2017 NFL Season Preview

The 2017 season begins Thursday with the champion New England Patriots hosting the Kansas City Chiefs.

No more worthless preseason games, the fantasy drafts are complete and now we get to see what this season will bring.

Every season there is high turnover on the playoff teams and preseason favorites fail to meet expectations for a variety of reasons.

So with that said, let's outline what we can expect in 2017.  I will revisit this in February to see how terrible my predictions were.

Let us begin with who are the most improved teams heading into 2017 whether by coaching change, free agency signings and selections in the draft.

The Cincinnati Bengals have added a lot of weapons offensively to go with an improved defense that shapes well for them this season.  They will have to survive the first few weeks due to suspensions and tough 4 game stretch.  I like the backfield of Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard, Jeremy Hill will not be the season long feature back.  Andy Dalton is not an elite QB but he is solid and should benefit by throwing the ball less as they run with success.  The wildcard is their offensive line which is not a strength.  If defenses shut the run down early and forces Dalton to throw more then their season could take a turn.  I expect the Bengals get off to a 1-3 start but they get on a run becoming one of the hottest teams heading into the playoffs.

The Houston Texans will be better for 2 simple reasons.  No more Brock Osweiler and healthy return of JJ Watt.  Tom Savage won the starting job away from rookie DeShaun Watson and he is a steady QB who will throw the ball downfield and past first down markers on 3rd down, neither of which Osweiler did on a regular basis.  They have a deep backfield with Lamar Miller and I think D'onta Foreman will end up getting the second most carries by season's end ahead of Alfred Blue. The only concern is the offensive tackle situation, the ongoing contract dispute with left tackle Duane Brown and loss of right tackle Derek Newton.  An offense can slow down to a crawl even with a real good QB if the offensive line struggles, just watch Seattle.

Los Angeles Chargers are not a deep team but they have good cornerstone pieces.  They remind me of the Raiders from a season ago that can surprise people led by their franchise pass rusher in Joey Bosa and talented offense.  They would be wise to utilize a 2 TE offense to get Hunter Henry on the field with Antonio Gates.  They have a tough schedule which will keep them from winning the division but they survive to take a wildcard spot.

The NFL is a copycat league and the Arizona Cardinals are going to force a change in how teams play defense to slow down the pass happy offenses.  They are deep and good on the defensive line and extremely versatile at linebacker. Watch out for Haason Reddick who can run like a safety, rush like an end and hit in space like a linebacker.  Deone Buchanan got the job to start the season but that won't last long.  The blueprint of strong rushing attack and a dominating defense often leads to the playoffs.

Each season a young team breaks out to become a contender, two years ago it was the Carolina Panthers, last year it was the Raiders and this year I think it will be the Tennessee Titans.  They remind me of the Dallas Cowboys a year ago, young solid QB with a deep backfield, elite offensive line and a defense that finds a way to keep the opponent out of the end zone despite not getting turnovers.  Their schedule is not overly intimidating and young QBs that are playoff contenders break through by their 4th season in the league.  Marcus Mariota is entering his 3rd season and I think this team is poised to make a serious run.

While every team makes improvements, some get too much hype that I do not see translating into wins on the field.  They might help you dominate your fantasy league but thats the only championships their stats will earn this season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are loaded at the skill positions and teams featured on Hard Knocks always energize fanbases but it is a false hope in my opinion.  You should not ever trust a team that is lead by a dumb football player at the most important position.  Jameis Winston is a dumb player, he is reckless with the ball and is not aware on the field. He is the perfect fantasy and video game QB but he is not someone you can win a championship with at this point.

The Minnesota Vikings spent a lot of money in free agency and the draft to fix their offense but failed to improve the most important position.  Sam Bradford is terrible and although their rushing attack should be better with Davin Cook and an improved offensive line but it isn't enough.

Here are my picks for the divisional champions.

AFC East - New England.  They still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichek.

AFC North - Cincinnati Bengals.  Every NFL season there is high turnover amongst the playoff teams and the Bengals take the division from the Steelers.

AFC South - Tennessee Titans. Surprise team of the league who beat the Texans for a division in a physical close race all season.

AFC West - Oakland Raiders.  They take a step back this season as Lynch fails to generate a consistent rushing attack causing Carr to throw the ball way more than he should. Still good enough to win the division.

NFC East - New York Giants. That defense is still just as good and the Cowboys regress allowing the Giants a window. Their offensive line and rushing attack is still not good enough but those passing weapons and defense will carry them all season.

