A scouts perspective

A scouts perspective

Saturday, December 29, 2012

How will Ranger nation handle this team rebuilding?

Make no bones about it.  GM Jon Daniels and Inc. are rebuidling the Rangers roster.

They had a plan to try and quickly reload it and still be a contender in the AL West.  All those plans fell apart and they have decided to play all the kids.

Fresh off a season where Rangers ballpark set the record for highest attendance in club history, not going to be the case this year.  Unfortunately for hardcore fans, ticket prices will not be adjusted, mini game plans will not be adjusted.  You will be expected to pay the same dollar that most were happy to pay for a team fresh off back to back AL titles.

But how will fans react to paying the same increased amount for a rebuilding team, the team had a payroll of $120,510,975 in 2012.

If the team gets off a good start like it did in 2012, it won't matter.  People will pay for a winner regardless of the heat or commute from Dallas or Ft. Worth.  However what happens if the team gets off to a 8-15 start like the Angels did in 2012?

We have to expect this team is going to fall back to earth in a sense next year, they are going to depend on 3 rookies make serious impacts immediately (Profar, Olt and Perez).  They are depending on a starting pitcher to ace the staff after one year of major league experience, history suggest a sophomore slump will happen especially considering threw over 195 innings last year.  I suppose offensively the team will lean on Kinsler, Beltre and Cruz to be the focus, all of whom have durability questions or severe consistency issues.

The good news is the team has some interesting trade pieces to deal at the deadline if they are out of the running, mainly Pierzynski, Colby Lewis, Nelson Cruz and Joe Nathan.

If they happen to hang with the Angels in the west, they have the prospects and payroll flexibility to take on a plus quality player even if its a huge contract. I just don't see this team able to stick with the halos or even the defending division champs Athletics.

The franchise will ask for your patience and tell you how good Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt, Martin Perez and even Leonys Martin will be.  Fact is the odds of successfully hitting on a prospect is 30% so of the 4 mentioned, confident only one of them will be a top major league player.

The team should basically sell this season off, trade as many veterans at the deadline as teams will take, get your prospects and enter next offseason in a buying frenzy.  Trade those prospects for the right pieces to take this roster to the next level.

One disturbing trend I noticed during the 2012 offseason is a team fresh of a record payroll was scared to pull the trigger in free agency. The fact is GM Daniels is you will almost ALWAYS overpay in free agency for a quality player. You resign your own, trade for players or develop your prospects if you want to stay away from wide open free agency. They are going to try the cheap route in 2013 since the record payroll of 2012 did not yield the desired results.

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