Do Not Draft Prospect: Justin Pugh, Syracuse

As the Draft season gets fully underway with the combine going on this week, I'll be talking about prospects I want Dallas to target.  Along the same lines, there will be prospects I want nothing to do with it for numerous reasons, character, motor, don't fit in the scheme or just players I don't think are good players.

First edition of this segment brings up offensive lineman Justin Pugh from Syracuse.  He has experience having started 4 years after redshirting but the best this guy could be is a backup or practice squad guy in Dallas.

He has the second worst combination for any offensive lineman prospect, very short arms and not very strong. He measured in at the combine with just 32" arm length and he plays like a guy who struggles to keep rushers off his body as well. Then factor in the fact he's not a mauler by any means nor has the leg drive to get a push in the running game.

He does move very well, get the second level often but at best, Pugh projects as a left guard in a zone blocking scheme only. With that said, guards have to play with power throughout the course of a game and Pugh will struggle at the NFL level handling tackles with strength.

As a hardcore Cowboys fan, I can see two reasons why Dallas would have interest in Pugh. One, they like guys with lots of starting experience just like any organization, more experience presents more evidence so scouts can feel better about their analysis of what a player can/can't do. Second, Dallas has had a awful run of developing offensive lineman not named Tyron Smith. They have drafted guys who had obvious flaws in college, never improved at Valley Ranch and then gone.

Their track record at picking offensive lineman is about as bad as it gets so I don't have much faith in them being able to sort out the bad from the good prospects. But I am confident to say that Justin Pugh is one to pass on by on draft day, if he works out with someone else, great and good for him.

Dallas Cowboys Draft Target: Cornellius "Tank" Carradine, Florida State

Cornellius Carradine
Florida State

2013 Combine Measurables:
Height:  6'4"
Weight:  276 lbs
Arm Length: 34 3/4"
Hand Size: 10 1/4"

I've spent most of the day studying Florida State DE Cornellius Carradine, extremely talented but inexperienced pass rusher. He only started one year at Florida State after transferring from a junior college.

He did not start as a junior simply due to the fact that Florida State had two first round prospects ahead of him on the depth chart. He's got the frame, arm length and hand size needed to be a very good NFL rusher. He tore his ACL against Florida during his senior year and will need to be checked medically this week at the combine. That will greatly decide his draft stock but based upon potential and the limited but positive production puts him as a early 2nd round prospect. However teams in the top of round 2 won't want a player who most likely won't be able to help them in year 1 so that could bump him into the middle of round two. Cowboy fans may frown on the pick for the same reason but Bruce Carter worked out pretty well didn't he under similar circumstances?

I think he will be on the Cowboys radar as Carradine has the non stop motor every cowboy drafted under Jason Garrett has to have. Second, obviously he's a need position and a sure fire first round pick had he not gotten hurt. He wore 91 at Florida State and draws favorable comparisons to former Notre Dame player Justin Tuck.

I watched five of his games, best effort was easily vs Duke. Florida State destroyed Duke and Carradine was just a terror all day. The LT for Duke had no business being on the field with him. That game film is not a accurate reflection of Carradine but it show you what he is capable of.


The worst film is probably vs Florida or South Florida. The competition was better vs Florida and USF ran the ball far more right at him. I was surprised how well Carradine holds his own at the POA but he struggles to shed blocks. I was also surprised how well he can get inside a tackle on the rush, shoots the gap and draws a lot of holding calls or inside penetration to force the QB to move out of the pocket.

I noticed he struggles with counter moves, too be expected considering the lack of experience and when he gets tired, he will let blockers get into his body and he is easily contained. He takes poor angles which again I am not surprised about, the effort and athleticism is there. The more football this kid plays, the less of an issue I think that will be and he makes a lot of tackles anyway, that will go up once he reads those angles better.

He is not polished by any means nor is he as talented as Werner at FSU but confident with the effort and tools Carradine has to work with. He may not be a premier pass rusher but profiles to me as a 6-8 sack/yr guy while also being a equally strong defender vs the run on the strongisde in a 4-3.
 

Cowboys cap situation and cuts

Free - $9,060,000
Penalty - $6,180,000
Net Gain: 2,880,000

So bottom line if you cut Free & Ratliff only save $3,880,000

Dan Connor - $4,350,000
Penalty - $1,350,000
Net Gain - $3,000,000

Gerald Sensabaugh - $3,750,000
Penalty - $2,250,000
Net Gain - $1,500,000

Marcus Spears - $2,700,000
Penalty - $2,100,000
Net Gain - $600k

Miles Austin - $8,302,000
Penalty - $4,710,000
Net Gain - $3,592,000

Even if you made all these cuts would clear: $12,572,000.