NFC North - Green Bay Packers. They still have Aaron Rodgers and the Pack take the division if the Lions are the only other competition.

NFC South - Carolina Panthers. This has more to do with the Falcons than it does the Panthers. Atlanta's passing attack regresses and the defense which allowed more than 25 points per game last year fails to improve. Carolina's rushing attack with a healthy Cam Newton and rookie of the year Christian McCaffery becomes a sight to see.

NFC West - Arizona Cardinals. The Cards win an ugly style of football led by physical defense and a power rushing attack.  The Seahawk's slide conti
nues as their offensive line fails to protect Wilson or generate any consistent rushing attack.

Wildcards
NFC - Dallas Cowboys.  Dak Prescott has another strong year but throws the ball more in his second season due to Zeke's suspension which causes an increase in turnovers. However the defense becomes the achilles heel and a tough schedule forces another early round exit.
NFC - Washington Redskins. Kirk Cousins puts together an entire season of quality play and they win the wildcard in week 17.

AFC - Houston Texans. Both the Titans and Texans are good teams but only one can win the division.
AFC - LA Chargers. There is turnover every year in the playoffs and I see the Chargers as the 2017 version of the Chiefs.

Super Bowl matchup:

Tennessee Titans vs Arizona Cardinals

The Titans win the championship behind a young QB, a tremendous offensive line and power rushing attack with an opportunistic defense.

Enjoy the season everyone.  I look forward to revisiting this in February.

Texas loses against Maryland - Morning After

The Tom Herman era begins the way Charlie Strong's ended.  A disappointing loss in front of the home fans.

Now that we have had a chance to let the initial frustration fade away, is there anything positive to take away from the season opener?

There isn't much to feel good about offensively.  Coaching and execution were poor to say the least.

This play call reminded me of the infamous Gregg Davis, Mack Brown's offensive coordinator while at Texas.  It is 4th and 5 and the primary read is only one yard downfield.  The probability of success is extremely low.

However I am willing to say that Texas might have a dynamic playmaker in Reggie Hemphill-Mapps. Texas has been beyond dreadful in the special teams return game but Reggie made a highlight reel play.  The redshirt freshman had to break a tackle and walk the tight rope along the sideline to take it the distance to keep Texas hopes alive.  Offensively he added 7 receptions and Herman needs to make sure he is on the field as much as possible to add a big play element to an offense that appears to be lacking one.

The underwhelming performance on offense starts with the line.  Coach Herman said just a week ago 4 of the starters on the line compared to the national championship squad at Ohio State.  But that is not who showed up yesterday.  Preseason All-American Connor Williams gave up several pressures and multiple holding penalties.  Veteran guard Patrick Vahe #77 failed to pick up stunts effectively giving up pressure even when Maryland brought only 3 defenders on the rush.

RG Jake McMillon and RT Tristian Nickelson weren't on the same page allowing a free blitzer to sack Buechele who was running for his most of the day.

Buechele was slow on his decision making, he held the ball too long when he did have time and did not show the accuracy that made Herman say "He's the most accurate guy I've coached."  Shane failed to properly read the defense and either did not or could not change the play.  Multiple times Texas ran right into blitzes that were telegraphed in pre snap or adjust the pass play to beat the defense.

True freshman Sam Ehlinger needs to be given an opportunity if Shane continues to struggle in his decision making and accuracy.

Defensively Texas will be okay.  They are built to attack passing offenses which are the norm in the Big 12.  The problem is they MUST be able to stop the run on early downs.  This will allow Texas to unleash their multiple explosive blitzers from different areas on the field.  Coordinator Todd Orlando flashed this package of 1 DL, 4 LBs and 6 DBs on 3rd downs early in the game before the score forced them to keep lineman on the field to try and stop the run.  It didn't work.

Malik Jefferson flashed early in the game but missed tackles and issues getting off blocks showed up again which has plagued him at Texas. Highly touted transfer Gary Johnson should see the field more often in place of Jefferson if that continues.

Jefferson #46 is in the middle of the defense and is responsible for the gap left of the center and fails to bring down the back in the hole leading to a big gain.

Sophomore Brandon Jones #19 struggled in secondary again which drew comparisons to his first collegiate start against Oklahoma State when he looked lost.  He allowed runners to get to the perimeter of the defense instead of forcing them back inside to his teammates.

This one lead to a score for Maryland.

