A scouts perspective

A scouts perspective

Sunday, October 2, 2011

4 games down, what do we know?

Lets start off with the record, 2 wins and 2 losses.  Just what we all expected.

Be honest, when the cowboys season started everyone had the jets game as a loss, then a win against the 49ers.  Next up were two teams Romo's cowboys have struggled against so you would take a split on the Redskins & Lions.  You end up with a 2-2 record.  Now I will look at how Dallas played in those games but for the moment we are just looking at the record.

Next question, where the strengths and weaknesses of this team prior to the start of the regular season?  We thought the offense would be strong in the passing game, have a solid pass rush and a pro-bowl punter.  Onto the perceived weaknesses; 1) the running game was a huge question mark with Felix Jones getting the starting job away from Marion Barber and Tashard Choice & DeMarco Murray failing to push Jones for carries. 2)  The Dallas offensive line youth movement, could two rookies Tyron Smith & Bill Nagy along with first time starter Phil Costa at center re-energizethe team up front?  3) The kicking situation, being the only team in the NFL keeping two active kickers in Dan Bailey & David Buehler after battling with 3 others in camp? 4)  The entire dallas defense ability to defend the run or the pass, could Rob Ryan fix the worst defense in Cowboys history adding only Abram Elam & Kenyon Coleman?

1) Running game through 4 games

Total Rushing Yards:    347 yards on 101 carries.  Average of 3.4 yards.

Felix Jones    241 yards on 56 carries with a 4.3 yards per carry.  1 touchdown

Here are some stats to wrap your head around the Cowboys lack of running success.

Felix Jones has not run for a single first down in the 1st quarter of any game this season also averaging only 1.9 yards a carry.  Jones runs for an average of 3.3 yards per carry when Dallas is leading the game.  The cowboys leading rusher has rushed for only 33 yards on 11 carries inside the opponents red zone.  Finally, below are the success rate for the running game in short yardage situations (% on 3rd or 4th down with 2 or fewer yards for 1st down or TD & 1st, 2nd goal from opponent 2-yard line or closer)

Running Left: 33%
Running Center: 33%
Running Right: 50%

Status: Under performing

2) Offensive Line Youth Movement

Ranked 11th in NFL in sacks (7) and QB hits allowed (20)

Doug Free bounced back from consecutive below average performances versus the 49ers and Redskins. Bill Nagy has performed pretty well, better in pass protection than getting a push in the running game. Phil Costa improved not having any errors on the shotgun snaps after committing three against the Skins, he's been solid but not shown any great strength to open up running lanes up the middle. Tyron Smith has exceeded expectations for the 9th overall pick not allowing a sack until getting bull rushed on the 2nd to last play against the Lions. His athleticism, strength and toughness have impressed coaches and players holding down the right tackle job requiring little to no help thus far.

Status: Average with room for improvement

3) The kicking situation

Dan Bailey leads the NFL in most field goals made with 12 missing only a 21 yarder vs the 49ers. He nailed a clutch 48 yard field goal to send that game into overtime before eventually winning it. He also leads the league in most field goals made going a perfect 5 for 5 in the 40-49 yard range.

Kickoff Stats:

Buehler10 kickoffs with 5 touchbacks. Given up 24.0 average on kickoff returns.

Bailey 13 kickoffs with 5 touchbacks. Is 8th in the NFL in fewest yards allowed on returns with 22.0

Status: Exceeding expectations

4)  The entire Dallas defense

Before we get to the stats that tell the story, even casual observers can see a difference in this defense. Most improved player easily is 2nd year linebacker from Penn State Sean Lee, a high football IQ and athletic middle linebacker who's made plays stuffing the run at the line and in coverage knocking down a team high 6 passes and hauling in two interceptions. Oh yea, he's also showcasing that natural playmaking ability with two fumble recoveries including the game sealing recovery against the Redskins in week 3.

Rob Ryan's unit has given up 101 points this season averaging 25.2 points per game which ranks 23rd. However if you remove both of Romo's interceptions returned for touchdowns against the Lions, that ranking improves to 12th.

A stats that are clear as day is the Dallas Cowboys defense ranks 3rd in the NFL in yards given up (291.8 per gm) behind the Bengals & Steelers. Also, they rank 1st in the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed (247) and of course yards per game (61.8).  Finally, they are tied at 3rd in the league with the Saints in sacks with 13.

Status: Far exceeding expectations