A scouts perspective

A scouts perspective

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Take College Football To The Next Level

You love college football, it perhaps might be your favorite level of football to watch.
Fans across the country screamed for a playoff for decades and finally got a limited version in 2014.

The next obvious step is to increase the playoff field to eight teams from the current four.However there is more that can be done to improve the game we love.

First we must identify what issues are impacting the quality of the sport.

1. Conference Alignment

2. Uniform Governing Body

3. Scheduling Inconsistencies

4. Unknown Criteria to Rankings

There are currently five major conferences with two in jeopardy of collapsing. Both the Big 12 and Pac 12 are not stable with the Big 12 the more likely of the two to fall apart thanks to Texas' non uniform revenue sharing and the controversial Longhorn Network.

Assuming the Big 12 is the likely conference to collapse that leaves four remaining.  It has widely speculated that these four conferences will expand to 16 teams each creating the super conferences.

What happens to the teams from the Big 12?

The ACC, Big 10 and SEC all have 14 teams currently with the PAC 12 pulling in shockingly 12.  This means potentially the 10 teams in the Big 12 could be absorbed into the other conferences.  Unfortunately not all teams in the Big 12 deserve to be promoted into these super conferences and there are other more logical fits who do deserve that opportunity.In addition, there are teams currently in one of the super conferences that geographically need to be realigned or moved to another conference all together.

Lets have some fun and visualize what four super conferences made of 16 teams looks like.  The priority is to get the best 64 teams in these super conferences and resume many of the classic rivalries college football fans love.

ACC
 Atlantic Division Boston College Vanderbilt Florida State Louisville NC State North Carolina Syracuse Wake Forest 

Coastal Division Duke Georgia Tech Miami (FL) Notre Dame (The Irish play in the ACC for other sports) Pittsburgh Virginia Virginia Tech West Virginia 

Big 10 

East Division Indiana Maryland Michigan Michigan State Penn State Purdue Ohio State Rutgers 

West Division Illinois Iowa Kansas Minnesota Nebraska Northwestern Missouri Wisconsin 

Pac 16 North Division Cal Colorado Oregon Oregon State Stanford Washington BYU Utah 

South DivisionArizona Arizona State Baylor Houston Texas Tech TCU UCLA USC 

SEC 

East Division Alabama Auburn Florida Georgia Kentucky South Carolina Tennessee Clemson (Moved to resume Clemson/South Carolina rivalry) 

West Division Arkansas LSU Mississippi State Oklahoma Oklahoma State Ole Miss TexasTexas A&M 

Yes many teams change divisions and even conferences with some leaving the major conferences all together. There could be legal issues making that unlikely but that is for another day.

Now that all the conferences are identical in their size and relative geography, it is imperative that these conferences agree to a uniform governing body to oversee the operation of all things football. This is not a replacement to the NCAA but currently the playoff committee oversees and decides how to rank teams and crown the league's champion without input from the NCAA. In addition, the conferences are free to act independent of each other and decide how to determine the conference champion.

The super conferences will need to agree to adopt a federation which will act as a uniform governing body to ensure all major conferences are aligned and uniform.  This governing body also presents a single opponent in the future when student athletes organize in their attempt to receive just compensation for their work as athletes representing universities across the country.  This same body can also implement requirements for scheduling and remove the ridiculous current process of opponents selected years in advance and the multiple low level competition games that occur during the season.

This brings us to scheduling.  Teams are wildly inconsistent in who they play in terms of strength of schedule on a year to year basis and while it does generally benefit teams to play a strong strength of schedule, it also creates massive inconsistencies from team to team which can hurt their ability to compete for championships.  To address this, every team in the super conferences will have a uniform number schedule.  All teams will play 7 divisional games of every opponent within the division.  Everyone will have 4 non divisional games from another division within the federation.  Finally all federation teams will schedule a home non federation game per season.

Similar to the NFL, the non divisional games within the federation are automatically determined.  Every division is matched with another division within the federation rotating around every six years. The teams that finish the prior season in the top half of the division will play the other division's top half teams and so forth.  The best teams will play the more difficult non divisional schedule to give lesser teams a better chance to compete.  For example, the SEC west division could be matched next season to play the ACC Atlantic division but they would not see them again until 2023.  Each team is guaranteed two of the non divisional, the non federation and at least 3 divisional games will be played at home.  The teams will have to alternate between three and four divisional home games per season.The non federation game remains in this format as all coaches want to pad their stats with the most wins possible by any means possible.  The schools want to host the games for ticket sales and non federation teams want to play to help recruit prospects get a chance to face off against the big teams that may have overlooked them and not to mention the huge payouts they receive to assist their budget.

Now that the super conferences are aligned, a single governing body oversees the sport and the schedules are uniform, how is the league champion determined?

Fans screamed for a playoff for decades and they got it, next they want the playoff expanded to eight teams and reward teams that win their conferences while avoiding rematches.Every division winner plays in a conference championship game played at a neutral site for each super conference, this acts like the first round of a eight team playoff.  The conference champions move on to a final four which are ranked by the overall record then head to head record, home field record and finally least points allowed to prevent teams from running up the score.

No more polls, worthless rankings and unclear rules that put teams in the playoff.No longer is it up to teams to make their own schedule and arrange opponents years in advance.  Points scored is no longer used as a tie breaking criteria as no one wants to see teams score 70 on a non federation team.  Teams will need to protect their home field and every game matters to determine who wins the division but can survive one or even two losses.

Sports Illustrated has already mentioned the four 16 team super conferences and federation idea.  The non divisional scheduling idea adopted by the NFL was introduced by Fox's Joel Klatt.