On another occasion Jones appeared to jump an intermediate route in deep coverage and allow a receiver to get over the top for another score.  Jones is the most talented safety on the roster but he has a ways to go to become the player he's capable of.

The player of the game was Holton Hill with his 2 TDs and multiple strong tackles to get the defense off the field on 3rd down. He lost his confidence under Strong and Co. but is off to a good starter this year.  All of the corners need to improve their ability to locate the ball and make a play on it when in position.

Different coaching staff, same problems with special teams.  They started against Oklahoma State in 2016 and have continued now under Herman.  The left guard protector allows instant penetration at the snap leading to the block.

Next up, #4 ranked USC.

2017 NFL Draft - How Did The Cowboys Do?

The 2017 NFL Draft is a wrap.  It is time to break down who the Dallas Cowboys selected and how they fit into the team this season.

The Cowboys came into the draft needing help on defense wherever they could find it.  The priority was to upgrade the pass rush and then upgrade the secondary that lost four contributors in free agency.

Dallas addressed the pass rush in the opening round selecting Taco Charlton from Michigan.  He projects best to be a plus strong side edge rusher capable of getting 8 sacks per season.  I compared him to former Cowboy Greg Ellis.

You can find my article breaking down Charlton's game here. Where does Taco Charlton fit in Dallas.

They addressed their secondary in the second round selecting Chidobe Awuzie from Colorado.

Awuzie has a compact frame who is one of the most physical corners in the draft.  He is not afraid of contact nor mixing it up with receivers.  He is a good tackler which is rare for a corner, able to blitz when lined up in the slot and providing solid coverage.  He is comfortable playing on the line of scrimmage attacking the receiving or off the line in man coverage.  He will look to make a play on the ball but he is not a playmaker who gets turnovers though totaling just three INTs during his career.

I project Awuzie to be a starter at cornerback on the outside week one and could slide inside to play nickel on passing situations.  He was a weapon in college blitzing from the slot and causing impact plays behind the line of scrimmage. Defensive Coordinator Rod Marinelli would be wise to use him the same way in the NFL.

The Cowboys added another corner in the third round selecting Jourdan Lewis from Michigan.

Lewis is a smaller corner than Awuzie measuring just 5'10" and 188 pounds at the combine.  He has plenty of talent to be a starting corner in the NFL who is one of the best in the country knocking passes away from the receiver.  However he needs to improve his technique and keep his hands off the receiving downfield.

Below are some examples of what I mean.

Lewis is matched up against fellow third round pick Chris Godwin from Penn State at the bottom of the screen.  He is matched up right on the nose of Godwin, he tries to get his hands on him but Godwin just easily gets a clean release and open on a crossing route.

In the NFL, Lewis has got to become more physical and use better press technique when he needs to prevent a clean release for the receiver like that.  Remember the NFC East is home to some of the biggest and most physical receivers in the league.

He is again lined up on the nose of the receiver but allows a clean release to the inside on a go route.  The throw hangs in the air and allows him to recover to get his hand in there to prevent the catch. However if he prevents the clean release at the line, the QB doesn't even look his way. In the NFL, a receiver with a step is open for a QB and they can fit in the ball in that space.

I project Lewis to be the third corner on the depth chart able to line up on the inside and perhaps on the outside assuming he improves his technique.

Dallas went away from the defense and selected wide receiver from North Carolina Ryan Switzer in the fourth round.

Basically, Switzer is a Cole Beasley clone.  He measured just 5'8" and 181 at the combine which is just 7 pounds more than Beasley.

On film, the two are almost identical. Switzer is that quick slot receiver type who runs good routes, able to beat any defender in man coverage and has excellent hands. I like Switzer's long speed better as he was able to beat defenses up the seam and downfield with regularity in school.  However the reason he was drafted was his value as a punt returner with 7 career TDs in college.

Dak Prescott's ability to convert 3rd downs (10th best in the NFL) was partly due to Beasley being a consistent option in the middle of the field. Now they have another option that can beat any defender in man coverage underneath and return punts effectively.

Jerry Jones and Co. returned to the defensive side of the ball in the 6th round trading away their 2018 5th round pick to select Xavier Woods, safety from Louisiana Tech.  Dallas brought in Woods prior to the draft and reportedly would of been their selection had Switzer not been available in the 4th round.

