Prospect Report on #5 starting pitcher Nick Tepesch

Prospect Report on #5 starting pitcher Nick Tepesch
- Size is 6-4, 225. Drafted in the 14th round out of Missouri.
Pros: Durability and knack for throwing four pitches for strikes, reading swings and locating the ball down in the zone consistently. Fastball has late sinking action.
Cons: Does not have overpowing stuff, fastball touches 91-92 MPH.
Pitches:
Plus pitches
Fastball 91-92 mph with late sinking action
High 70s curveball
High 80s cutter
Average
Diving changeup
Two plane slider

Minor League stats
2011 - Low class A        138 IP        147 H        14 HR        33 BB        118 Ks
2012 - High class A         72 IP         68  H          3 HR         18 BB         59  Ks
         - AA                           90 IP         97  H        10 HR        26 BB          68 Ks

Stars trade the Captain

So the Stars make their second trade during the 2013 season trading the Captain Brendon Morrow to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

My first question is does this signal the team is a seller or a buyer at the deadline?  I still don't know the answer to that.  Here is why...

I see this trade as an upgrade to the defense core as the trade netted Penguins prospect Joe Morrow, the 23rd overall pick of the 2011 draft.

My first impression reading up on the newly acquired Morrow is he is an offensive defenseman who is close to ready to contribute at the NHL level, isn't that what we thought we got in Alex Goligoski?  The difference here is you gave up a old, gritty, tough defensive winger in the last year of his contract versus a young, goal scoring power winger with several years of contract protection in James Neal.

The Stars got far better equal value in this trade than they did in Ryder for Cole they did a month ago.  However I feel they filled the hole left by Morrow in the Cole trade, gave them the net presence on the top 2 lines who gives better scoring threat, size and several years already under contract.

Onto the new Morrow in Dallas, here is what we know about him.

Joe Morrow is a 20-year old offensive defenseman who was drafted 23rd overall in 2011 draft.  He stands 6-1 and 204 pounds and here's what Hockey Future's report on Morrow says:

"A mobile and aggressive two-way defenseman who can play in all situations, Joe Morrow has seen his stock rise meteorically since his draft year in 2010-11. Playing with poise and maturity far beyond his years, Morrow possesses the ability to retrieve the puck from his own zone and start the play up ice. His puck-distribution ability is top notch and he has a hard and heavy shot that typically hits the net. He also owns a high hockey IQ and does an excellent job of keeping his head up when moving the puck up ice and carrying it along the blue line."

Here is what I don't like about the deal.  Morrow is a left shot, this team is full of left shots with only Stephane Robidas as the only right handed shot on the roster. I would of liked the team to find a player who can bring some balance. The only other thing I don't like doesn't have anything to do with Joe Morrow, it has to do with the Stars trading away 2 top 6 NHL wingers and not coming away with any top line scorers or young centers to build on.

How to shop when you have no money and don't take credit cards?

Free Agency is all about overpaying for players with experience versus filling needs with younger, cheaper players who haven't done it via the draft.

The goal is to build the roster via the draft and fill those few holes in free agency to take your team to the next level.  Obviously Jerry missed that lesson but no point getting into that mess as it does us no good.

So how can you fill holes when you don't have much money to work with and a aging roster.  The answer is not through free agency!

The Cowboys should stay out of the free agency market this year, target role players with a lot of one year deals. Sign older players who were not resigned or released from their previous employers due to their age, not necessarily their play.

Then they need to build through the draft and play all the young players who you need to find out what you have.

So who are the veterans who can be those older or role players who would be willing to come here to Dallas on a one-year deal.  Well, first question to ask yourself is why would a free agency want to go anywhere on a one-year deal.  The answer is someone coming off a subpar year, injuries and looking to hit it big the next year.  A lot like former Cowboy & Seahawk Ken Hamlin and the plan worked perfectly for both parties until his play no longer warranted the compensation given.

Onto the potential targets, be prepared for a short and unimpressive list as cheap and one-year deals being on the must have list.

#1 Israel Idonije, DE from the Chicago Bears
Why he's available?
He's 33 years old and not a speed terror rusher in the mold of Aldon Smith or Von Miller. His best football is obviously behind him and teams are hesitant signing players over the age of 30 to multi-year deals especially lineman.

Why you should want him?
What if I told you Idonije had more sacks and QB pressures than recently franchised Henry Melton?  He had 9 sacks and 37 QB pressues playing over 500 snaps in 2012.  That is a durable and highly productive player at any age.  Is he a player I want to depend on as a full-time starter, probably not but depth along the defensive line is ALWAYS a good thing.  The guy is holding out to after the draft to get a 2 or 3 year deal in the area of 3 million a year for any team that did not address pass rusher in the draft.  I would cut Doug Free in a second and target Idonije to get better up front.

