A scouts perspective

A scouts perspective

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Why Notre Dame Could Not Stop The 18 Wheeler Package

The Texas Longhorns introduced the 18 wheeler package during the 2015 season to take advantage of Tyrone Swoopes' inside running ability and generate offense to remain competitive. The package remained a consistent threat to the end of the season despite the struggles in the rest of the offense.

The 18 wheeler package is not a ground breaking scheme, it has been around in some variation since the single wing based on the idea that defenses typically do not have to account for the quarterback.

Stopping the run consistently is built around the fundamental idea that the defense has one extra defender on every play to get to the ballcarrier. However this all changes when the quarterback becomes a dual threat as a runner and thrower.  It requires the defense to make a choice, add a defender to the box to account for the quarterback or depend on their defenders to beat a block and make the tackle.

This is the chess match that occurs throughout a football game, the offense looking to exploit a mismatch and the defense constantly looking to respond to their counter moves.

A successful rushing attack requires an offensive line that can handle the line of scrimmage and handle their assignments consistently. The package was built around a physical offensive line headlined by freshman Connor Williams and Patrick Vahe along with blocking tight end Caleb Blueitt. Add backs D’Onta Foreman and Chris Warren III to the equation along with Swoopes and the personnel is in place.

Notre Dame planned for the 18 wheeler package and was confident their front seven could handle it effectively without having to introduce an extra defender. Isaac Rochell (90) and Jerry Tillery (99) were the impact lineman counted on to defend it at the line of scrimmage. The Irish were more concerned about the deep pass attack against their fragile secondary.

Texas ran the 18 wheeler package 19 times (18 officially, 1 play resulted in a defensive penalty) for a total of 77 yards for an average of 4 yards per play.



Play No.
ND Defenders in Box
Texas Runner Number
Play Result
1
7
18
9 yard run
2
6
18
4 yard run
3
7
33
6 yard run
4
7
33
6 yard run
5
7
18
14 yard run
6
6
18
4 yard run
7
6
18
5 yard run
8
7
18
-1 yard run
9
7
33
3 yard run
10
8
33
3 yard run
11
7
18
Incomplete Pass
12
11
18
0 yard run
13
11
18
1 yard TD run
14
7
18
1 yard run
15
7
18
3 yard run
16
9
18
3 yard TD run
17
8
18
10 yard run
18
8
18
0 yard run
19
9
18
6 yard TD run

The 18 wheeler package made its 2016 debut in the second quarter at 12:26 from the Texas 12 yard line with the score tied at 7.

Swoopes makes the appropriate read as #24 is blitzing from the offenses' right side would blow up the handoff to Foreman. Lineman #76 Kent Perkins pulls from his right guard position and #55 Conner Williams gets to the second level to allow Swoopes a hole into the secondary. The Irish did not have the numbers nor were they able to defeat the blocks to make the play. Texas gain of 9 yards.

Nine plays later, Texas has moved the ball into Notre Dame territory down to the 37 yard line.  The Irish have held Swoopes and Co. to less than 3 yards only once and now they call in help.

Foreman's inside run goes for a 3 yard gain as the Irish stuff the box with 8 defenders. They have seen the offense drive for over 50 yards on the ground and their linemen unable to defeat blocks consistently. Your move Swoopes.

On the next play, Notre Dame opens with 7 in the box and a safety in the middle of the field.

The nickel back blitzes and other defenders are thinking run first. This means Swoopes has man coverage outside and a safety in the middle of the field. However John Burt is split wide to the left with a corner on his nose on a go route. Advantage Texas but Swoopes overthrows Burt and results in a missed scoring opportunity.

After two unsuccessful runs in the 3rd quarter, the package returns in overtime, score tied at 37. It is 3rd and goal from the 3 and Notre Dame shows 9 in the box.

Foreman goes to the right and takes 2 defenders with him which clears out the middle, poor read by #5 Nyles Morgan. Texas pulls #63 Alex Anderson and #47 Travis Beck runs a misdirection stepping to the right and then across the formation.  Both Anderson and Beck take out the same defender leaving #90 Rochell untouched but just a step slow to keep Swoopes out of the end zone. However Rochell shouldn't have gotten that close as either Anderson or Beck should of gotten a hat on him.