Woods is a versatile safety who lined up all over the place at Louisiana Tech.  He has the size of a corner at 5'11" and 197 pounds but he was used in a variety roles.  He played down in the box as an extra run defender on early downs and then moving out to cover slot receivers on passing downs or trusted to man the middle of the field in obvious passing situations.

Bottom line, Xavier Woods is a playmaker at safety.  He caused fumbles (6), caught INTs (14) and returned 2 of them for scores during his college career.

He is not without flaws though, he lacks long speed and cannot be left in man coverage in the NFL against any receiver with speed. Receivers were able to get over the top of him too often on film and that will be exposed in the NFL. His lack of size presents challenges whether he can continue to cause impact plays in the box against the run. He isn't a polished tackler, he needs to break down better in space and bring down players without just diving for their feet.

I project Woods to compete for a starting job next to Byron Jones at safety by seasons end but at the very least, he will see plenty of snaps in nickel and dime defense at deep safety to patrol the middle of the field.  Keep in mind that Dallas likes to use Jones to eliminate the offenses best 3rd down receiving threat and Woods could allow them to be more aggressive on 3rd downs to get the opponent off the field.

Their next selection was Marquez White, cornerback from Florida State.  This is a classic example during the later stages of the draft, you ignore the flaws of a prospect and instead focus on what they can do.  Marquez White has good athleticism, fluid hips and able to transition from the backpedal to run downfield with ease. He can cover NFL receivers in man coverage next year.  But his technique is poor, he is not physical with receivers and that will be a problem in this division.  In addition, White simply wants nothing to do with run support, he is not aggressive in the least trying to bring down backs or receivers that aren't his man.  They might have something if he takes to coaching, improves that technique and becomes just an average tackler willing to support his teammates in bringing down the ballcarrier.

In the 7th round, Dallas took Joey Ivie (IV) from Florida who is a puzzling prospect.  Following the 2015 season, Ivie had the look of a top 100 selection who could play either tackle position with good quickness, strength and upside as a pass rusher.

This was week II of the 2015 season against East Carolina.  He wears #91.

However now he has lost all that athleticism and lacks the strength to make any plays in the NFL.  He was asked to gain weight at the cost of what made him a prospect following his junior season.

I think the kid needs to cut 20 pounds to get down to the 285 he played at as a junior to see if he can regain that athleticism and Dallas might have something here.  Its worth a shot.

Dallas returned to the wide receiver position selecting Noah Brown from Ohio State mid way through the 7th round.  Brown declared for the draft after his sophomore season leaving 2 years of eligibility on the table.  He should have returned to school to improve his draft stock but he is a big physical receiver who has some upside who can make plays on the underneath and intermediate routes.  He will struggle to create separation but he likes to make the difficult catch especially in the redzone.

With their final pick, Dallas returned to Colorado to add another defensive lineman, this time selecting Jordan Carrell.  He is a big bodied interior tackle who might flash as a run stuffing one technique but his film was unimpressive.  I did not see quickness, strength nor a capable bull rush to suggest he is a prospect.

Dallas' goal was to update the pass rush and their secondary.  I think they came away with 3 starters (Charlton, Awuzie, Lewis) and 2 key rotational players (Switzer and Woods).

Mission accomplished.

The Houston Texans select Carlos Watkins, DT, Clemson

Carlos Watkins, Clemson, #94

Game Film Evaluated:

Virginia Tech (2016)

Troy (2016)

Ohio State (2016)

Summary: Very powerful lineman, controls his gap with ease. Not overly quick or explosive, definitely not a 3 technique tackle. He can keep his feet moving toward the pocket and very strong hands. He is relentless in his pursuit to the ball and QB. He is able to knock lineman on their heels and work his way to the ball. He is not polished in his technique at all, very raw and has no feel for pass rush moves to getting off blocks. He is not overly explosive on tape who can burst off the snap. He finds a way to the QB and gets the job done despite lack of proper technique and consistent use of pass rush moves. 

Carlos Watkins is a solid prospect and will be a starter in the NFL but has a limited ceiling in my opinion. He can maintain his effective performance on the field with improved technique but the lack of quickness and burst off the line will limit the sacks at the next level. I project Watkins to a one technique in a penetrating scheme that wants upfield attackers as a late 2nd round player.

