The 2015 Dallas Stars Offseason Outlook: Part 2 of 3

Here is a three part series over the next week to detail the Dallas Stars Outlook heading into the offseason.  I have identified three priorities Jim Nill and Co. need to solidify prior to next season.

1. Acquire Top D Man
2. Acquire a Goalie that can push Kari Lehtonen for the starting job.
3. Acquire a defensive first winger in the top 6 and replace the player Rich Peverley.

You can read the first part of the series where I identified how the Stars can acquire a Top D Man here.

Here I will tackle Priority Two: Acquire a Goalie that can push Kari Lehtonen for the starting job.

The Stars 2014-15 season was defined by tremendous scoring, defensive lapses and sub standard goaltending.

One can argue they are all connected, a team that focused on scoring by definition puts their defense at a disadvantage and a goalie will always struggle if he doesn’t have solid defense in front of him.

This is true but a upper echelon goalie must be able to bail out his team and make that save over the course of a game to keep his team in it.  The goalie needs to be your number one star at times and the best player on the ice.

This was not the case for Kari Lehtonon during the 2014-15 season which is why adding a net minder who can push him not just for a spot start on the second night of a back to back but for his starting job.

The type of goalie needed is a relative young guy in his mid 20s who has played a few seasons in the NHL with successful stretches in net.  They also look for big guys who stand over 6-2 as well.

Here are the top 3 targets available on the free agent market who fit the profile.

1. Karri Ramo from the Calgary Flames.  He is 28 and stands 6-2, weighing 215 and performed very well in the NHL. He was 15-8-3 with 2 shutouts last season with a 2.54 GAA and .913 save %.  He served as the backup in Calgary but was paid $2.75 million for his services and undoubtedly will want a shot at a starting job.
2. Jake Allen from the St. Louis Blues.  He is a supremely talented youngster at age 24 standing 6-2. He enters the offseason as a restricted free agent and a team can sign him to an offer sheet and make the Blues not be able to afford his services especially with a higher paid goalie already on the team in Brian Elliott. Allen had a 2.28 GAA and a .913 save %, both better than Lehtonen.
3. Martin Jones from the LA Kings. Another restricted free agent who will require an offer sheet and put the Kings in a difficult decision to match. However the player Martin is the ideal candidate, stands 6-4, age 25 and has 34 NHL games under his belt. He was most impressive in 2013-14 with a 1.81 GAA but has 7 career shutouts which is impressive.

The Stars still have Jack Campbell playing with the Texas Stars in the AHL who finished the season strong after an extremely rocky start. He will enter camp trying to make the NHL roster again and would the Stars preference to push Kari for time but the team can’t take the chance not adding more competition in net going into next season.

Kari Lehtonen had a 2.94 GAA and .903 save % in 2014-15 which was his worst as a Dallas Star and career worst since his rookie season in Atlanta in 2008-09.  Even worse was his 3.02 GAA at home and dreadful .898 save % at home. 

No team makes it into the playoffs without strong play in net and the Stars missed out on the playoffs primarily due to the performance on their netminders which cannot continue.

Regardless if the starter is Lehtonen next season or a newcomer, Nill has to give Lindy Ruff a quality option which he did have. The Stars went almost a full calendar year between wins from their backup goalie when they started the game.

They can’t have that kind of performance from their starter nor their backup, it has to change next season.

The 2015 Dallas Stars Offseason Outlook: Part 1/3

Here is Part 1 of a three part series over the next week to detail the Stars Outlook heading into the offseason.  I have identified three priorities Jim Nill and Co. need to solidify prior to next season.

1. Acquire Top D Man

2. Acquire a Goalie that can push Kari Lehtonen for the starting job.

3. Acquire a defensive first winger who can play in the top 6 and replace the player Rich Peverely.

Here I will tackle Priority One: Acquire Top D Man

The Stars are in luck, there are a few top defensive men available in free agency and on the trade market.  On top of that, the franchise is in great shape with their salary cap to add a top player. This is due to the extreme bargain the Stars have in Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin. 

Target is Johnny Boychuk from Islanders, Andrej Sekera from Carolina Hurricanes. Next option is Christian Ehrhoff from Penguins. None are goal scorers but are big presence and possession guys who can hold their own in zone. Brent Searbrook via trade is an option from the Blackhawks who will need salary cap relief and have to make a tough decision on veteran needing to move.