Notre Dame had the numbers to stop the play and the players in the right position.  It was set up for a 1 on 1 match up between #5 Morgan and Swoopes with a go ahead touchdown at stake. Instead Morgan takes a false step toward Foreman and is slow to locate the ball leaving Swoopes a path to the end zone. Touchdown Texas despite the numbers and play design suggesting it shouldn't have happened. Sometimes a player just has to make a play.

The game winning play in second overtime.  2nd and goal from the 6 yard line.

The Irish are all in to stop the run, a Texas touchdown wins the game.  Penetration is the goal for any defender when needing to stop the run for little to no gain.  Texas lost 2 starters on the right side of their offensive line earlier in the game when both right tackle #75 Tristan Nickelson and right guard Kent Perkins went down with leg injuries. Enter backups #63 Anderson and #58 Brandon Hodges both of whom were making their Longhorns debut. A miscommunication between the two results in #99 Jerry Tillery with a clean shot on Swoopes in the backfield. Notre Dame had the numbers to stop the play. Texas had the right play called to succeed despite the mismatch but the blocking assignments were not executed.

Sometimes the player just makes a play and that is exactly what the 18 wheeler package did.


Thursday, October 22, 2015

Decoding the Texans - Week 6 vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Data from Week _ Away vs _Jacksonville Jaguars______: 

Run-Pass
27-38
Avg Starting Field Position
Own 26
1st Down Run-Pass
19-10
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go
9
2nd Down Run-Pass
4-16
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go
7
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass
4-12
3rd Down Conversions
9-15

2015 Total through Week  6  .
Run-Pass
162-292
1st Down Run-Pass
90-109
2nd Down Run-Pass
55-94
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass
17-90
3rd Down Conversions
45-96 (47%)

Drive Starters – The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here – 

Wk 6 -   Away vs Jacksonville Jaguars Drives -   4  Run/ 5 Pass   44 % Run

2015 Total:    72  Drives - _28     Run/_44   Pass _39  % Run
2014 Total:  186  Drives - _100_ Run/_86_ Pass _54  % Run

* This statistic doesn’t count any 1-play kneel down drives.

Play Action Snaps – 15

Play-action had been the Texan’s calling card under Gary Kubiak and Matt Schaub thanks to the legs of Arian Foster.  The team continued to use playaction to generate big plays especially to DeAndre Hopkins in 2014.  The fact remains that this offense goes as far as their running game takes them with the continued question mark at quarterback. Here we will track those snaps.

Wk _6_ - _Away vs Jacksonville __: 15/135 yards_ _9.0   avg yards/play action pass
Wk _5_ - _Home vs Colts ___   : _7/91   yards_ _13.0 avg yards/play action pass
Wk _4_ - _Away vs Falcons___   : _9/95   yards_ _10.5 avg yards/play action pass 
Wk _3_ - _Home vs Tampa Bay___: _6/93   yards_ _15.5 avg yards/play action pass
Wk _2_ - _Away vs Panthers___   : _6/23   yards_ _3.8   avg yards/play action pass
Wk _1_ - _Home vs KC Chiefs___  : _8/81   yards_ _10.1 avg yards/play action pass

2015 Season Total: _51/518 yards_ _10.2 avg yards/play action pass
2014 Season Total: _92/676 yards_ _7.3   avg yards/play action pass

Shotgun Snaps – 19

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Texans aren’t getting too lazy in using it. The NFL run/pass split across the league is 15%/85% and most teams rarely run out of the shotgun with any time of consistent success. Bill O’Brien is showing a tendency to be in shotgun a lot and run the ball out of it, a lot.  The Texans consistently split the running back out wide when in shotgun I assume wanting to exploit a matchup on the perimeter. It remains to be seen whether they have the personnel to do it but thats a separate issue.