Also would mean you would have $16,590,000 in dead money on 2013 cap.

Sports Corner SHow Notes 1/13/12

Cowboys fire Rob Ryan, hire former Bucs DC Monte Kiffin, 4-3 defense comes back to Dallas.

-          Reason for Ryan firing: Jerry said the defenses performance against the Seahawks and Bears were primary reasons for his dismissal. (The offense and special teams unit turned the ball over 8 times in those 2 games).

-          This move was all Jerry, confirms Jason Garrett is a puppet head coach just as we all suspected all along.

-          Defense moves to 4-3 scheme but more importantly the cover 2 scheme. This puts less a priority on corners in coverage (yr after you traded 2^nd round pick and $50 million for Carr & Claiborne). Puts more coverage responsibilities on the safeties. Also, the corners have to be better run defenders. Neither of which is their forte.

o       Huge questions along Dline, you have DWare but that’s it. Spencer is free agent, cost $8 million a yr over 4-5 yrs. Can’t depend that Jay Ratliff will be impact player with his recent history (durability and declining play prior to that).

-          Team should admit mistakes and pay the financial price for it.

o       Miles Austin, Jay Ratliff, Doug Free, Gerald Sensabaugh, Marcus Spears, Dan Connor need to go. Problem is they will not admit those mistakes since they have no alternative due to constant misses in draft.

Mavericks win two in a row!

-          Beat the Memphis Grizzlies 104 – 83. Key was a tough defensive performance, held the Grizzlies to 39 points in the first half, by far their best performance defensively to date. Other key point is Mavs had six players score double digits vs a team that ranked 2^nd in NBA in scoring defense.

o       Record is now 15-23.

-          Despite Mavericks poor start to the season, Cuban said he has no plans to trade Dirk.

The NHL lockout is officially over and there will be hockey this year.

-          First order of business for Stars will be to lock up Jamie Benn to a new contract. Team wants to sign him to a 3 yr deal for about $6 million a yr. Benn wants a 5-6 yr deal that takes him right to unrestricted free agency to hit a well deserved big payday.

-          Stars first game is Saturday, January 19^th vs the Phoenix Coyotes.

o       Team will not be a overly physical team especially defensively, think will have a hard time holding onto leads.

o       The powerplay should be drastically improved adding capable scorers in the top 6.

o       The lockout shorterned season should help the old vets of Ray Whitney & Jaromir Jagr make a consistent impact this season.

Rangers sign DH Lance Berkman

-          Signed him to one year $11 million deal with a club option for a second year.

o       He will be the switch hitting bat to help give protection to the top half of the lineup. Washington has already said he will hit 3^rd.

o       Berkman will work pitchers and not be the easy out (first pitch swinging) that plagued Josh Hamilton, Mike Young and even Ian Kinsler.

o       Durability is a concern after he played only 32 games in 2012 but team is banking on a performance of 130 games, 30 homers with 90 plus RBIs hitting around .290

o       I really like the signing as gives Rangers a tough out in the lineup and if the team gets off to a poor start or even out of the running for a playoff spot. This along with other veterans a valuable trade piece to send elsewhere and get good prospects in return.

Top 200 Prospects 2013 NFL Draft

Thanks to National Football Post...These are the top 200 prospects for the 2013 NFL Draft.

I love keeping this list as this is based off their performances of the entire regular season.  Bowl game performances, all-star games, combine results or interviews have not had a chance to influence their draft grades. 

In March, I will post a updated top 200 list to compare what players have risen or fallen based off factors that had zero influence on these played the game of football when it mattered.

