2018 NFL Predictions

The 2018 season begins Thursday with the champion Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Atlanta Falcons.

No more worthless preseason games, the fantasy drafts are complete and now we get to see what this season will bring.

Every season there is high turnover on the playoff teams and preseason favorites fail to meet expectations for a variety of reasons.

So with that said, let's outline what we can expect in 2018.  I will revisit this in February to see how terrible my predictions were.  I predicted the Tennessee Titans would win the Super Bowl against the Arizona Cardinals, at least the Titans made it to the divisional round of the playoffs.

Let us begin with who are the most improved teams heading into 2018 whether by coaching change, free agency signing, selections in the draft or performance down the stretch last season.

The Baltimore Ravens were the best team in the NFL to not make the playoffs last year.  They have an excellent defense and a physical offense. Joe Flacco is an average QB but he can handle the offense and keep them in close games to win late especially with elite kicker Josh Tucker. The run of dominance for the Steelers ends in 2018 with the improvement from the Browns that makes the division a bit more contested. The Cincinnati Bengals are poised to break out offensively led by Joe Mixon but they just miss out on the playoffs. The AFC North will be one of the most balanced divisions in the league but someone has to come out on top and that will be the Ravens led by their defense.

The Houston Texans are ready to make a run in 2018. DeShaun Watson was well on his way to rookie of the year honors before tearing his ACL after a week 9 loss to the Colts. However, Watson is back and healthy with an improved offensive line. In addition, Romeo Crennel is back at the controls of the defense after Mike Vrabel moved into the Titans head coaching position despite controlling the league worst scoring defense in the NFL in 2017.  JJ Watt is healthy and the front 7 is perhaps the strongest in the league with Zach Cunningham in the middle and 3 plus pass rushers in Watt, Mercilus and Clowney. Every defense in football seeks turnovers and the Texans need to do that more in 2018 to be successful, adding Tyrann Mathieu should help combined with a consistent pass rush.

Los Angeles Chargers had the 3rd best defense in the league last season and it got even better adding Derwin James in the draft. The offense is balanced and frankly the rest of the AFC West is open for the taking.  The Chiefs are in for a roller coaster of a season with Pat Mahomes at the helm. The Oakland Raiders just traded away their best player Khalil Mack weeks before the start of the season for future draft picks in Jon Gruden's first season back on the sidelines. Finally, the Denver Broncos might have the best combo pass rush in the league with Von Miller and rookie Bradly Chubb but scoring will be at a premium as Case Keenum does not project well to a cold weather team playing in the elements.

The NFC East has been one of the most volatile divisions in football with a different champion in the past 3 years. However, that will not continue in 2018 as the Eagles will repeat as division champs led by a dominating defense and playmaking offense that takes chances consistently. The Giants will be better and although Saquan Barkley will be interesting to watch, their offensive line continues to hold the offense back. Washington's defense becomes a force to keep them in every game but they simply lack the offensive firepower that is past their prime. The Dallas Cowboys should of earned a wildcard with a drastically improved defense and balanced offense that is capable of much more but their inability to convert TDs in the end zone holds them back.

Here are my picks for the divisional champions.

AFC East - New England.  They still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichek but 2018 will be their final season together.

AFC North - Baltimore Ravens. They were the best team to not make the playoffs in 2017 and this is more the result of the Steelers falling off drastically that a 9-10 win Ravens team finishes on top.

AFC South - Houston Texans. They have DeShaun Watson and the best defensive front 7 in football.

AFC West - Los Angeles Chargers. The worst division in football and the Chargers have an elite defense ready to take advantage.

NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles. Carson Wentz takes longer than expected to get back on the field but Nick Foles is more than capable of handling the offense until his return. That physical and opportunistic defense keeps them on top.

NFC North - Minnesota Vikings. Its hard to say a team that won 13 games the previous season can be even better but thats exactly the case. They have one of the best rosters in football with improved QB play in Kirk Cousins, healthy Davin Cook and that defense is really good.

NFC South - Atlanta Falcons. They will win with offense just as they did a few years ago.

NFC West - San Francisco 49ers break through in 2018 as they were the hottest team in the league at the end of the regular season last year including the playoff teams. The Rams had an elite offense last year but Jared Goff takes a big step back this season. I am always concerned anointing the offseason champion but adding Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters and Ndamukong Suh could blow up in their face.

Wildcards
NFC - New Orleans Saints paid a huge price in the draft mortgaging a portion of their future for Marcus Davenport suggesting they are trying to make a final run with Drew Brees. One of the most balanced teams in the league.
NFC - Chicago Bears. The most improved team in football with a lights out defense and Jordan Howard becomes the face of the offense. Mitchell Trubisky isn't special but he is a solid starting QB who has one of the most underrated wide receiver corps in football with rookie Anthony Miller and Allen Robinson.

