A scouts perspective

A scouts perspective

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Dallas must find an elite player in the first round.

I'm not overly impressed with the first round prospects, not many elite players.

Offensively: I want Decastro, he is willing to play center and took snaps with Luck at Stanford's pro-day. I don't see elite with him but he should be a day 1 starter and be a 10-year starter as a more than capable piece.

Defensively: Michael Brockers from LSU is my top defensive lineman prospect, he has the potential to be a young foundation piece for the dline similar to what Tyron Smith has done for the Oline. He's going to be a excellent run defender day 1 and has tools to become a Richard Seymour impact player in a 3-4.
Fletcher Cox does something for me, not nearly as impressive as Brockers, Cox is more aggressive looking to cause havoc which can open up lanes behind him. He's going to have to play under control and maintain his gap assignments.
I have ZERO interest in Dontari Poe, he's the biggest workout warrior I've ever seen who is thought so highly of without producing on the football field against a lesser level of competition. I prefer Alameda Ta'amu from Washington as a nose tackle in the 2nd round, he would instantly upgrade Dallas interior Dline.
As far as the pass rushers, Coples from UNC is the most talented natural pass rusher but he's much more of a 4-3 left defensive end and no indication Dallas will change defensive schemes for one player. Coples motor is questionable and even gave himself a "C+" grade for effort in his senior season at UNC, what a dumb ass to admit that.
I have very little interest in Courtney Upshaw from Alabama, he's got below average burst and closing speed which will already hurt him getting after the QB, then factor in limited pass rush technique, he's only a bull rusher who will struggle to turn the corner against pro tackles. He's going to be a solid 3-4 strongside linebacker and if Dallas' roster was in better shape, he would be a solid pick but I feel Dallas must find another foundation piece.
Moving onto Melvin Ingram from South Carolina, he's the most polished with regard to technique and consistent motor. He's built more like a defensive lineman but is athletic enough to play in space as a stand up LB in a 3-4. I like his quickness off the snap and has good body style with strong lower body. Its obvious I really like Ingram but he has one gigantic red flag, actually the more accurate term would be small red flag. Ingram & Upshaw both have below average arm length and size of their hands, it calls into question both player's ability to consistently generate pressure if NFL tackles have the edge to get their hands on them first. The track record for successful NFL pass rushers ALL have arm length and hand size bigger than these prospects. It is not a deal breaker but the track record and lack of elite physical traits are enough for me to look elsewhere. If you had to make me pick one, obviously I'm going with Ingram as I'd rather have a player who has better technique if he's an elite talent.
The two prospects I'm interested in are Bruce Irvin from West Virginia and Shea McCellin of Boise State. Irvin is a poor man's Von Miller whom the Broncos took last year in the first round out of Texas A&M. Irvin is a undersized athletic pass rusher with a excellent quickness to turn the corner and get after the QB. He has turned some teams off with character concerns and not being invited to the Senior Bowl for unknown reasons failing to showcase his talent in front of NFL coaches in Mobile. However he projects to be an ideal 3-4 outside linebacker pass rusher who will be available in round 2, perhaps even 3 and be utilized as a exclusive 3rd down pass rusher and create havoc. McCellin is one of my most favorite prospects this year, basically he does everything very well and has performed for 3 straight seasons at Boise as consistently the best defender on a defensive line that has 2 other NFL prospects on it. Yet, McCelin gets no love due to his size in the first round at 6-3, 260. He tested average at the combine except for a 4.63 forty yard dash which was amongst the best for linebackers. This kid knows how to play the game, uses quickness and technique to get his opponent off balance and generate pressure. His technique is very good, not quite on Ingram's level but few prospects are as polished as he in any year.

As far as the secondary, the corners that interest me are Morris Claiborne from LSU in the first round, he's not on Patrick Peterson's level but he's excellent and qualifies as an elite prospect. I have removed Kirtzpatrick and Janoris Jenkins from my board due to character red flags, Dallas does not need any more knuckleheads counted on to make a difference on this mentally weak football team. The next corner that intrigues me is Brandon Boykin from Georgia in the 2nd round and then Dwight Bentley from La-Lafayette who would be an excellent nickel corner with a great attitude. The Texas A&M kid Jude has starter ability but goodness he can't stay healthy, if Dallas had a more solid roster I would risk selecting him in the 2nd or 3rd round but this team cannot take that chance.

Wrapping up the discussion is safety, I have pushed Mark Barron from Alabama to the bottom of the first round and out of my top 15 list. He's a safety who is excellent in 2 phases of four necessary to be a elite safety in the NFL (Run Support, Blitz, Center-fielder, Cover half in Cover 2 scheme). While getting a player who can do two of those skills is considered good, Dallas needs to come away with better than that with this year's first round pick. Barron was not tested consistently in coverage coming out of the SEC and is much more a in the box safety. A good general rule with safeties is you can find a solid one in the later rounds and should reserve the first round for someone who can do 3 of the 4 phases outlined earlier. The prospect I would target is George Illoka from Boise State who should come off the board in late 2nd to early 3rd round, a better cover safety than Barron but will struggle in man coverage but capable at defending the run.

Friday, March 16, 2012

Simple question, pay more money for two average players or one pro-bowl caliber player? Which did the Cowboys do?

The cowboys offensive lineman signings Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau total a yearly salary of $6.55 million.  Free agent center Scott Wells, pro-bowl center of the Packers signed yesterday with the Rams 4-years for $24 million, $13 million guaranteed. The cowboys paid $6 million more in bonus' and $550k more in yearly salary for two average guards than one pro-bowl caliber center. I don't know the yearly cap figures for Livings & Bernadeau, just simple math of all their contracts agreed upon in free agency.

I would rather be very strong at center, draft the top guard in Decastro and hope Kosier or the kids show something in training camp for the other guard spot.  The cowboys can't fix all their holes but that doesn't mean you reach for quantity instead of quality. 

The cowboys got into salary cap trouble overpaying average players in free agency (Roy Williams and Igor Olshansky) and resigning players who did not deserve top dollar extensions (Marion Barber III, Miles Austin, Marcus Spears, Anthony Spencer, Terrence Newman, Gerald Sensabaugh and Doug Free although at time of his deal thought he did deserve it). #JerryJonestheGMstillsucks

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Free Agent Targets: Pass Rushers

Need 3-4 pass rushers
1. Mario Williams - He has less than a season of experience as a 3-4 OLB but he's a top pass rusher. He will also command franchise player money coming off an injury projecting to a position he has limited snaps in.
2. John Abraham - Aging player but couldn't tell from his on field production, 9.5 sacks a season ago and projects as a situational pass rusher to keep fresh. Its going to take a 2-year deal commanding 3-4 million a season, pass rushers are always valued in the NFL.
3. Mark Anderson - Former Chicago Bear and came on strong for the Patriots last year as a pass rusher notching 10 sacks. He would be more affordable than John Abraham as a situational pass rusher in either a 4-3 or 3-4 front.

Dallas franchised Anthony Spencer but that should not stop any effort to upgrade their ability to rush the passer within financial reason. That rules out Mario but do not ever count out Jerry Jones on making a play on a star player at a premier position.

The smart plan is reach out to Mark Anderson and find out his asking price, if its within 2 million a year over a couple of seasons, I bring Anderson in here. I also select a pass rusher in the draft to bring out competition and honestly build up the market for a trade of Anthony Spencer prior to training camp.