The Dallas Stars have the makings of a deep and talented defensive group but are weak at the top. They have banked on having puck moving undersized D men who can beat the forecheck and use proper positioning to be an adequate defender. However every team needs a big bully who can clear the net, block shots, rough up the opponent, be a capable skater who isn’t a liability with the puck on his stick. The Stars have potentially one in Patrik Nemeth but need another, preferably an established veteran Lindy Ruff can match up against opposing top lines and on the penalty kill.  The Stars locked up Jon Klingberg to a long-term deal after his stellar rookie season with hopes of pairing him with said veteran on the top line. Since Klingberg is a right handed shot, GM Jim Nill will be on the lookout for a left handed shot if the plan is to match up with the youngster.

Here is what is available on the free agent market which undoubtedly will be the most expensive avenue to acquire in terms of money.

1. Cody Franson, Toronto Maple Leafs - A top D man, not elite but a very good top pairing D man who will be a scoring force especially on the power play.  He’s big at 6-5 and 213 lbs, young at age 27 and a right handed shot. The list of teams wanting Franson will form to the left and his salary will likely exceed $7 million annually.
2. Andrej Sekera, Carolina Hurricanes - The top two-way defensive man on the free agent market, he’s still young at 28 years old and has produced against top competition on a nightly basis with positive possession numbers. Sekera played for Ruff in Buffalo and the Stars will know him better than any other team outside of those who played with him last year. Andrej is not as big, standing only 6-0 and weighing 200 lbs and is a left handed shot. However Sekera is that veteran presence who knows the scheme, has produced for years in the NHL, can skate, defend and move the puck without problem.

There are others who are available on the market but these would be my targets heading into free agency as they fit the profile; veteran, physical, capable skater and not a puck moving liability.

Obviously Cody Franson is going to cost a ton and the Stars likelihood of seriously pursuing him is low, Nill has been masterful structuring the salary cap and can’t see him throwing it out the window for one player, even Cody Franson. Andrej Sekera is the most likely target, familiarity with Ruff, see himself as a missing piece to a contender and like the scheme that favors skating over size.

If Nill cannot strike on plan A, some alternative free agent options would be Matt Irwin from the Sharks, Johnny Oduya from Chicago or the ever teasing Jeff Petry from the Canadiens. None of those project to be a confident top pairing D man nor would they be a significant upgrade over the top 6 Dallas has currently on the roster.

The trade market is going to be the best place for the Stars to find their missing piece on defense.  First you must ask yourself, every team could use help on defense, why would they be willing to part with a top pairing D man?  You can ask the same question to Boston when trying to figure out how the Stars came away with a young stud offensive weapon in Tyler Seguin. The answer is find a team that is facing a salary cap crunch this offseason and has significant defensive top depth.

Enter the Chicago Blackhawks 2015 Salary Cap outlook.  Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will cost $21 million combined in 2015 with $65 million currently on the books to a team that only has 4 defensive men on the roster. The 2014 salary cap was $69 million and is projected to stay the same or even decrease a little.

The Blackhawks D pairings in their conference final match with the Anaheim Ducks had Duncan Keith and Niklas Hjalmarsson as their top pair both making less next season than Brent Seabrook will in 2015 at $5.8 million.

This means there is an opportunity for the Stars to make a move.  What would it take?

The Blackhawks aren’t stupid, they will need a veteran who can play on their 2nd pair at a fraction of Seabrooks cost and a NHL ready prospect. Alex Goligoski will count $4.6 million in 2015 while Trevor Daley is at $3.3 million for two more seasons. Let the Hawks take their pick of Goligoski or Daley although I would rather they take Daley and add in Jamie Oleskiak as the NHL ready prospect.

Brent Seabrook instantly becomes the Stars best defensive man as a veteran, physical, right handed shooter who is an underrated scorer. He would be entering the final year of his contract which is a steep price to pay but consider that Goligoski is also entering his final year, Daley appeared lost in his own zone last year but had a career year in the goal tally. Oleskiak has the most potential of the Stars D prospects but consider how many prospects have jumped ahead of Big Rig the past two seasons, Nemeth, Klingberg, Jokipakka and Brendon Dillon while we still wait for him to show up. It might still happen but should you try and capitalize on his value to add a top D man to take advantage of the team you have now?

I say absolutely.