A scouts perspective

A scouts perspective

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Decoding the Texans 2014 - Week 4



Data from Week _4_ vs _Buffalo Bills______:

Run-Pass
18-45
Avg Starting Field Position
Own 30
1st Down Run-Pass
14-16
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go
9.0
2nd Down Run-Pass
4-15
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go
6.9 yards
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass
0-14
3rd Down Conversions
5/14

Drive Starters – The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here –

Wk 4 - _Buffalo Bills : _13  Drives - _5_ Run/_8_ Pass
Wk 3 - _NY Giants_   : _13  Drives - _4_ Run/_9_ Pass
Wk 2 - _Oakland_      : _9_  Drives - _7_ Run/_2_ Pass
Wk 1 - _Washington_: _11_ Drives - _6_ Run/_5_ Pass

2014 Total:  46  Drives - _22_ Run/_24_ Pass _48  % Run

* This statistic doesn’t count any 1-play kneel down drives.

The table doesn’t come close to describe how bad the Texans run offense was.  This offense is not capable of consistently having to overcome 2nd and 9 against any defense, they must be able to run the ball with some success to make this offense work. The Texans ran the ball 14 times, excluding shotgun, and had a grand total of 6 plays they gained at least a yard.  The most they earned on the ground was an 8 yard gain out of the shotgun in the 2nd half. That is not going to cut it but thankfully they had EJ Manuel on the schedule who played so poorly he lost his starting job to Kyle Orton.

Why couldn’t the Texans run the ball, was it because Foster wasn’t 100%, the Bills stacked the line to force the ball in the air?

The answer is poor execution by the offensive line, good performance by the Bills front four which should not be surprising considering the resources poured into that line.











The Texans are in 21 (2 backs, 1 TE) and the Bills are in their base 3-4 look.











This play is instantly doomed when the tight end obviously ran the wrong assignment on the zone stretch play to the left, result is a 4-yard loss.











Houston breaks the huddle this time in their 12 personnel (1 back, 2 TEs) with the Bills again in their base look.  No run blitz or 8 men in the box to stuff the run.











The LG Ben Jones fails to get to the 2nd level and the LB easily side steps the block and stuffs the run.











Here we see the Texans again in the 12, Buffalo is playing man coverage with a single high safety look pre-snap.











Ben Jones and LT Duane Brown each drop their heads trying to get the 2nd level and this gives the defender the edge to defeat the 1/1 block. The offensive line failed to execute their blocks, simple as that.

Play Action Snaps – 15

Play-action had been the Texan’s calling card under Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub, both of whom are now gone.  But the fact remains that this offense goes as far as their running game takes them, they have not been good enough to beat teams solely through the air.  Here we will track those snaps.

Wk _4_ - _Buffalo Bills___     : 15/113 yards_ _7.5 avg yards/play action pass
Wk _3_ - _NY Giants___       : _5/38   yards_ _7.6 avg yards/play action pass
Wk _2_ - _Oakland___          : _3/18   yards_ _6.0 avg yards/play action pass
Wk _1_ - _Washington___     : _6/119 yards_ _19.8 avg yards/play action pass

2014 Season Total: _29/288 yards_ _9.9 avg yards/play action pass

Shotgun Snaps – 32

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Texans aren’t getting too lazy in using it. The NFL run/pass split across the league is 15%/85% and most teams rarely run out of the shotgun with any time of consistent success. Bill O’Brien is showing a tendency to be in shotgun a lot and run the ball out of it, a lot.  The Texans consistently split the running back out wide when in shotgun I assume wanting to exploit a matchup on the perimeter. They had not thrown to the back once through the first 3 games and it leaves Fitzpatrick vulnerable to pressure. The Giants rarely blitzed nor did they have to playing with a lead but it is something to keep an eye on going forward.

Wk _4_ - _Buffalo Bills___   : _32/63_ _50.8_%
Wk _3_ - _NY Giants___       : _41/62_ _66.1_%
Wk _2_ - _Oakland___          : _40/69_ _58.0_%
Wk _1_ - _Washington___     : _31/62_ _50.0_%

2014 Season Total: _144/256_ _56.2_%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Package
Plays Run
Yards
Avg/Play
Run
Pass
10
0
0
0.0
0
0
11
3
3
1.0
3
0
12
19
94
4.9
5
14
13
1
0
0.0
0
1
20
0
0
0.0
0
0
21
2
-2
-1.0
2
0
22
6
21
3.5
4
2
23
0
0
0.0
0
0
S00
0
0
0.0
0
0
S01
0
0
0.0
0
0
S10
0
0
0.0
0
0
S11
28
158
5.6
4
24
S12
4
25
6.2
0
4
S21
0
0
0.0
0
0
Totals
63
299
4.7
18
45

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package
Plays
Yards
Avg/Play
Run
Pass
FD/TD
10
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
11
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
12
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
13
1
0
0.0
0
1
0
20
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
21
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
22
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
23
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
S00
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
S01
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
S10
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
S11
13
51
3.9
0
13
5
S12
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
S21
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
Totals
14
51
3.6
0
14
5


Splash Plays

Let’s take a look at the “Splash Plays” from Week _4_ at the _Buffalo Bills_:

Splash Plays are key impact plays from the defense. Usually, they are obvious, but there are some that blur the line. I have listed time and play of each one for those who want to double check my work.

