A scouts perspective

A scouts perspective

Friday, April 28, 2017

2017 NFL Draft - Day II Morning After

The opening round is exciting to get the draft started but the value of every draft comes in the first 100 picks.  Every selection made except for QB in the first 3 rounds should contend for a starting job as a rookie period.

That is the bar every top 100 selection should be judged to determine whether someone used their opening round momentum and carried into Day II or recovered from missing in the first round to add some affordable and talented rookie starters.

Teams that hit on their top 100 picks are able to stay ahead of their salary cap, avoid paying expensive free agent players from other teams and quickly transform their starting lineups with good young players.

Playoff teams over value their rosters thinking their previous season's record will simply repeat itself and they can afford to take more chances with these picks.  This combined with the harder schedule is why I feel there is roughly a 50% turnover in playoff teams year after year.

Lets see who made the most of their second and third round selections.


Cincinnati recovered nicely after a disastrous selection of John Ross in round one.  They brought in Joe Mixon and Jordan Willis who are both starting caliber players on the field. Ofcourse Joe Mixon brings baggage but this is nothing new for the Bengals. They have consistently had no problem taking players with character concerns. Josh Shaw, Vontaze Burfict, Chris Henry to name a few. Joe Mixon the player is the best running back in the draft and they get him at pick #48 overall. He joins a crowded backfield with Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill but Mixon is a better back than both of them. He won't have the job handed to him and the message is clear, his behavior impacted his money in the NFL and that is unfortunately the only lesson our current system allowed him to learn.  The other guy Jordan Willis was a poor workout guy but top production player on film at Kansas State. He plays big and athletic to get after the QB from the edge and I think he surprises people as a rookie as a top rotational guy who can press for a starting job by season's end.

The best GM in the NFL is Ozzie Newsome and he owned Day II of the draft.  He gets the best athlete in the draft behind Myles Garrett in Tyrus Bowser from Houston.  He can line up anywhere, terror as a blitzer, cover anyone in space and rush the passer.  Now he's raw for sure but the ability to make an impact is there without question.  Chris Wormley is a solid interior lineman who can play both positions and be a top rotational player.  Then he hit it out of the park in the 3rd round with Tim Williams from Alabama.  He is an elite speed rushing terror on the outside who will terrorize QBs.  Now he was available in the 3rd round because passing the drug test will be a challenge for him but the risk was far worth the potential value.  Landing an elite first round talent pass rusher in the mid 3rd round is potentially a home run.

The Arizona Cardinals are set on defense with 2 studs in Haason Reddick and Bubba Baker who are both versatile day one starters. Reddick is a plus weapon in coverage, can blitz from anywhere and blow up plays in the backfield. Baker is undersized but he is a playmaker and a terror near the line of scrimmage.  Not every team could handle these type of prospects and incorporate them into an NFL defense properly but the Cardinals are one of those teams.  They simply want athletes on their defense, speed and aggressiveness to attack offenses.  Check those boxes for Reddick and Baker.

The Buffalo Bills did a good job with two 2nd round picks, acquiring Zay Jones and Dion Dawkins. Jones surprised teams at the combine running an impressive 4.45, he was projected as a 4.6 guy based on his tape. I still think Jones is primarily an underneath and intermediate type receiver in the NFL who runs good routes and able to make the difficult catch in traffic.  Dion Dawkins could play tackle but I like him much better as a guard. Good players and day one starters.

Dallas addressed their defensive issues on Day II acquiring solid cornerback talent in Chidobe Awuzi and Jourdan Lewis. Awuzi was a very good selection at the end of the second round who can play inside and outside with physical style of play and not afraid to tackle receivers. Lewis brings good ball skills to the position which was desperately needed who is also one of the most physical corners as well though a bit smaller than Awuzi.

The Chargers addressed the interior of the offensive line with excellent guards on each side. Forrest Lamp is a plus starter and Dan Feeney is more than capable himself though not as talented as Lamp. They added a playmaker at receiver with Mike Williams from Clemson and have the makings of a solid offensive line.  Teams that control the line of scrimmage are contenders and they took a step to ensure they can do that this year.

The Patriots hit on their 2 third round picks in Derek Rivers and Antonio Garcia.  Rivers is a top sleeper from Youngstown State but he more than held his own at the Senior Bowl and lit up the combine showing he can get it done as a speed weak side rusher.  Antonio Garcia from Troy is another sleeper with excellent potential as a tackle who can start in this league.

Pittsburgh is one of the most well run organizations in football.  They know who they are and do not play games when it comes to the draft. They don't trade, they just take the best players that fall to them. It happens every year and they hit more times than they miss. TJ Watt as an ideal speed rushing threat, JuJu Smith-Schuster as a good receiving option, Cameron Sutton as a solid cornerback and James Conner as a perfect power back staying home in Pittsburgh.  They stay ahead of the salary cap because they draft well and their depth is ready to deal with injuries so they keep contending for the playoffs every year.

Washington has solidified their defense with a stud pass rushing tackle in Jonathan Allen, a plus outside linebacker threat in Ryan Anderson from Alabama and a perfect physical corner in Fabian Moreau from UCLA. They noticed how the Giants attacked the Cowboys and now might have the tools to execute the same plan this year.


Cleveland killed their momentum from the first round with Deshone Kizer and Larry Ogunjobi on Day II. Kizer hurt himself prior to the draft with his comments about his preparation and overstating his physical abilities. His poor game performances where he lost his starting job certainly do not help his case. Then he goes to a team that has perhaps the worst QB situation in the league.  He was going to need to go a team that had a solid foundation and not really need him to play anytime soon, neither of which is true in Cleveland.  Ogunjobi is one of the top sleepers in the draft but he was a reach in the first pick in the 3rd round. He was a inconsistent player, motor that didn't run all the time and poor technique which is a bad combination.

The New York Giants are having the worst draft of any team through 3 rounds.  They reached for a receiving only tight end who can't block and isn't an explosive receiving threat either in the same class as Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow, Antonio Gates or Jimmy Graham. It looked like someone who was dead set on a tight end regardless and even so they passed on a better prospect David Njoku. They took Dalvin Tomlinson who isn't a bad player but you don't spend a premium pick in the 2nd round for an asset you can get much later.  Run stuffing defensive tackles can be found late in the draft but again they were dead set on replacing Hankins using the same asset they used to acquire him. Their disaster was complete wasting a top 100 selection on an undrafted graded QB in Davis Webb from California.

San Francisco hurt the momentum they built off an A+ opening round taking a talented but wildly inconsistent corner. Then a QB that was so far off the radar made you wonder if you had the name right in CJ Beathard from Iowa.

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