade and fell due to concerns about his shoulder. Washington had a need replacing Chris Baker, remember they passed on USC's Leonard Williams last year, and decided to simply add the best player available in Allen who will instantly improve that pass rush as a rookie.

While public opinion supports the Giants move to take Evan Engram, TE from Ole Miss, I am not a fan of that selection.  This is an example of being too cute.  Engram had a 4th round grade because he can't block nor is he athletic enough a receiver to justify the move.  He is a good receiver but he isn't an explosive athlete like Kellen Winslow or Vernon Davis who can beat corners and safeties in coverage. Bad move Giants.

Someone was going to take a chance on Jabril Peppers and sure enough the Browns pulled the trigger with one of their 3 first round picks.  I am not a fan of Peppers, he doesn't make enough impact plays on defense to feel he will be a starter as a rookie.  He is a legit returner but I see a backup safety in the NFL and that isn't worth a first round selection.  They finished up by selecting Miami TE David Njoku who should have been the Giants selection six spots earlier, their careers will be compared to each other to see if the Giants made the right choice.

Day 2 gets underway with the Packers now on the clock.