#2 Kellen Davis, TE also from the Bears
Why he's available?
As Idonije fell into the category of age being the primary factor he's available, Davis is there as he's coming off a subpar year. He had just 19 receptions for 229 yards getting only 2 TDs from Jay Cutler. He's never been a big receiving threat but his run blocking took a big hit as did the rest of the team in 2012. Fact is if your not a receiving threat from the tight end position and you did not open up holes for the back on the edge, interest will be low in free agency.

Why you should want him?
John Phillips has signed with Tampa Bay leaving a hole for the blocking tight end in Dallas. I do believe this job should be opened up for James Hannah to have every opportunity to take and show us what he can do. However the team will carry 3 tight ends on the roster and a blocking tight end will be necessary which is why I mention Davis here.  In 2011, Davis had a 4.9 run blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus and hopes would be for him to return to that form in 2013 in Dallas.

#3 Laurent Robinson, WR of the Jaguars
Why he's available?
The Jaguars signed Robinson in 2012 to a 5-year for 32.5 million but released him after just one season taking a 9 million cap hit to do it. Robinson has always been a injury concern dating back to his days with the Rams and Chargers. He had major issues with concussions during his time in Jacksonville and even considered retirement at one time due to the injuries. The Jaguars drafted Justin Blackmon out of Oklahoma State and made the decision to part ways with Robinson as no faith he can recover from the injuries and be a regular contributor at the price they paid.

Why you should want him?
Did you watch #81 for the Cowboys during the 2011 season?  Enough said...but the Cowboys need a receiver who can get open on the outside, Miles Austin & Dwayne Harris cannot do it consistently. This team has too many slot receiver options and not enough guys who can make things happen on the perimeter. The instant chemistry Robinson built up with Romo cannot be under estimated especially considering how difficult its been for receivers to click quickly with Romo (Dez, Roy Williams and Ogletree).

Do Not Draft Prospect: Justin Pugh, Syracuse

As the Draft season gets fully underway with the combine going on this week, I'll be talking about prospects I want Dallas to target.  Along the same lines, there will be prospects I want nothing to do with it for numerous reasons, character, motor, don't fit in the scheme or just players I don't think are good players.

First edition of this segment brings up offensive lineman Justin Pugh from Syracuse.  He has experience having started 4 years after redshirting but the best this guy could be is a backup or practice squad guy in Dallas.

He has the second worst combination for any offensive lineman prospect, very short arms and not very strong. He measured in at the combine with just 32" arm length and he plays like a guy who struggles to keep rushers off his body as well. Then factor in the fact he's not a mauler by any means nor has the leg drive to get a push in the running game.

He does move very well, get the second level often but at best, Pugh projects as a left guard in a zone blocking scheme only. With that said, guards have to play with power throughout the course of a game and Pugh will struggle at the NFL level handling tackles with strength.

As a hardcore Cowboys fan, I can see two reasons why Dallas would have interest in Pugh. One, they like guys with lots of starting experience just like any organization, more experience presents more evidence so scouts can feel better about their analysis of what a player can/can't do. Second, Dallas has had a awful run of developing offensive lineman not named Tyron Smith. They have drafted guys who had obvious flaws in college, never improved at Valley Ranch and then gone.

Their track record at picking offensive lineman is about as bad as it gets so I don't have much faith in them being able to sort out the bad from the good prospects. But I am confident to say that Justin Pugh is one to pass on by on draft day, if he works out with someone else, great and good for him.

Dallas Cowboys Draft Target: Cornellius "Tank" Carradine, Florida State

Cornellius Carradine
Florida State

2013 Combine Measurables:
Height:  6'4"
Weight:  276 lbs
Arm Length: 34 3/4"
Hand Size: 10 1/4"

I've spent most of the day studying Florida State DE Cornellius Carradine, extremely talented but inexperienced pass rusher. He only started one year at Florida State after transferring from a junior college.

He did not start as a junior simply due to the fact that Florida State had two first round prospects ahead of him on the depth chart. He's got the frame, arm length and hand size needed to be a very good NFL rusher. He tore his ACL against Florida during his senior year and will need to be checked medically this week at the combine. That will greatly decide his draft stock but based upon potential and the limited but positive production puts him as a early 2nd round prospect. However teams in the top of round 2 won't want a player who most likely won't be able to help them in year 1 so that could bump him into the middle of round two. Cowboy fans may frown on the pick for the same reason but Bruce Carter worked out pretty well didn't he under similar circumstances?

I think he will be on the Cowboys radar as Carradine has the non stop motor every cowboy drafted under Jason Garrett has to have. Second, obviously he's a need position and a sure fire first round pick had he not gotten hurt. He wore 91 at Florida State and draws favorable comparisons to former Notre Dame player Justin Tuck.