The Houston Texans select Julien Davenport, OT, Bucknell

Julien Davenport, Bucknell, #70

Game Film Evaluated:

VMI (2016)

Summary: Julien Davenport has the look of a professional tackle. He has good quickness and the potential footwork to play the position at the next level. He has a long way to go with technique, proper hand placement and keep the feet moving. He shows excellent ability to stick in pass protection, stay upright, doesn’t get caught reaching or bending at the waist. He has got to add more fire to his game, doesn’t block to the whistle and fairly limited effort in plays once it leaves his area. He can get to the next level and needs to keep the feet moving to round out his game. He will get a eye opening experience at the senior bowl but the ability is there, he will struggle on day one but the key is whether he improves throughout the week. If he does, I would most definitely take a flyer on him. 

Julien Davenport is a late round to priority free agent type prospect but he would jump into the 5th round depending on the amount of improvement he shows in Mobile.

The Dallas Cowboys select Ryan Switzer, WR, North Carolina

Ryan Switzer, North Carolina, #3

Game Film Evaluated:

Pittsburgh (2016)

Florida State (2016)

North Carolina State (2016)

Summary: Quick and fast slot receiver type. He can get in and out of breaks with top speed. He can make plays downfield and bust up the middle of a defense. He played exclusively out of the slot on the games observed. He has long speed and he can adjust to make the difficult catch. Very good hands who can haul it in away from his body. 

Ryan Switzer is a plus slot receiver prospect who can make plays underneath and also take advantage of defenders jumping his underneath stuff to bust the seams of a defense. He can recognize coverage and shows ability to run option routes. He is not physical in blocking nor someone who can handle defenders who try to muscle him off his routes. He only played in the slot in college but he might be able to line up on the outside and use his quickness to shake defenders. At worst he is a solid slot receiver who can make become a 3rd down machine to keep the chains moving. 4th round grade.

2017 NFL Draft - Best Available for Day III

Day III is the scouts day.

Anyone can have an opinion on the first round prospects and even guys taken on day II.  However all the hard work of the scouts is going to make or break a team's draft today.

Whether or not a team can withstand injuries will be determined today.

Whether or not a team will have to overpay other teams free agents to address depth issues will be determined today.

This is point in the draft when the reward exceeds the risk for every prospect.

It is all about what a player can do instead of worrying what they can't do.

Impact players at every position will be selected today, even the most rare gems of all, a QB as Dak Prescott proved last year.

It is on the scouts and general managers to find them.

Here are the players I think can be impact players in the NFL as day III selections.

You can find a QB who can start in the NFL and outperform guys taken in the first round.  Nathan Peterman from Pittsburgh doesn't have the elite arm but he has more than enough to make all the throws.  I think he would be a perfect successor for Drew Brees in New Orleans and starts in this league by year 3.

You can find starting RBs who bring speed and power to any teams backfield.  T.J. Logan from North Carolina, Jeremy McNichols from Boise State and Corey Clement from Wisconsin.

You can find a more than solid possession receiver to compliment a speedster in Isaiah Ford from Virginia Tech.  You can also find one of the most productive receivers in college last year in Chad Hansen from California.  A productive receiver with character concerns in Dede Westbrook at Oklahoma.  Every team looks for that super quick slot receiver and you can find Ryan Switzer from North Carolina.

Need a tight end, there are several to choose from.  Jordan Leggett from Clemson, Michael Roberts from Toledo and Jake Butt from Michigan.

Need a swing tackle who can play either position on game days?  Conor McDermott from UCLA.

There are lots of guards available who can start as rookies.  Isaac Asiata from Utah. Dorian Johnson from Pittsburgh, Jermaine Eluemunor from Texas A&M and Damien Mama from USC.

Need a pass rusher, there are a lot to choose from.  Carl Lawson from Auburn, Al-Quadin Muhammad formerly from Miami, Ejuan Price from Pittsburgh, Josh Caraway from TCU, Devonte Fields from Louisville and Joe Mathis from Washington.

The defensive tackle position has tons of talent available with Carlos Watkins from Clemson, Ryan Glasgow from Michigan, Jake Replogle from Purdue and Jaleel Johnson from Iowa.

There are three starting corners just sitting out there.  Howard Wilson from Houston who is a plus zone corner.  Both Damontae Kazee from San Diego State and William Likely from Maryland are amongst the best nickel corners in the draft and those guys play as much as anyone on defense.

There are four safeties who can challenge for a starting job this year.  Tedric Thompson from Colorado, Rayshawn Jenkins from the U, Jadar Johnson from Clemson and Desmond King who needs to convert from corner at Iowa.

That's over 30 prospects who can make an impact next year still available at every position.