A scouts perspective

A scouts perspective

Saturday, April 27, 2013

Jerry says got value...

Travis Frederick was ranked 87, taken pick #31.  Thats a loss of 56 slots meaning took the guy almost 2 rounds ahead of where he was ranked.

Gavin Escobar, ranked # 84.  Taken at 47 representating another loss of 37.  A full round ahead of where thought he should go.

Terrence Williams ranked #93, taken at 74, loss of 19 slots so again almost a full round ahead.

Then finally with their last pick in 3rd round, take JJ Wilcox at pick # 80 who was ranked #51. They got their only gain pick of 29 slots so getting him a round later than expected.

Jerry Jones  says the team had Frederick, Escobar & Williams all rated in their 20s overall on the board. He believes received tremendous value, I disagree.  He did not receive great value, he reached consistently throughout the draft ignoring value at need positions like DL.

If he really wanted value, he should of stayed at 18, taken the tight end Tyler Eifert from Notre Dame and still gotten your center Frederick in the second round. I firmly believe he would of been there and presented far better value!

Question for you

Question...How many games did we lose last year because we didn't have a receiving threat at backup tight end?

Another question...How many games did we lose last year because we didn't have a non-quick out of his breaks big receiver who can't get off press coverage with occassional drops  not be able to contribute as the Number 4 receiver?

How many games did we lose because we have a very inexperienced but extremely athletic raw safety with only one year of starting experience who is unlikely to jump right in at start at NFL level in year one?

How many games did we lose because we had a non dominating physical open up rushing lanes interior offensive line for DeMarco Murray?

Then why the hell did we draft 4 guys who wouldnt have changed our record from last year one bit!!!

Sorry guys, be honest about your team.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Best Available and Cowboys Targets in Round II

So Dallas has Travis Frederick in the mix and already handed a starting job.  They want 3 legit immediate starters  from this draft and so they have 3 picks to play with to find 2 starters.

The top 5 best players available is
LB Manti Teo
SS Jonathan Cyprien
TE Zach Ertz
RB Montee Ball
LB Kevin Minter

I would love to have Cyprien in Dallas as he was just miss first round prospect and fits into Kiffin's aggressive safety approach.  He played super close to the scrimmage in school, has level of competition question marks as well as whether or not he is a liability vs play action and pump fakes using his aggressiveness against him. However if he is not there, there are a lot of safeties in the 3rd round area who will be just a small step below Vaccarro and Cyprien and be instant starters in Dallas. I want either JJ Wilcox or Phillip Thomas in round 3.

I am not drafting any inside linebackers until the 6th round, need depth there but i gotta find starters.

There will be some solid defensive lineman when Cowboys come up but obviously none on the level of Richardson, Star and Floyd.

There is one offensive tackle who is projected to go in the 40s although I am not a fan of his.  Florida st tackle Menelik Watson  who if you look at frame,, strength and athleticism would say this is a top NFL tackle but you don't see a guy you would be happy with on an island vs a pro pass rusher. He is a project and maybe two seasons away before can make starting contribution  to a team.

There are some interior offensive lineman, Kentucky's Larry Warford as a power run blocker in a angle scheme  is the top rated guy. However Cowboys apparently are not high on Warford for whatever reason.

The good defensive lineman at the 1-technique are John Jenkins from Georgia, massive run stuffer although not as strong as his size suggest. Johnathan Hankins is the most talented tackle available and has equally high bust factor as he is very inconsistent in 2012. Kawann Short from Purdue is good player, lil older than most rookies will be but solid, not great. Issue with short is he doesn't ideally profile to 3-technique or the 1.

There are also some good defensive ends who can strongside ends in a 43 scheme. Tank Carradine from Florida St will be there along with SMU's Margus Hunt. However I am not a fan of Hunt, workout warrior and a huge project. Carradine brings injury concerns as he tore an ACL late in the year but seems to be recovering well. There is a weakside speed rusher there from Auburn, Corey Lemonier, however he is a speed rusher only  and not good holding vs the run as well he would back up Ware, need starters today.