Wk _6_   - _Away vs Jacksonville  : _19/65  _ 29.2_%
Wk _5_   - _Home vs Colts___ : _33/72  _ 45.8_%
Wk _4_   - _Away vs Falcons___ : _52/75  _ 69.3_%
Wk _3_   - _Home vs Tampa Bay_: _36/86   _41.9_%
Wk _2_   - _Away vs Panthers___ : _58/84_ _69.0_% 
Wk _1_   - _Home vs KC Chiefs__: _44/73_ _60.3_%

2015 Season Total: _242/455  _ _ 53.2_% 
2014 Season Total: _543/1,058_ _51.3_%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Package
Plays Run
Yards
Avg/Play
Run
Pass
10
8
38
4.8
4
4
11
13
124
9.5
6
7
12
6
33
5.5
4
2
13
0
0
0.0
0
0
20
0
0
0.0
0
0
21
8
22
2.8
3
5
22
10
31
3.1
8
2
23
1
2
2.0
1
0
S00
0
0
0.0
0
0
S02
0
0
0.0
0
0
S10
4
5
1.3
0
4
S11
14
129
9.2
1
13
S12
1
11
11.0
0
1
S21
0
0
0.0
0
0
Totals
65
395
6.1
27
38


* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

2015 Season to Date Totals through Week _6___.
Package
Plays Run
Yards
Avg/Play
Run
Pass
10
21
96
4.6
8
13
11
92
636
6.9
58
34
12
38
231
6.1
21
17
13
4
11
2.8
4
0
20
2
-3
-1.5
1
1
21
27
80
3.0
17
10
22
23
81
3.5
20
3
23
5
7
1.4
5
0
S00
0
0
0.0
0
0
S02
4
60
15.0
0
4
S10
20
80
4.0
1
19
S11
206
1,058
5.1
26
180
S12
9
51
5.7
1
8
S21
3
6
2.0
0
3
Totals
454
2394
5.3
162
292

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:
Package
Plays
Yards
Avg/Play
Run
Pass
FD/TD
10
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
11
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
12
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
20
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
21
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
22
4
6
1.5
3
0
2
23
1
2
2.0
1
0
1
S00
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
S02
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
S10
3
5
1.7
0
3
1
S11
8
90
11.3
0
8
6
S12
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
S21
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
Totals
16
103
6.4
4
11
10

2015 Season to Date Totals on 3rd/4th Down through Week _5__.
Package
Plays
Yards
Avg/Play
Run
Pass
FD/TD
10
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
11
1
0
0.0
1
0
0
12
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
13
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
20
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
21
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
22
6
9
1.5
5
0
3
23
3
6
2.0
3
0
2
S00
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
S02
3
60
20.0
0
3
2
S10
9
53
5.9
0
9
5
S11
84
404
4.8
8
76
34
S12
1
1
1.0
0
1
0
S21
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
Totals
107
533
5.0
17
89
46

Splash Plays

Let’s take a look at the “Splash Plays” from Week _6_ vs the _Jacksonville Jaguars_:

Splash Plays are key impact plays from the defense. Usually, they are obvious, but there are some that blur the line. I have listed time and play of each one for those who want to double check my work.

For more, read a detailed explanation of this study here: What is a splash play?

Week _6_ vs _Jacksonville Jaguars____
Q-Time
D/D/Yd
Player
Play
4-6:21
1/10/O29
24
PBU
1-11:50
3/3/O42
25
TKL SHORT FD
4-8:02
1/10/O26
29
INT TD
2-0:17
2/2/H10
29
INT
2-11:36
1/10/H15
30
PBU
4-1:09
3/10/H28
34
INT
4-4:43
3/1/O11
34
PBU
4-2:00
3/2/H32
51
QB SACK
4-5:19
1/1/O1
59
TFL
2-5:27
1/10/O31
59
QB RUSH
2-15:00
1/10/H38
59
QB SACK
4-1:17
1/10/H28
59
QB RUSH
2-3:18
2/6/O47
92
QB RUSH
3-15:00
1/10/O25
99
TFNG
4-7:13
1/10/O36
99
QB RUSH
2-0:49
1/10/H37
99
QB RUSH
4-10:11
3/3/O27
99
O. HOLDING
3-6:30
3/7/O39
99
PBU
3-13:30
3/4/O31
51,99
QB RUSH

Here are the season totals for _2015___:
Player
Name
Splashes
99
J.J. Watt
27.5
90
Jadeveon Clowney
9.0
59
Whitney Mercilus
8.5
56
Brian Cushing
8.0
24
Jonathan Joseph
7.0
30
Kevin Johnson
6.0
93
Jared Crick
3.0
57
Justin Tuggle
3.0
55
Benardrick McKinney
3.0
25
Kareem Jackson
3.0
51
John Simon
3.0
75
Vince Wilfork
2.5
95
Christian Covington
2.5
26
Rahim Moore
2.0
34
A.J. Bouye
2.0
29
Andre Hall
2.0
27
Quintin Demps
1.5
92
Brandon Dunn
1.0
35
Eddie Pleasant
0.5

