2017 NFL Season Preview

The 2017 season begins Thursday with the champion New England Patriots hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.

No more worthless preseason games, the fantasy drafts are complete and now we get to see what this season will bring.

Every season there is high turnover on the playoff teams and preseason favorites fail to meet expectations for a variety of reasons.

So with that said, let's outline what we can expect in 2017.  I will revisit this in February to see how terrible my predictions were.

Let us begin with who are the most improved teams heading into 2017 whether by coaching change, free agency signings and selections in the draft.

The Cincinnati Bengals have added a lot of weapons offensively to go with an improved defense that shapes well for them this season.  They will have to survive the first few weeks due to suspensions and tough 4 game stretch.  I like the backfield of Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard, Jeremy Hill will not be the season long feature back.  Andy Dalton is not an elite QB but he is solid and should benefit by throwing the ball less as they run with success.  The wildcard is their offensive line which is not a strength.  If defenses shut the run down early and forces Dalton to throw more then their season could take a turn.  I expect the Bengals get off to a 1-3 start but they get on a run becoming one of the hottest teams heading into the playoffs.

The Houston Texans will be better for 2 simple reasons.  No more Brock Osweiler and healthy return of JJ Watt.  Tom Savage won the starting job away from rookie DeShaun Watson and he is a steady QB who will throw the ball downfield and past first down markers on 3rd down, neither of which Osweiler did on a regular basis.  They have a deep backfield with Lamar Miller and I think D'onta Foreman will end up getting the second most carries by season's end ahead of Alfred Blue. The only concern is the offensive tackle situation, the ongoing contract dispute with left tackle Duane Brown and loss of right tackle Derek Newton.  An offense can slow down to a crawl even with a real good QB if the offensive line struggles, just watch Seattle.

Los Angeles Chargers are not a deep team but they have good cornerstone pieces.  They remind me of the Raiders from a season ago that can surprise people led by their franchise pass rusher in Joey Bosa and talented offense.  They would be wise to utilize a 2 TE offense to get Hunter Henry on the field with Antonio Gates.  They have a tough schedule which will keep them from winning the division but they survive to take a wildcard spot.

The NFL is a copycat league and the Arizona Cardinals are going to force a change in how teams play defense to slow down the pass happy offenses.  They are deep and good on the defensive line and extremely versatile at linebacker. Watch out for Haason Reddick who can run like a safety, rush like an end and hit in space like a linebacker.  Deone Buchanan got the job to start the season but that won't last long.  The blueprint of strong rushing attack and a dominating defense often leads to the playoffs.

Each season a young team breaks out to become a contender, two years ago it was the Carolina Panthers, last year it was the Raiders and this year I think it will be the Tennessee Titans.  They remind me of the Dallas Cowboys a year ago, young solid QB with a deep backfield, elite offensive line and a defense that finds a way to keep the opponent out of the end zone despite not getting turnovers.  Their schedule is not overly intimidating and young QBs that are playoff contenders break through by their 4th season in the league.  Marcus Mariota is entering his 3rd season and I think this team is poised to make a serious run.

While every team makes improvements, some get too much hype that I do not see translating into wins on the field.  They might help you dominate your fantasy league but thats the only championships their stats will earn this season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are loaded at the skill positions and teams featured on Hard Knocks always energize fanbases but it is a false hope in my opinion.  You should not ever trust a team that is lead by a dumb football player at the most important position.  Jameis Winston is a dumb player, he is reckless with the ball and is not aware on the field. He is the perfect fantasy and video game QB but he is not someone you can win a championship with at this point.

The Minnesota Vikings spent a lot of money in free agency and the draft to fix their offense but failed to improve the most important position.  Sam Bradford is terrible and although their rushing attack should be better with Davin Cook and an improved offensive line but it isn't enough.

Here are my picks for the divisional champions.

AFC East - New England.  They still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichek.

AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals.  Every NFL season there is high turnover amongst the playoff teams and the Bengals take the division from the Steelers.

AFC South - Tennessee Titans. Surprise team of the league who beat the Texans for a division in a physical close race all season.

AFC West - Oakland Raiders.  They take a step back this season as Lynch fails to generate a consistent rushing attack causing Carr to throw the ball way more than he should. Still good enough to win the division.

NFC East - New York Giants. That defense is still just as good and the Cowboys regress allowing the Giants a window. Their offensive line and rushing attack is still not good enough but those passing weapons and defense will carry them all season.

NFC North - Green Bay Packers. They still have Aaron Rodgers and the Pack take the division if the Lions are the only other competition.

NFC South - Carolina Panthers. This has more to do with the Falcons than it does the Panthers. Atlanta's passing attack regresses and the defense which allowed more than 25 points per game last year fails to improve. Carolina's rushing attack with a healthy Cam Newton and rookie of the year Christian McCaffery becomes a sight to see.