AFC - Tennesse Titans make the playoffs under first year head coach Mike Vrabel but it is Marcus Mariota who takes the team to the playoffs despite their level of talent.
AFC - New York Jets. The surprise of the league led by rookie of the year Sam Darnold. The team exceeds expectations as Darnold plays nothing like a rookie but instead a seasoned veteran leading the team to a surprising 10 win season.

Conference matchups:

San Francisco 49ers beat Minnesota Vikings. I'm sorry Vikings fans but your team lets you down again as the 49ers move on led by Jimmy Garoppolo gets it done.

Houston Texans beat Los Angeles Chargers. DeShaun Watson has shown no stage is too big and he can perform even against the best defense.

Super Bowl winner: Houston Texans. See above.

Enjoy the season everyone.  I look forward to revisiting this in February.

Morning After: Cowboys lose to the 49ers in preseason game #1

Football season got underway for the Dallas Cowboys against the San Francisco 49ers Thursday night.  Sort of.

The final score is about as worthless as the box score but we can find some answers to the questions surrounding the Cowboys as they prepare for the 2018 regular season.

• Who is going to lead the wide receiver group without Dez and Witten?
• Has Dak improved his ability to throw the ball downfield?
• How are the draft picks performing?

First, you cannot draw any conclusions good or bad from one preseason game or the first few weeks of training camp.  However, you can find some evidence that can suggest an answer to those questions.

Allen Hurns was the significant free agent acquisition who has yet to clearly separate himself from the group in practice but has not disappointed either. He runs good routes and showed against the 49ers the ability to make a contested catch over the middle on 3rd down to keep the chains moving.

I expect the opportunities to open up for Cole Beasley this season running routes downfield and option routes especially on money downs. He became Dak's favorite target as a rookie and think that chemistry will lead to a career year for Beasley.

Tavon Austin is an undersized but elite speed element who will be used to make defenses pay for crowding the line to stuff the run or jump underneath routes. Last season, the Cowboys offense failed to intimidate defenses to respect the deep ball or assign extra coverage to one side of the field. That should change this season.

The wildcard is Michael Gallup, the 3rd round rookie from Colorado State.  Here is my summary of Gallup prior the draft:

Michael Gallup is an above average receiving prospect with good speed to become a deep threat but he is not a polished route runner to consistently generate separation, strong enough to make physical catches or quick enough to be an underneath option.  He needs to improve his route running and has got to improve his hands for the money catches over the middle. Until then, he is only a secondary receiver who will draw downfield attention from the defense but an NFL corner will be handle the rest of his game. Late 3rd round grade.

Reports from camp suggest that Gallup has improved his route running to add to the speed element he brings. He managed to show off that speed early on against the 49ers to open the scoring.

The impressive part of the play is Dak manipulating the safety playing in the middle of the field with his eyes looking left and then throwing backside to Gallup. Dak was criticized last season for failing to throw the ball effectively downfield and Dallas lacked the speed outside to threaten defenses deep.

I expect Michael Gallup to challenge Terrance Williams for his job this season and to add a competent outside receiver to the Hurns and Beasley corp by seasons end.

Dallas' next pick in the draft was Dorance Armstrong, pass rusher from Kanas. Here is my summary on Armstrong:

Dorance Armstrong has the ideal frame for an OLB in a 3-4 scheme. He brings excellent speed but only average burst off the snap. He needs to improve his strength in games, struggles to convert speed to power or hold the POA when teams run at him. He isn’t able to get his hands into the blocker and drive them back into the pocket. He needs to improve his technique, use his length properly and develop some pass rush moves to get off blocks against better tackles. It was over in college when tackles got their hands on him. He needs to make a position change to be a stand up LB at the next level to give him the best chance. He needs to learn to drop back, get comfortable in space and become adequate in coverage. He has more than enough athleticism to be adequate as an OLB in a 3-4 scheme. He could be a pass rusher in a rotation or subbed in on passing downs early in his career. 4th round grade.

Here you can see Armstrong, wearing #74 at defense end, use his left hand and knock the offensive tackle back into the QB. The play breaks down and he continues to pursue him. He moves well and nice to see him convert that speed to power to force the QB out of the pocket.

It wasn't all good news for the rookies. Connor Williams, second round pick from Texas, had some struggles lining up at left guard. It was good for him to match up against top competition in DeForrest Buckner and Solomon Thomas, both former first round picks. Buckner knocks Williams' down off his body and explodes past him to Prescott. Williams played left tackle in college and is projected to start the season. There will be growing pains but fully expect him to learn and get better for opening day.