Here are the season totals for _2014___: _328 .
Player
Name
Splashes
99
JJ Watt
99.0
59
Whitney Mercilus
30.0
58
Brooks Reed
22.0
36
D.J. Swearinger
19.0
93
Jared Crick
19.5
56
Brian Cushing
14.0
25
Kareem Jackson
14.0
21
Kendrick Lewis
13.5
24
Johnathan Joseph
13.0
34
A.J. Bouye
13.0
54
Mike Mohamed 
11.0
50
Akeem Dent
9.5
26
Darryl Morris
8.0
57
Justin Tuggle
7.5
96
Tim Jamison
6.5
51
John Simon
5.5
20
Jumal Rolle
5.0
94
Ryan Pickett
5.0
29
Andre Hall
3.0
95
Jerrell Powe
3.0
38
Danieal Manning
3.0
90
Jadeveon Clowney
2.0
97
Jeoffrey Pagan
1.0
35
Eddie Pleasant
1.0


Blitzing Report

Romeo Crennel has been around the NFL for over 30 years with the past 12 spent as either a head coach or a defensive coordinator.  He is known for being an aggressive coordinator who isn’t afraid to blitz and blitz often.  He is not going to stand back and play coverage on most 3rd downs, he will bring the heat and force the issue on the QB.  We will first track opposing plays of 20 yards or more.

Opposing Big Plays

Q-Time
D/D/Yd
Play
Rushers
4-3:30
1/10/O20
29 YD PASS
4
3-0:10
3/9/H39
29 YD TD PASS
5
1-13:24
1/10/O10
25 YD PASS
4
3-1:37
1/10/O48
22 YD PASS
4
1-1:27
2/10/O25
21 YD PASS
4
4-6:46
1/10/H49
20 YD PASS
4

Defensive Big Play(s)

Q-Time
D/D/Yd
Play
Rushers
4-2:00
3/2/H32
QB SACK
4
2-15:00
1/10/H38
QB SACK
4
4-8:02
1/10/O26
INT FOR TD
4
2-0:17
2/2/H10
INT
3
4-1:09
3/10/H28
INT
4

Pass Rushers Against _Jacksonville Jaguars_______ -   60 pass rush/blitz situations:

Pass Rushers
1st D
2nd D
3rd D
4th D
Total
2 Rush
0
0
0
0
0
3 Rush
2
4
4
0
10
4 Rush
19
10
6
2
37
5 Rush
3
4
5
0
12
6 Rush
0
0
1
0
1
7 Rush
0
0
0
0
0
8 Rush
0
0
0
0
0

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers
1st D
2nd D
3rd D
4th D
Total
2 Rush
0
0
0
0
0
3 Rush
5
11
13
0
29
4 Rush
46
35
27
2
110
5 Rush
30
32
28
1
91
6 Rush
8
3
3
0
14
7 Rush
0
0
1
0
1
8 Rush
0
0
0
0
0

And, here are the 2014 Season Totals:   268  /686  -   39.1 %
Pass Rushers
1st D
2nd D
3rd D
4th D
Total
2 Rush
0
0
1
0
1
3 Rush
11
14
19
2
46
4 Rush
154
134
77
4
369
5 Rush
54
66
43
2
165
6 Rush
20
19
39
2
80
7 Rush
7
5
7
2
21
8 Rush
0
1
1
0
2

The game by game pressure numbers:

Wk 6   -   Jacksonville :   13 /  60  -   21.7 %
Wk 5   -   Indianapolis Colts :   12 /  29  -   41.4
Wk 4   -   Atlanta Falcons :   16 /  29  -   55.2 %
Wk 3   -   Tampa Bay Bucs :   15 /  37  -   40.5 %
Wk 2   -   Carolina Panthers :   24 /  41  -   58.5
Wk 1   -   KC Chiefs :   26 /  49  -   53.1 %

Totals:106 /  245 -   43.3 %