NFC West - Arizona Cardinals. The Cards win an ugly style of football led by physical defense and a power rushing attack.  The Seahawk's slide conti
nues as their offensive line fails to protect Wilson or generate any consistent rushing attack.

Wildcards
NFC - Dallas Cowboys.  Dak Prescott has another strong year but throws the ball more in his second season due to Zeke's suspension which causes an increase in turnovers. However the defense becomes the achilles heel and a tough schedule forces another early round exit.
NFC - Washington Redskins. Kirk Cousins puts together an entire season of quality play and they win the wildcard in week 17.

AFC - Houston Texans. Both the Titans and Texans are good teams but only one can win the division.
AFC - LA Chargers. There is turnover every year in the playoffs and I see the Chargers as the 2017 version of the Chiefs.

Super Bowl matchup:

Tennessee Titans vs Arizona Cardinals

The Titans win the championship behind a young QB, a tremendous offensive line and power rushing attack with an opportunistic defense.

Enjoy the season everyone.  I look forward to revisiting this in February.

Texas loses against Maryland - Morning After

The Tom Herman era begins the way Charlie Strong's ended.  A disappointing loss in front of the home fans.

Now that we have had a chance to let the initial frustration fade away, is there anything positive to take away from the season opener?

There isn't much to feel good about offensively.  Coaching and execution were poor to say the least.

This play call reminded me of the infamous Gregg Davis, Mack Brown's offensive coordinator while at Texas.  It is 4th and 5 and the primary read is only one yard downfield.  The probability of success is extremely low.

However I am willing to say that Texas might have a dynamic playmaker in Reggie Hemphill-Mapps. Texas has been beyond dreadful in the special teams return game but Reggie made a highlight reel play.  The redshirt freshman had to break a tackle and walk the tight rope along the sideline to take it the distance to keep Texas hopes alive.  Offensively he added 7 receptions and Herman needs to make sure he is on the field as much as possible to add a big play element to an offense that appears to be lacking one.

The underwhelming performance on offense starts with the line.  Coach Herman said just a week ago 4 of the starters on the line compared to the national championship squad at Ohio State.  But that is not who showed up yesterday.  Preseason All-American Connor Williams gave up several pressures and multiple holding penalties.  Veteran guard Patrick Vahe #77 failed to pick up stunts effectively giving up pressure even when Maryland brought only 3 defenders on the rush.

RG Jake McMillon and RT Tristian Nickelson weren't on the same page allowing a free blitzer to sack Buechele who was running for his most of the day.

Buechele was slow on his decision making, he held the ball too long when he did have time and did not show the accuracy that made Herman say "He's the most accurate guy I've coached."  Shane failed to properly read the defense and either did not or could not change the play.  Multiple times Texas ran right into blitzes that were telegraphed in pre snap or adjust the pass play to beat the defense.

True freshman Sam Ehlinger needs to be given an opportunity if Shane continues to struggle in his decision making and accuracy.

Defensively Texas will be okay.  They are built to attack passing offenses which are the norm in the Big 12.  The problem is they MUST be able to stop the run on early downs.  This will allow Texas to unleash their multiple explosive blitzers from different areas on the field.  Coordinator Todd Orlando flashed this package of 1 DL, 4 LBs and 6 DBs on 3rd downs early in the game before the score forced them to keep lineman on the field to try and stop the run.  It didn't work.

Malik Jefferson flashed early in the game but missed tackles and issues getting off blocks showed up again which has plagued him at Texas. Highly touted transfer Gary Johnson should see the field more often in place of Jefferson if that continues.

Jefferson #46 is in the middle of the defense and is responsible for the gap left of the center and fails to bring down the back in the hole leading to a big gain.

Sophomore Brandon Jones #19 struggled in secondary again which drew comparisons to his first collegiate start against Oklahoma State when he looked lost.  He allowed runners to get to the perimeter of the defense instead of forcing them back inside to his teammates.

This one lead to a score for Maryland.

On another occasion Jones appeared to jump an intermediate route in deep coverage and allow a receiver to get over the top for another score.  Jones is the most talented safety on the roster but he has a ways to go to become the player he's capable of.

The player of the game was Holton Hill with his 2 TDs and multiple strong tackles to get the defense off the field on 3rd down. He lost his confidence under Strong and Co. but is off to a good starter this year.  All of the corners need to improve their ability to locate the ball and make a play on it when in position.

Different coaching staff, same problems with special teams.  They started against Oklahoma State in 2016 and have continued now under Herman.  The left guard protector allows instant penetration at the snap leading to the block.

Next up, #4 ranked USC.