Rank	Name	Pos	School
1	Bjoern Werner	DE	Florida State
2	Jake Matthews	OT	Texas A&M
3	Star Lotulelei	DT	Utah
4	Luke Joeckel	OT	Texas A&M
5	Chance Warmack	OG	Alabama
6	Keenan Allen	WR	California
7	Kenny Vaccaro	S	Texas
8	Sheldon Richardson	DT	Missouri
9	Taylor Lewan	OT	Michigan
10	Dion Jordan	DE	Oregon
11	Dee Milliner	CB	Alabama
12	Jessie Williams	DT	Alabama
13	Alec Ogletree	ILB	Georgia
14	Manti Te'o	ILB	Notre Dame
15	Jonathan Hankins	DT	Ohio State
16	Eric Fisher	OT	Central Michigan
17	Sam Montgomery	DE	LSU
18	Quinton Patton	WR	Louisiana Tech
19	Tler Eifert	TE	Notre Dame
20	Tavon Austin	WR	West Virginia
21	Jonathan Cooper	OG	North Carolina
22	Jonathan Banks	CB	Mississippi State
23	Ezekial Ansah	DE	BYU
24	Robert Woods	WR	USC
25	Oday Aboushi	OT	Virginia
26	Corey Lemonier	DE	Auburn
27	Zach Ertz	TE	Stanford
28	Geovani Bernard	RB	North Carolina
29	Kawann Short	DT	Purdue
30	Terrance Williams	WR	Baylor
31	Kevin Minter	ILB	LSU
32	Michael Glennon	QB	North Carolina State
33	Arthur Brown	ILB	Kansas State
34	Kyle Van Noy	OLB	BYU
35	Justin Hunter	WR	Tennessee
36	Brandon Jenkins	OLB	Florida State
37	James Tyler Wilson	QB	Arkansas
38	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	Clemson
39	Cordelle Patterson	WR	Tennessee
40	Geno Smith	QB	West Virginia
41	Matt Barkely	QB	USC
42	Jarvis Jones	OLB	Georgia
43	Barrett Jones	CB	Alabama
44	D.J. Fluker	OT	Alabama
45	Eric Reid	S	LSU
46	Khaseem Greene	OLB	Rutgers
47	Melvin White	CB	Louisiana-Lafayette
48	Cobi Hamilton	WR	Arkansas
49	Damontre Moore	DE	Texas A&M
50	Montee Ball	RB	Wisconsin
51	Xavier Rhodes	CB	Florida State
52	Stedman Bailey	WR	West Virginia
53	Cornel Carradine	DE	Florida State
54	Sharif Floyd	DT	Florida
55	Anthony Barr	OLB	UCLA
56	Matt Elam	ATH	Florida
57	Justin Pugh	OT	Syracuse
58	Aaron Dobson	WR	Marshall
59	Slyvester Williams	DT	North Carolina
60	Andre Ellington	RB	Clemson
61	Margus Hunt	DE	SMU
62	Barkevious Mingo	OLB	LSU
63	Chase Thomas	OLB	Stanford
64	Akeem Spence	DT	Illinois
65	Tony Jefferson	ATH	Oklahoma
66	Lane Johnson	OT	Oklahoma
67	Joseph Randle	RB	Oklahoma State
68	Shayne Skov	ILB	Stanford
69	James Gayle	DE	Virginia Tech
70	David Amerson	ATH	North Carolina State
71	Da'Rick Rogers	WR	Tennessee Tech
72	Jordan Poyer	CB	Oregon State
73	Robert Lester	ATH	Alabama
74	Chris Harper	WR	Kansas State
75	Jelani Jenkins	OLB	Florida
76	Ticory Grissom	NT	South Florida
77	Richard Wagner	OT	Wisconsin
78	Aaron Murray	QB	Georgia
79	Marquess Wilson	WR	Washington State
80	Kenny Stills	WR	Oklahoma
81	Zaviar Gooden	OLB	Missouri
82	William Gholston	DE	Michigan State
83	Will Davis	CB	Utah State
84	Lawrence Warford	OG	Kentucky
85	Tyler Bray	QB	Tennessee
86	Jordan Reed	TE	Florida
87	Aaron Klein	OLB	Iowa State
88	Nico Johnson	OLB	Alabama
89	Jamie Collins	OLB	Southern Miss
90	Leon McFadden	CB	San Diego State
91	Corey Fuller	WR	Virginia Tech
92	Erik Manuel	QB	Florida State
93	Jonathan Brown	OLB	Illinois
94	Landry Jones	QB	Oklahoma
95	Brandon Magee	OLB	Arizona State
96	Dallas Thomas	OT	Tennessee
97	Travis Frederick	OG	Wisconsin
98	Zac Dysert	QB	Miami (OH)
99	Michael Williams	ATH	Nevada
100	Kyle Fuller	CB	Virginia Tech
101	Blidi Wreh-Wilson	CB	Uconn