I admit this plan is unlikely as it requires massive reconstruction at almost every level of the sport but go back 25 years and look how much the game and sport has changed.  Anything is possible and I sincerely hope this plan could someday happen to take the game we love to the next level.

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Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Why Notre Dame Could Not Stop The 18 Wheeler Package

The Texas Longhorns introduced the 18 wheeler package during the 2015 season to take advantage of Tyrone Swoopes' inside running ability and generate offense to remain competitive. The package remained a consistent threat to the end of the season despite the struggles in the rest of the offense.

The 18 wheeler package is not a ground breaking scheme, it has been around in some variation since the single wing based on the idea that defenses typically do not have to account for the quarterback.

Stopping the run consistently is built around the fundamental idea that the defense has one extra defender on every play to get to the ballcarrier. However this all changes when the quarterback becomes a dual threat as a runner and thrower.  It requires the defense to make a choice, add a defender to the box to account for the quarterback or depend on their defenders to beat a block and make the tackle.

This is the chess match that occurs throughout a football game, the offense looking to exploit a mismatch and the defense constantly looking to respond to their counter moves.

A successful rushing attack requires an offensive line that can handle the line of scrimmage and handle their assignments consistently. The package was built around a physical offensive line headlined by freshman Connor Williams and Patrick Vahe along with blocking tight end Caleb Blueitt. Add backs D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren III to the equation along with Swoopes and the personnel is in place.

Notre Dame planned for the 18 wheeler package and was confident their front seven could handle it effectively without having to introduce an extra defender. Isaac Rochell (90) and Jerry Tillery (99) were the impact lineman counted on to defend it at the line of scrimmage. The Irish were more concerned about the deep pass attack against their fragile secondary.

Texas ran the 18 wheeler package 19 times (18 officially, 1 play resulted in a defensive penalty) for a total of 77 yards for an average of 4 yards per play.
Play No.
ND Defenders in Box
Texas Runner Number
Play Result
1
7
18
9 yard run
2
6
18
4 yard run
3
7
33
6 yard run
4
7
33
6 yard run
5
7
18
14 yard run
6
6
18
4 yard run
7
6
18
5 yard run
8
7
18
-1 yard run
9
7
33
3 yard run
10
8
33
3 yard run
11
7
18
Incomplete Pass
12
11
18
0 yard run
13
11
18
1 yard TD run
14
7
18
1 yard run
15
7
18
3 yard run
16
9
18
3 yard TD run
17
8
18
10 yard run
18
8
18
0 yard run
19
9
18
6 yard TD run

The 18 wheeler package made its 2016 debut in the second quarter at 12:26 from the Texas 12 yard line with the score tied at 7.

Swoopes makes the appropriate read as #24 is blitzing from the offenses' right side would blow up the handoff to Foreman. Lineman #76 Kent Perkins pulls from his right guard position and #55 Conner Williams gets to the second level to allow Swoopes a hole into the secondary. The Irish did not have the numbers nor were they able to defeat the blocks to make the play. Texas gain of 9 yards.

Nine plays later, Texas has moved the ball into Notre Dame territory down to the 37 yard line.  The Irish have held Swoopes and Co. to less than 3 yards only once and now they call in help.

Foreman's inside run goes for a 3 yard gain as the Irish stuff the box with 8 defenders. They have seen the offense drive for over 50 yards on the ground and their linemen unable to defeat blocks consistently. Your move Swoopes.

On the next play, Notre Dame opens with 7 in the box and a safety in the middle of the field.

The nickel back blitzes and other defenders are thinking run first. This means Swoopes has man coverage outside and a safety in the middle of the field. However John Burt is split wide to the left with a corner on his nose on a go route. Advantage Texas but Swoopes overthrows Burt and results in a missed scoring opportunity.

After two unsuccessful runs in the 3rd quarter, the package returns in overtime, score tied at 37. It is 3rd and goal from the 3 and Notre Dame shows 9 in the box.

Foreman goes to the right and takes 2 defenders with him which clears out the middle, poor read by #5 Nyles Morgan. Texas pulls #63 Alex Anderson and #47 Travis Beck runs a misdirection stepping to the right and then across the formation.  Both Anderson and Beck take out the same defender leaving #90 Rochell untouched but just a step slow to keep Swoopes out of the end zone. However Rochell shouldn't have gotten that close as either Anderson or Beck should of gotten a hat on him.

Notre Dame had the numbers to stop the play and the players in the right position.  It was set up for a 1 on 1 match up between #5 Morgan and Swoopes with a go ahead touchdown at stake. Instead Morgan takes a false step toward Foreman and is slow to locate the ball leaving Swoopes a path to the end zone. Touchdown Texas despite the numbers and play design suggesting it shouldn't have happened. Sometimes a player just has to make a play.

The game winning play in second overtime.  2nd and goal from the 6 yard line.

The Irish are all in to stop the run, a Texas touchdown wins the game.  Penetration is the goal for any defender when needing to stop the run for little to no gain.  Texas lost 2 starters on the right side of their offensive line earlier in the game when both right tackle #75 Tristan Nickelson and right guard Kent Perkins went down with leg injuries. Enter backups #63 Anderson and #58 Brandon Hodges both of whom were making their Longhorns debut. A miscommunication between the two results in #99 Jerry Tillery with a clean shot on Swoopes in the backfield. Notre Dame had the numbers to stop the play. Texas had the right play called to succeed despite the mismatch but the blocking assignments were not executed.

Sometimes the player just makes a play and that is exactly what the 18 wheeler package did.


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