Did Cowboys offense become too predictable against Green Bay?

Whenever your team losses in the playoffs, the same themes will resonate among sports radio and fans to explain why they lost.

The referees screwed us with bad calls.

Our team was out coached by the other side.

The play calling was poor.

We were too predictable on offense.

These will be tossed around without any real substance, just as a means to explain and blame for the pain they feel when your teams season comes to an end.

However no one will ever appoint Jason Garrett as one of the premier head coaches in football and weaknesses such as those can be exploited in the playoffs.

I am not suggesting the Packers have a premier head coach, however I do feel Dallas got predictable on offense and it was exploited.

The Dallas passing game is a underneath passing attack combined with a power rushing game with the rare deep shot thrown in.  This was not the result of Dak Prescott but had been in place the previous two seasons under Tony Romo.

One of the passing plays often used is the wide receiver screen mostly targeting Cole Beasley.  This fits him perfectly to take advantage of his quickness and make defenders miss in space.

Unfortunately Green Bay defender Micah Hyde (number 33) managed to intercept a pass from Prescott intended for Beasley on a screen pass to stop a potential scoring drive for the Cowboys.

Did Hyde just happen to guess right, how did he know that pass was coming?

The answer is Micah Hyde did know that pass was coming but this was just the final step in a long process that began weeks earlier.

Dallas and Green Bay met earlier in the season on October 16th which Dallas won 30-16.  The Cowboys followed their blue print of power rushing attack followed by a underneath passing attack.

Prescott was 18 for 27 tossing three touchdowns and his first career interception.  Two of his completions came on this same wide receiver screen pass to Beasley.

Notice the formation, one wide receiver is on the line of scrimmage and Beasley is off the line but within a yard of his teammate.  This is a relatively unique alignment but is designed to give Beasley a blocker so he can catch the pass and run.

Dallas ran eight plays out of this alignment against the Packers in October so two out of eight times is not a trend to indicate to the defense that a certain play is coming.

However an additional two plays were executed as a run play but the wide receivers acted as if they were running the screen pass.  Prescott likely changed the play at the line based on the defense or it was deliberate by offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to keep the defense guessing.  Every NFL offense does this as well.

But keep digging and you will find the trend.  

Of the eight plays run out of this alignment, Dallas alternated 100% of the time from the receivers running the screen pass to a different route.

This means if Dallas lines up in this alignment and they don't run the screen pass, you have a high degree of certainty that screen pass is coming the next time.

But this is just one game out of 16, did Dallas continue this trend later in the season?

In reviewing the film of Dallas' final three opponents excluding the worthless game at Philadelphia in week 17, it turns out this trend continued to hold water.

The Cowboys were in this alignment a total of nine times during the Detroit, Tampa Bay and New York Giants games to end the season.  Again, 100% of the time Dallas alternated from the receivers running the screen pass to a different route.

During the offseason many coaching staffs undergo changes from the head coach to the coordinators and position coaches.  However an underrated member of the staff are the quality control coaches, these people are responsible for charting games, identifying trends to present to the coordinators and head coach to help prepare a game plan.

Green Bay's defense is an aggressive attack that looks to press the issue and is willing to accept the risk on occasion to hopefully cause a negative play or a turnover.

This trend was certainly identified by the Packers coaching staff but it is on the player to execute the game plan on the field.

So what happened in the game?

The alignment first appears at the 12:19 mark of the Q1, it is 2nd down and 16 from the Packers 46 yard line.

Hyde (33) is playing off the line of scrimmage and Jason Witten is able to get the block and Beasley turns 2nd and 16 into 3rd down and 2.  I imagine the Packers were not willing to take the risk at that moment considering the long distance Dallas had to go for a first down and it was just three minutes into the game.

7:48 mark of the Q1, it is 2nd and 1 at the Dallas 43 yard line.  Dez Bryant is now off the line with Terrence Williams in front serving as the blocker.  However Green Bay puts a corner right on the line and Dallas runs it instead either by design or checked out of it by Prescott.  The corner attempted to challenge the screen until he recognized it was a run play instead.

Regardless this is a change in character, Dallas had ALWAYS alternated between screen pass to a different route in this alignment.  But not this time...

Is it possible Dallas recognized their own tendency and used the bye week effectively to change out of this?

5:19 still in Q1, it is 2nd and 20 at the Dallas 48 yard line.  This time, Beasley runs a inside 5 yard route and Prescott instead goes for Butler to the post.

Perhaps the Dallas coaching staff deserves some credit for recognizing a trend and changing it to give their team the best chance to win a playoff game.

8:48 in Q3, it is 3rd down and 4 from the Packers 37 yard line.  This is a points play and Dallas desperately needs points down by 15.  Dallas had never run the screen pass in a 3rd down situation in their prior 3 games nor in the October matchup in Green Bay.

Beasley runs a fairly casual stop route just past the marker but Prescott takes it himself for a first down.

7:19 in Q3, it is 2nd down and 1 at the Packers 19 yard line.  The Cowboys offense is showing signs of life and Green Bay needs to make a play to protect their two possession lead.  This is the opportunity for the defense to take a risk.  The likelihood is high Dallas scores if they just sit back and defend.  They have ultimate confidence in their offense and can afford to take a chance playing with a lead.

Notice the offensive line and Elliott act like it is a running play so this is likely Dak's decision whether to throw it or hand it off.

You can argue Dak should have just handed it off but he likely decided to throw it when the safety came into the box.  You can argue Dak made a poor throw when he realized at the last micro second what was about to happen.  You can argue that Dez should of managed to get that block to prevent the  pick.

I argue this was set in motion but actions that took place by the defensive coordinator, secondary coaches utilizing the data provided by the quality control coaches, players film room study and finally execution when it counted the most.

Green Bay ended up turning the ball over later on Jeff Health's incredible interception to eliminate a potential dagger from Rodgers and Co.

We will never know what would of happened had Dallas not turned the ball over but I do know there is a difference trailing by two scores instead of one in the 4th quarter of a playoff game.