102	Ryan Nassib	QB	Syracuse
103	Kyle Long	OT	Oregon
104	Quintin Williams	ATH	Georgia
105	Dennard Robinson	ATH	Michigan
106	Kevin Reddick	ILB	North Carolina
107	Michael Gillislee	RB	Florida
108	Michael Mauti	OLB	Penn State
109	Brennan Williams	OT	North Carolina
110	Mychal Rivera	TE	Tennessee
111	Stepfan Taylor	RB	Stanford
112	John Simon	DE	Ohio State
113	Bradley McDougald	ATH	Kansas
114	Brent Russell	DT	Georgia Southern
115	DJ Swearinger	ATH	South Carolina
116	Etienne Sabino	OLB	Ohio State
117	Joshua	ATH	Florida
118	Marcus Davis	WR	Virginia Tech
119	Terry Hawthorne	CB	Illinois
120	John Jenkins	DT	Georgia
121	Jacob Knott	OLB	Iowa State
122	Christine Michael	RB	Texas A&M
123	Sheldon Price	CB	UCLA
124	Brandon Williams	DT	Missouri Southern
125	Phillip Thomas	ATH	Fresno State
126	Ryan Lacy	CB	Utah
127	Chris Borland	MLB	Wisconsin
128	Dennis Johnson	RB	Arkansas
129	Jordan Hill	DT	Penn State
130	Cyril Richardson	OT	Baylor
131	Malliciah Goodman	DE	Clemson
132	Bacarri Rambo	S	Georgia
133	Hugh Thornton	OG	Illinois
134	Brian Winters	OT	Kent State
135	Cierre Wood	RB	Notre Dame
136	Devin Taylor	DE	South Carolina
137	Gerald Hodges	OLB	Penn State
138	Johnathan Franklin	RB	UCLA
139	Khaled Holmes	OC	USC
140	John Wetzel	OT	Boston College
141	Mike Buchanan	DE	Illinois
142	Joseph Fauria	TE	UCLA
143	Ryan Swope	WR	Texas A&M
144	Oscar Johnson	OT	Louisiana Tech
145	Anthony White	NT	Michigan State
146	Tim McDonald Jr	ATH	USC
147	Everette Dawkins	DT	Florida State
148	Wes Horton	DE	USC
149	Anthony McCloud	NT	Florida State
150	Seantrel Henderson	OT	Miami
151	La'veon Bell	RB	Michigan State
152	Chris Jacobson	OG	Pittsburgh
153	Chris Norman	OLB	Michigan State
154	Phi Lutzenkirchen	TE	Auburn
155	Chris Gragg	TE	Arkansas
156	Kaleb Ramsey	DT	Boston College
157	Stacy McGee	DT	Oklahoma
158	Sean Porter	OLB	Texas A&M
159	Eddie Lacy	RB	Alabama
160	Darryl Stonum	WR	Baylor
161	Marquis Jackson	DE	Texas Southern
162	Datone Jones	DE	UCLA
163	Curtis McNeal	RB	USC
164	Devon Christopher	WR	Utah
165	Jamal Miles	WR	Arizona State
166	Josh Boyd	DT	Mississippi State
167	Chris Holloman	ATH	South Carolina
168	Donald Coles	WR	Virginia Tech
169	Keith Pough	OLB	Howard
170	Sanders Commings	CB	Georgia
171	Tyrann Mathieu	CB	LSU
172	Zach Mettenberger	QB	LSU
173	Marquise Goodwin	WR	Texas
174	Kenneth Tate	OLB	Maryland
175	Ramon Buchanan	OLB	Miami
176	Michael Burkhead	RB	Nebraska
177	Johnny Adams	CB	Michigan State
178	Devin Street	WR	Pittsburgh
179	Kenjon Barner	RB	Oregon
180	Raymond Graham	RB	Pittsburgh
181	Xavier Nixon	OT	Florida
182	Nathaniel Williams	DE	Ohio State
183	Jared Smith	DT	New Hampshire
184	Brian Mulroe	OG	Northwestern
185	Markus Wheaton	WR	Oregon State
186	Montori Hughes	DT	Tennessee Martin
187	Desmond Trufant	CB	Washington
188	Jonathan Bostic	ILB	Florida
189	John Sullen	OG	Auburn
190	Drew Frey	ATH	Cincinnati
191	Montel Harris	RB	Temple
192	Benjamin Cotton	TE	Nebraska
193	John White	RB	Utah
194	Alex Okafor	DE	Texas
195	Luke Marquardt	OT	Azusa Pacific
196	Matt Scott	QB	Arizona
197	Joseph Vellanodt	ATH	Maryland
198	David King	DE	Oklahoma
199	Collin Klein	QB	Kansas State
200	Daimion Stafford	ATH	Nebraska