For more, read a detailed explanation of this study here: What is a splash play?

Week _4_ at _Buffalo Bills_______

Q-Time
D/D/Yd
Player
Play

2/4/H44
21
TFL

3/11/H13
24
PBU

2/10/O13
24
TFL

1/10/O13
25
PBU

3/5/O37
26
TFL

2/5/O37
26
PBU

1/10/O47
26
TFL

3/4/H47
26
PBU

2/5/H48
36
FF

2/7/O31
54
QB RUSH

2/8/O3
56
PBU

3/8/O3
59
QB RUSH

3/13/O17
96
PBU

3/5/H23
96
QB RUSH

3/12/O11
99
QB RUSH

1/10/O33
99
TFL

1/10/O20
99
QB RUSH

2/5/H7
99
TFL

3/10/H48
99
QB RUSH

3/8/O22
99
QB RUSH

1/10/O34
99
QB RUSH

1/10/O20
99
QB RUSH

3/2/H11
99
INT FOR TD

2/8/O22
99/93
QB SACK

1/10/H41
99
QB RUSH

1/10/H41
26
INT

2/6/O25
99
QB RUSH

2/6/O25
93
TFNG

Here are the season totals for _2014___:

Player
Name
Splashes
99
JJ Watt
27.5
36
D.J. Swearinger
7.0
58
Brooks Reed
6.0
25
Kareem Jackson
6.0
26
Darryl Morris
6.0
24
Johnathan Joseph
5.0
21
Kendrick Lewis
4.0
93
Jared Crick
3.5
59
Whitney Mercilus
3.0
54
Mike Mohamed
3.0
57
Justin Tuggle
2.0
95
Jerrell Powe
2.0
56
Brian Cushing
2.0
96
Tim Jamison
1.5
97
Jeoffrey Pagan
1.0
38
Danieal Manning
1.0
34
A.J. Bouye
1.0
29
Andre Hall
1.0
90
Jadeveon Clowney
0.5

Blitzing Report

Romeo Crennel has been around the NFL for over 30 years with the past 12 spent as either a head coach or a defensive coordinator.  He is known for being an aggressive coordinator who isn’t afraid to blitz and blitz often.  He is not going to stand back and play coverage on most 3rd downs, he will bring the heat and force the issue on the QB.

Opposing Big Plays
Q-Time
D/D/Yd
Play
Rushers

1/10/O20
80 yd Pass
4

3/7/O31
15 yd Pass
4

1/10/O47
22 yd Run
4

Pass Rushers Against _Buffalo Bills_______ - _46_ pass rush/blitz situations:

Pass Rushers
1st D
2nd D
3rd D
4th D
Total
3 Rush
0
0
0
0
0
4 Rush
10
12
5
0
27
5 Rush
4
3
6
0
13
6 Rush
2
0
4
0
6
7 Rush
0
0
0
0
0

The Texans blitzed less against the Bills than they had done against the Giants, blitzing 41.3% down from the 46.4% in pass rush situations.  It helped that JJ Watt was destroying the Bills line and EJ Manuel missed badly throughout the game.  Speaking of Watt and the blitz, it should come as no surprise to the two coming together for the highlight reel play of the game.











The Texans crowd the line showing blitz all the way with man coverage across the field.  A veteran QB would recognize this and attempt to find his big receiver to make a play in the endzone.  Even Manuel should of recognized the slot corner blitz off the left side and known he would have a easy reception to the slot receiver.











Instead he throws the pass laterally to his back he hopes will be wide open in the flat to turn it upfield for a score.  However the ultra athletic Watt makes the play and game changed from that point on in the Texans favor.

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers
1st D
2nd D
3rd D
4th D
Total
3 Rush
0
1
0
0
1
4 Rush
45
36
16
0
97
5 Rush
10
12
11
0
33
6 Rush
4
3
12
1
20
7 Rush
3
1
0
0
4

The game by game pressure numbers:

Wk 4 - _Buffalo Bills : _19 /_46_ - _41.3_%

Wk 3 - _NY Giants__ : _13 /_28_ - _46.4_%

Wk 2 - _Oakland__    : _16 /_45_ - _35.6_%

Wk 1 - _Washington_ : _9_ /_36_ - _25.0_%

Totals: _57_/_155_ - _36.8_%