The 47th best player on my board is Sio Moore, OLB from Uconn, absolute beast playing in their 3-4 defense on the strongside. He played man coverage well, strong enough to hold at point vs run and brings a pass rushing threat from the edge  and he has a ton of speed. I dont like the idea of taking another LB with a 2nd round pick but he's a real physical player who is super fast. I want speed and pressure on defense, covers up for mistakes and should cause some turnovers.

Cowboys or Jerry got schooled in trade with 49ers

According to trade value chart.  The cowboys gave up the 18th overall pick worth 900 points.  Moving down to pick 31 earned them 600 points therefore need something else to make up the 300 points.  That equals a middle second round pick.  However they settled for the 74th overall pick in the 3rd round worth only 220 points.

This means the Cowboys got lesser value moving off the 18th pick, should of received either a secound round pick from SF or their 3rd & 4th pick in this draft.

The typical thinking when a team trades down and doesn't take equal value is all their targets were off the board and did not want to reach badly at their original spot. Teams only make those bad reaches when they can't find a trade partner.  I imagine SF was one of few teams who called Jerry  and he tried to play hardball but they knew he wanted to move down so he had little leverage in that negotiation. He got schooled!

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Prospect Report on #5 starting pitcher Nick Tepesch

Prospect Report on #5 starting pitcher Nick Tepesch
- Size is 6-4, 225. Drafted in the 14th round out of Missouri.
Pros: Durability and knack for throwing four pitches for strikes, reading swings and locating the ball down in the zone consistently. Fastball has late sinking action.
Cons: Does not have overpowing stuff, fastball touches 91-92 MPH.
Pitches:
Plus pitches
Fastball 91-92 mph with late sinking action
High 70s curveball
High 80s cutter
Average
Diving changeup
Two plane slider

Minor League stats
2011 - Low class A        138 IP        147 H        14 HR        33 BB        118 Ks
2012 - High class A         72 IP         68  H          3 HR         18 BB         59  Ks
         - AA                           90 IP         97  H        10 HR        26 BB          68 Ks

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Stars trade the Captain

So the Stars make their second trade during the 2013 season trading the Captain Brendon Morrow to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

My first question is does this signal the team is a seller or a buyer at the deadline?  I still don't know the answer to that.  Here is why...

I see this trade as an upgrade to the defense core as the trade netted Penguins prospect Joe Morrow, the 23rd overall pick of the 2011 draft.

My first impression reading up on the newly acquired Morrow is he is an offensive defenseman who is close to ready to contribute at the NHL level, isn't that what we thought we got in Alex Goligoski?  The difference here is you gave up a old, gritty, tough defensive winger in the last year of his contract versus a young, goal scoring power winger with several years of contract protection in James Neal.

The Stars got far better equal value in this trade than they did in Ryder for Cole they did a month ago.  However I feel they filled the hole left by Morrow in the Cole trade, gave them the net presence on the top 2 lines who gives better scoring threat, size and several years already under contract.

Onto the new Morrow in Dallas, here is what we know about him.

Joe Morrow is a 20-year old offensive defenseman who was drafted 23rd overall in 2011 draft.  He stands 6-1 and 204 pounds and here's what Hockey Future's report on Morrow says:

"A mobile and aggressive two-way defenseman who can play in all situations, Joe Morrow has seen his stock rise meteorically since his draft year in 2010-11. Playing with poise and maturity far beyond his years, Morrow possesses the ability to retrieve the puck from his own zone and start the play up ice. His puck-distribution ability is top notch and he has a hard and heavy shot that typically hits the net. He also owns a high hockey IQ and does an excellent job of keeping his head up when moving the puck up ice and carrying it along the blue line."

Here is what I don't like about the deal.  Morrow is a left shot, this team is full of left shots with only Stephane Robidas as the only right handed shot on the roster. I would of liked the team to find a player who can bring some balance. The only other thing I don't like doesn't have anything to do with Joe Morrow, it has to do with the Stars trading away 2 top 6 NHL wingers and not coming away with any top line scorers or young centers to build on.

