The best answer is not likely the one any fan wants to hear, we really don't know until 3 years from now.
The reason for this is simple. Players just need time to adjust to the games highest level and also for those who are not cut out for the big leagues to find their way elsewhere.
High pick busts can be inserted into the starting lineup despite not earning the job but teams are reluctant to giving up on them after just a year. Meanwhile, mid round picks who have out performed those ahead of him on the depth chart often need a season before teams give them the increased playing time they deserve.
After 3 seasons in the NFL, the separation between them is clear.
Now is the time for that draft to be accurately accessed.
I was prepared to do this for the 2015 NFL Draft when a question gave me pause.
Is it more important to highlight who had the most successful draft picks or evaluate how accurate the draft grades assigned to each prospect?
Is it more impactful to know, did all the prospects given a first round grade work out? How do these experts evaluations stack up with historical success rates?
Every scout needs to be accountable for their evaluation and I decided to take this approach beginning with the 2015 draft.
How to determine if a scouts grade was appropriate?
Prospects are generally given a grade associated with the round they should be selected in. The lower the grade, the less likelihood the player will become a starter. In addition, the best prospects in the draft may be given an elite grade suggesting they have little to no flaws in their game and should become one of the games best.
Grade
|
Criteria
|
Elite
|
Starter for 100% of games played and receive at least one all-pro or pro-bowl selection.
|
First
|
Starter for more than 80% of games played or reach at least one all-pro or pro-bowl selection.
|
Second
|
Starter for more than 70% of games played or reach at least one all-pro or pro-bowl selection. (QBs must start at least 30 games unless due to injury)
|
Third
|
Starter for at least 16 games or appear in at least 32 games. (QBs must start at least 16 games unless due to injury)
|
Fourth
|
Starter for less than 40% of games played. (QBs must start 10 or fewer games)
|
Fifth
|
Starter for less than 20% of games played.
|
Sixth
|
Does not start more than 6 games or cut by original team.
|
Seventh
|
Does not start any games or cut by original team.
|
Undrafted
|
Does not make team.
|
133 players were evaluated for the 2015 NFL Draft including 17 first round grades.
There were 84 players assigned a grade in the first 3 rounds. This is where rookie starters and a majority of the league's starters come from. A prospect with a grade in this area is expected to become a starter in the NFL early in their career if not during their rookie season.
However prospects graded in the middle rounds are expected to back up the starter, play special teams and compete for a starting job by their 3rd season.
A scout is expected to predict the path a prospect is going to take with a fair amount of accuracy. Their bosses have invested millions of dollars into prospects and picking the right prospect can instantly transform a team into a contender for championships. Best of luck answering to ownership when the high pick doesn't work out.
So, what is acceptable?
Grade
|
Accurate rate
|
A+
|
90%
|
A
|
75%
|
B
|
60%
|
C
|
50%
|
F
|
49% or less
|
The Kansas City Chiefs fan website Arrowheadpride.com wrote an article in 2015 about the draft success rates. This article was used as reference to determine the standard. You can find the article here.
The NFL average success rate for the opening round is 65% declining steadily by round to 43% in the 2nd and 28% in the 3rd.
The results.
Round
|
Accurate rate
|
First
|
76% (13/17)
|
Second
|
38% (13/34)
|
Third
|
73% (24/33)
|
Fourth
|
59% (16/27)
|
Fifth
|
47% (7/15)
|
Sixth
|
67% (4/6)
|
Seventh
|
N/A
|
Undrafted
|
100% (1/1)
|
The overall accuracy rate was 59%. Obviously the second round did not go as anticipated. Thank you Randy Gregory, Danielle Hunter, Bud Dupree, Henry Anderson and Eli Harold.
I am not a professional scout. An amateur scout should not be able to outperform professional general managers and scouts.
And yet I did.
