The Franchise QB, when to hold them and when to fold them?

The Quarterback, everyone knows is the most important position in all of football, everyone knows you have to have a good one to contend in the NFL and everyone who has one tries to keep them and all the others desperately attempt to acquire one whenever possible.  When is it time to abandon your search and start looking a new signal caller or continue to ride with your guy thinking they will eventually lead the team to a championship?
 
Does it make financial sense to invest a massive amount of your salary cap to a solid QB thinking he gives you the best chance to win a championship or allow him to leave via free agency or trade him to make a run at another QB?  Conventional thinking would suggest you hold onto the QB that knows your offense, you know his strengths and flaws and know he can perform but is that the best decision?
 
Take a look at this.  Since 1992, here is the list of all the QBs who started in the Superbowl within four years of becoming a starter in the league.

Name	Starter Since Year	Super Bowl	Team
John Elway	1983	XXI, XXII, XXIV, XXXII, XXXIII	Denver Broncos
Jim Kelly	1986	XXV, XXVI, XXVII, XXVIII	Buffalo Bills
Troy Aikman	1989	XXVII, XXVIII, XXX	Dallas Cowboys
Steve Young	1991	XXIV	San Francisco 49ers
Stan Humphries	1992	XXIX	San Diego Chargers
Neil O’Donnell	1991	XXX	Pittsburgh Steelers
Drew Bledsoe	1993	XXXI	New England Patriots
Brett Favre	1992	XXXI, XXXII	Green Bay Packers
Kurt Warner	1999	XXXIV, XXXVI, XLIII	St. Louis Rams
Steve McNair	1997	XXXIV	Tennessee Titans
Tom Brady	2001	XXXVI, XXXVIII, XXXIX, XLII, XLVI	New England Patriots
Matt Hasselbeck	2001	XL	Seattle Seahawks
Jake Delhomme	2003	XXXVIII	Carolina Panthers
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	XL, XLIII, XLV	Pittsburgh Steelers
Rex Grossman	2004	XLI	Chicago Bears
Eli Manning	2004	XLII, XLVI	New York Giants
Aaron Rodgers	2008	XLV	Green Bay Packers
Colin Kaepernick	2011	XLVII	San Francisco 49ers
Russell Wilson	2012	XLVIII	Seattle Seahawks

Here are some stats to know what we are looking at.
 
There were 33 out of 44 QBs that started a Superbowl within four years of becoming a starter in the NFL.  Six of them started multiple Superbowls during that time with only one who has started multiple Superbowls despite not making his first within 4 years, Peyton Manning.
 
Here is the list of the QBs who started in a Superbowl after their 4^th year as a starter in the NFL.

Name	Starter Since Year	Super Bowl	Team
Chris Chandler	1988	XXV, XXVI, XXVII, XXVIII	Atlanta Falcons
Rich Gannon	1992	XXXVII	Oakland Raiders
Kerry Collins	1995	XXXV	New York Giants
Trent Dilfer	1995	XXXV	Baltimore Ravens
Brad Johnson	1996	XXXVII	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Donovan McNabb	1999	XXXIX	Philadelphia Eagles
Peyton Manning	1998	XLI, XLIV	Indianapolis Colts/Denver Broncos
Drew Brees	2002	XLIV	New Orleans Saints
Joe Flacco	2008	XLVII	Baltimore Ravens

So what does this all mean?
 
There is no question having a solid QB gives your team the best chance of making the playoffs and winning the division, I argue you should move on if he has not lead the franchise to a Superbowl birth within 4 years.  The data suggest if he hasn’t done it by year 4, it is not going to happen during his career. If it is truly about winning a championship, the GM should make his franchise QB available via trade after year 4 to get the most return on investment and use it to find another QB who can take them to the next level.
 
This idea sounds ridiculous and completely against conventional football wisdom. There is no doubt a team could go from a perennial playoff team to the bottom of the league for a couple of years which would severely hurt the team’s prestige, season tickets and revenue.

Let us take a look at the San Diego Chargers for a moment. Philip Rivers is about to begin his 9^th season as the starting QB with a grand total of 4 playoff victories during that time.  If Rivers were traded in return for draft picks, the Chargers would instantly be a contender for the #1 overall pick in the next year’s draft. They would have to hope they pick the right QB with those picks to give them a chance at a championship otherwise they will stay in the bottom of the league.
 
Is it worth it to be awful for a year but then grab a young franchise QB to make a run at a championship during the crucial 4-year period?
 
Ask the Indianapolis Colts.
 
Should the Atlanta Falcons make the harsh decision on Matt Ryan who will be starting his 7^th season with one playoff win?  What about the Detroit Lions who have yet to win a playoff game with Matthew Stafford after 5 seasons?  Should the Dallas Cowboys join the national bandwagon and trade Tony Romo who has yielded one playoff victory in 8 seasons as the starting QB?
 
It needs to be mentioned that two of the most prolific QBs in modern history both made their first Superbowl after their 4^th year as a starter in Drew Brees and Manning. 
 
There is little doubt that Manning wouldn’t of made it to the Superbowl within 4 years had the Patriots not been in the way. However he is the ONLY QB to start multiple Superbowls after his 4^th year as a starter. There will always be exceptions to any rule and I argue that Manning is that exception here.
 
It is easy to say that Brees’ pro-bowl run in San Diego went to another level when he signed with Sean Payton and the Saints in free agency. The year prior to Brees’ departure in San Diego, he had suffered a horrific shoulder injury in the 2005 regular season finale vs the Broncos. Brees always had something to prove and he seemed ready to use the injury and the Charger’s acquisition of Philip Rivers two years earlier as motivation to dominate the NFC passing records since in New Orleans. Drew Brees’ story suggest cutting ties with a franchise QB who hasn’t made a Superbowl run with one team in 4 years, a new start could reenergize the player to make it to the next level.

Do you think Tony Romo might benefit from going to another franchise that appreciates the play of their QB versus criticizing every mistake he has made when he must play mistake free football year in and year out?  Matt Ryan has had to face harsh criticism with all the weapons available, what kind of pressure would he get if he opened up camp with Cleveland this year?  Could Matthew Stafford take his game to the next level if he had the defensive potential of the Houston Texans instead of the dreadful Lions?
 
Although the QB is the most important position player in football, making this move does not automatically mean the team becomes awful. The San Francisco 49ers moved on from Alex Smith making way for Colin Kaepernick on their run to Superbowl XLVII. Smith moved on to the Kansas City Chiefs through free agency saving San Francisco a ton of money to use at resigning their stout defense.  Smith led the Chiefs to their best season in recent memory and poised to be a contender for the next few years. History suggests that the 49ers made the right choice to give them the best chance at playing in another Superbowl. A perfect trade is when it benefits both teams involved and this could be said for the Chiefs & the 49ers.
 
Heads up Cincinnati Bengals and Carolina Panthers, both Andy Dalton and Cam Newton will enter their 4^th year as a starter in 2014.  The clock is ticking to make the decision on whether to resign them a massive contract or move on and continue looking for a Superbowl QB.
 
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