Monday, March 18, 2013

How to shop when you have no money and don't take credit cards?

Free Agency is all about overpaying for players with experience versus filling needs with younger, cheaper players who haven't done it via the draft.

The goal is to build the roster via the draft and fill those few holes in free agency to take your team to the next level.  Obviously Jerry missed that lesson but no point getting into that mess as it does us no good.

So how can you fill holes when you don't have much money to work with and a aging roster.  The answer is not through free agency!

The Cowboys should stay out of the free agency market this year, target role players with a lot of one year deals. Sign older players who were not resigned or released from their previous employers due to their age, not necessarily their play.

Then they need to build through the draft and play all the young players who you need to find out what you have.

So who are the veterans who can be those older or role players who would be willing to come here to Dallas on a one-year deal.  Well, first question to ask yourself is why would a free agency want to go anywhere on a one-year deal.  The answer is someone coming off a subpar year, injuries and looking to hit it big the next year.  A lot like former Cowboy & Seahawk Ken Hamlin and the plan worked perfectly for both parties until his play no longer warranted the compensation given.

Onto the potential targets, be prepared for a short and unimpressive list as cheap and one-year deals being on the must have list.

#1 Israel Idonije, DE from the Chicago Bears
Why he's available?
He's 33 years old and not a speed terror rusher in the mold of Aldon Smith or Von Miller. His best football is obviously behind him and teams are hesitant signing players over the age of 30 to multi-year deals especially lineman.

Why you should want him?
What if I told you Idonije had more sacks and QB pressures than recently franchised Henry Melton?  He had 9 sacks and 37 QB pressues playing over 500 snaps in 2012.  That is a durable and highly productive player at any age.  Is he a player I want to depend on as a full-time starter, probably not but depth along the defensive line is ALWAYS a good thing.  The guy is holding out to after the draft to get a 2 or 3 year deal in the area of 3 million a year for any team that did not address pass rusher in the draft.  I would cut Doug Free in a second and target Idonije to get better up front.

#2 Kellen Davis, TE also from the Bears
Why he's available?
As Idonije fell into the category of age being the primary factor he's available, Davis is there as he's coming off a subpar year. He had just 19 receptions for 229 yards getting only 2 TDs from Jay Cutler. He's never been a big receiving threat but his run blocking took a big hit as did the rest of the team in 2012. Fact is if your not a receiving threat from the tight end position and you did not open up holes for the back on the edge, interest will be low in free agency.

Why you should want him?
John Phillips has signed with Tampa Bay leaving a hole for the blocking tight end in Dallas. I do believe this job should be opened up for James Hannah to have every opportunity to take and show us what he can do. However the team will carry 3 tight ends on the roster and a blocking tight end will be necessary which is why I mention Davis here.  In 2011, Davis had a 4.9 run blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus and hopes would be for him to return to that form in 2013 in Dallas.

#3 Laurent Robinson, WR of the Jaguars
Why he's available?
The Jaguars signed Robinson in 2012 to a 5-year for 32.5 million but released him after just one season taking a 9 million cap hit to do it. Robinson has always been a injury concern dating back to his days with the Rams and Chargers. He had major issues with concussions during his time in Jacksonville and even considered retirement at one time due to the injuries. The Jaguars drafted Justin Blackmon out of Oklahoma State and made the decision to part ways with Robinson as no faith he can recover from the injuries and be a regular contributor at the price they paid.

Why you should want him?
Did you watch #81 for the Cowboys during the 2011 season?  Enough said...but the Cowboys need a receiver who can get open on the outside, Miles Austin & Dwayne Harris cannot do it consistently. This team has too many slot receiver options and not enough guys who can make things happen on the perimeter. The instant chemistry Robinson built up with Romo cannot be under estimated especially considering how difficult its been for receivers to click quickly with Romo (Dez, Roy Williams and Ogletree).