I watched five of his games, best effort was easily vs Duke. Florida State destroyed Duke and Carradine was just a terror all day. The LT for Duke had no business being on the field with him. That game film is not a accurate reflection of Carradine but it show you what he is capable of.


The worst film is probably vs Florida or South Florida. The competition was better vs Florida and USF ran the ball far more right at him. I was surprised how well Carradine holds his own at the POA but he struggles to shed blocks. I was also surprised how well he can get inside a tackle on the rush, shoots the gap and draws a lot of holding calls or inside penetration to force the QB to move out of the pocket.

I noticed he struggles with counter moves, too be expected considering the lack of experience and when he gets tired, he will let blockers get into his body and he is easily contained. He takes poor angles which again I am not surprised about, the effort and athleticism is there. The more football this kid plays, the less of an issue I think that will be and he makes a lot of tackles anyway, that will go up once he reads those angles better.

He is not polished by any means nor is he as talented as Werner at FSU but confident with the effort and tools Carradine has to work with. He may not be a premier pass rusher but profiles to me as a 6-8 sack/yr guy while also being a equally strong defender vs the run on the strongisde in a 4-3.
 

Cowboys cap situation and cuts

Free - $9,060,000
Penalty - $6,180,000
Net Gain: 2,880,000

So bottom line if you cut Free & Ratliff only save $3,880,000

Dan Connor - $4,350,000
Penalty - $1,350,000
Net Gain - $3,000,000

Gerald Sensabaugh - $3,750,000
Penalty - $2,250,000
Net Gain - $1,500,000

Marcus Spears - $2,700,000
Penalty - $2,100,000
Net Gain - $600k

Miles Austin - $8,302,000
Penalty - $4,710,000
Net Gain - $3,592,000

Even if you made all these cuts would clear: $12,572,000.

Also would mean you would have $16,590,000 in dead money on 2013 cap.

Sports Corner SHow Notes 1/13/12

Cowboys fire Rob Ryan, hire former Bucs DC Monte Kiffin, 4-3 defense comes back to Dallas.

-          Reason for Ryan firing: Jerry said the defenses performance against the Seahawks and Bears were primary reasons for his dismissal. (The offense and special teams unit turned the ball over 8 times in those 2 games).

-          This move was all Jerry, confirms Jason Garrett is a puppet head coach just as we all suspected all along.

-          Defense moves to 4-3 scheme but more importantly the cover 2 scheme. This puts less a priority on corners in coverage (yr after you traded 2^nd round pick and $50 million for Carr & Claiborne). Puts more coverage responsibilities on the safeties. Also, the corners have to be better run defenders. Neither of which is their forte.

o       Huge questions along Dline, you have DWare but that’s it. Spencer is free agent, cost $8 million a yr over 4-5 yrs. Can’t depend that Jay Ratliff will be impact player with his recent history (durability and declining play prior to that).

-          Team should admit mistakes and pay the financial price for it.

o       Miles Austin, Jay Ratliff, Doug Free, Gerald Sensabaugh, Marcus Spears, Dan Connor need to go. Problem is they will not admit those mistakes since they have no alternative due to constant misses in draft.

Mavericks win two in a row!

-          Beat the Memphis Grizzlies 104 – 83. Key was a tough defensive performance, held the Grizzlies to 39 points in the first half, by far their best performance defensively to date. Other key point is Mavs had six players score double digits vs a team that ranked 2^nd in NBA in scoring defense.

o       Record is now 15-23.

-          Despite Mavericks poor start to the season, Cuban said he has no plans to trade Dirk.

The NHL lockout is officially over and there will be hockey this year.

-          First order of business for Stars will be to lock up Jamie Benn to a new contract. Team wants to sign him to a 3 yr deal for about $6 million a yr. Benn wants a 5-6 yr deal that takes him right to unrestricted free agency to hit a well deserved big payday.

-          Stars first game is Saturday, January 19^th vs the Phoenix Coyotes.

o       Team will not be a overly physical team especially defensively, think will have a hard time holding onto leads.

o       The powerplay should be drastically improved adding capable scorers in the top 6.

o       The lockout shorterned season should help the old vets of Ray Whitney & Jaromir Jagr make a consistent impact this season.

Rangers sign DH Lance Berkman

-          Signed him to one year $11 million deal with a club option for a second year.

o       He will be the switch hitting bat to help give protection to the top half of the lineup. Washington has already said he will hit 3^rd.

o       Berkman will work pitchers and not be the easy out (first pitch swinging) that plagued Josh Hamilton, Mike Young and even Ian Kinsler.

o       Durability is a concern after he played only 32 games in 2012 but team is banking on a performance of 130 games, 30 homers with 90 plus RBIs hitting around .290

o       I really like the signing as gives Rangers a tough out in the lineup and if the team gets off to a poor start or even out of the running for a playoff spot. This along with other veterans a valuable trade piece to send elsewhere and get good prospects in return.