How will Ranger nation handle this team rebuilding?

Make no bones about it.  GM Jon Daniels and Inc. are rebuidling the Rangers roster.

They had a plan to try and quickly reload it and still be a contender in the AL West.  All those plans fell apart and they have decided to play all the kids.

Fresh off a season where Rangers ballpark set the record for highest attendance in club history, not going to be the case this year.  Unfortunately for hardcore fans, ticket prices will not be adjusted, mini game plans will not be adjusted.  You will be expected to pay the same dollar that most were happy to pay for a team fresh off back to back AL titles.

But how will fans react to paying the same increased amount for a rebuilding team, the team had a payroll of $120,510,975 in 2012.

If the team gets off a good start like it did in 2012, it won't matter.  People will pay for a winner regardless of the heat or commute from Dallas or Ft. Worth.  However what happens if the team gets off to a 8-15 start like the Angels did in 2012?

We have to expect this team is going to fall back to earth in a sense next year, they are going to depend on 3 rookies make serious impacts immediately (Profar, Olt and Perez).  They are depending on a starting pitcher to ace the staff after one year of major league experience, history suggest a sophomore slump will happen especially considering threw over 195 innings last year.  I suppose offensively the team will lean on Kinsler, Beltre and Cruz to be the focus, all of whom have durability questions or severe consistency issues.

The good news is the team has some interesting trade pieces to deal at the deadline if they are out of the running, mainly Pierzynski, Colby Lewis, Nelson Cruz and Joe Nathan.

If they happen to hang with the Angels in the west, they have the prospects and payroll flexibility to take on a plus quality player even if its a huge contract. I just don't see this team able to stick with the halos or even the defending division champs Athletics.

The franchise will ask for your patience and tell you how good Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt, Martin Perez and even Leonys Martin will be.  Fact is the odds of successfully hitting on a prospect is 30% so of the 4 mentioned, confident only one of them will be a top major league player.

The team should basically sell this season off, trade as many veterans at the deadline as teams will take, get your prospects and enter next offseason in a buying frenzy.  Trade those prospects for the right pieces to take this roster to the next level.

One disturbing trend I noticed during the 2012 offseason is a team fresh of a record payroll was scared to pull the trigger in free agency. The fact is GM Daniels is you will almost ALWAYS overpay in free agency for a quality player. You resign your own, trade for players or develop your prospects if you want to stay away from wide open free agency. They are going to try the cheap route in 2013 since the record payroll of 2012 did not yield the desired results.

Can't tell me the Rangers had this in mind

Reminds me to the Mavericks pipe dream of the 2012 offseason plan of signing Deron Williams, then trade for Dwight Howard to quickly build a contender. The plan fell apart and so did the backup plans.

The Rangers find themselves in a similiar state but with a few thankful alternatives I will mention shortly. They hoped to sign Zack Greinke to shore up the rotation and give them a dominating 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Then use the farm system to acquire a top bat and allow them to move on from Josh Hamilton, the names involved were Justin Upton or even resign Hamilton.

The Rangers organization were involved in almost every rumor involving top players at the winter meetings but refused to trade any of the top prospects. Other teams moved on simply leaving the Rangers on the outside looking in. Greinke went to the Dodgers, Arizona acquired a average safety in a multi-team trade and decided they were better off not trading Upton and for kicks, Hamilton signed for 5-years with AL West rival LA Angels De California.

So incase you missed it, here's what the Rangers have done thus far.

Lost
Mike Napoli (deal still pending with Red Sox)
Mike Adams
Koji Uhera
Josh Hamilton

Traded away Mike Young

Signed
Joakim Soria (Recovering from Tommy John surgery)
AJ Pierzynski

This team is weak in the middle of the lineup with no bats that will intimidate opposing pitchers. Only Adrian Beltre has the bat to consistently beat teams with power  but he will have no one to protect him. Nelson Cruz is not the consistent power threat to be that kind of guy and AJ might fill that role but it seems wishful thinking at this point.

Management has been mute on the plans for Kinsler this year, his job at second is in jeopardy as Jurickson Profar will be given every opportunity to take his job at spring. Does he move to first base or left field? I like Kinsler's bat and I want him more in a role he can drive more runs in than a simple solo shot to start a game. I am against having him as a leadoff guy, would rather have Andrus in that role. I like the idea of Profar in the 9 spot with Andrus at leadoff, Murphy at 2nd followed by Kinsler, Beltre and AJ.

The team is also weak in the bullpen as well as the back end of the rotation. The team has said they will make Alexi Ogando a starter this year despite a huge hole as a 8th inning power relief pitcher. Ogando was an excellent starting pitcher two years ago but faded fast down the stretch. This team is going to have to win with pitching and defense, the offense will have trouble scoring consistently. I value starting pitching over a set up man, I'd rather have Ogando in the rotation where he has success at the ML level and acquire a veteran set up reliever prior to spring training. I understand the arguement need to be strong in the bullpen especially when team will have trouble scoring runs but same is true if you are down 4 nothing after two innings.

I expect Robbie Ross will become a extremely consistent reliever and become that set up man until Soria returns from his surgery to form a solid back end of the bullpen as well as a future closer in Soria when Joe Nathan heads to free agency next year.