We can't forget about Dallas' top pick, Leighton Vander Esch #55, from Boise State. He did not start the game but did see time at middle and outside linebacker with the backups.

He totaled 4 tackles but he was mostly a spectator on defense for the night. Take a look below to find out why.

Vander Esch was described as a tremendous athlete but average football player at this point. A workout warrior or passive linebacker when taking on blockers. Here is my summary on LVE at the draft:

Leighton Vander Esch brings excellent size to the position and moves well for his size. However he doesn’t do anything special and needs to play in the right system and role to be successful at the next level. He needs to do better taking on blockers, finding the ball quicker and playing to his talent level in coverage. He is athletic and has good speed but doesn’t play like it consistently. He is at his best when attacking the line and more than capable of stuffing the play at the line or even for a loss. He projects to be a inside backer in a 3-4 scheme but needs protection as a mike backer instead of the thumper. 4th round grade who has good potential if he can play a more consistent attacking style of play.

I saw that exact player in San Francisco but the Cowboys brass have to hope the athlete they drooled over will make his way onto the football field sooner rather than later.

2015 NFL Draft Revisit: Evaluating the Draft Grades

The 2018 NFL Draft is a wrap and cue the annual debate how to grade a teams draft, who did well and who did not?

The best answer is not likely the one any fan wants to hear, we really don't know until 3 years from now.

The reason for this is simple.  Players just need time to adjust to the games highest level and also for those who are not cut out for the big leagues to find their way elsewhere.

High pick busts can be inserted into the starting lineup despite not earning the job but teams are reluctant to giving up on them after just a year.  Meanwhile, mid round picks who have out performed those ahead of him on the depth chart often need a season before teams give them the increased playing time they deserve.

After 3 seasons in the NFL, the separation between them is clear.

Now is the time for that draft to be accurately accessed.

I was prepared to do this for the 2015 NFL Draft when a question gave me pause.

Is it more important to highlight who had the most successful draft picks or evaluate how accurate the draft grades assigned to each prospect?

Is it more impactful to know, did all the prospects given a first round grade work out?  How do these experts evaluations stack up with historical success rates?

Every scout needs to be accountable for their evaluation and I decided to take this approach beginning with the 2015 draft.

How to determine if a scouts grade was appropriate?

Prospects are generally given a grade associated with the round they should be selected in.  The lower the grade, the less likelihood the player will become a starter.  In addition, the best prospects in the draft may be given an elite grade suggesting they have little to no flaws in their game and should become one of the games best.

Grade	Criteria
Elite	Starter for 100% of games played and receive at least one all-pro or pro-bowl selection.
First	Starter for more than 80% of games played or reach at least one all-pro or pro-bowl selection.
Second	Starter for more than 70% of games played or reach at least one all-pro or pro-bowl selection. (QBs must start at least 30 games unless due to injury)
Third	Starter for at least 16 games or appear in at least 32 games. (QBs must start at least 16 games unless due to injury)
Fourth	Starter for less than 40% of games played. (QBs must start 10 or fewer games)
Fifth	Starter for less than 20% of games played.
Sixth	Does not start more than 6 games or cut by original team.
Seventh	Does not start any games or cut by original team.
Undrafted	Does not make team.

133 players were evaluated for the 2015 NFL Draft including 17 first round grades.

There were 84 players assigned a grade in the first 3 rounds.  This is where rookie starters and a majority of the league's starters come from.  A prospect with a grade in this area is expected to become a starter in the NFL early in their career if not during their rookie season.

However prospects graded in the middle rounds are expected to back up the starter, play special teams and compete for a starting job by their 3rd season.

A scout is expected to predict the path a prospect is going to take with a fair amount of accuracy.  Their bosses have invested millions of dollars into prospects and picking the right prospect can instantly transform a team into a contender for championships.  Best of luck answering to ownership when the high pick doesn't work out.

So, what is acceptable?

Grade	Accurate rate
A+	90%
A	75%
B	60%
C	50%
F	49% or less

The Kansas City Chiefs fan website Arrowheadpride.com wrote an article in 2015 about the draft success rates.  This article was used as reference to determine the standard. You can find the article here.

The NFL average success rate for the opening round is 65% declining steadily by round to 43% in the 2nd and 28% in the 3rd.

The results.

Round	Accurate rate
First	76% (13/17)
Second	38% (13/34)
Third	73% (24/33)
Fourth	59% (16/27)
Fifth	47% (7/15)
Sixth	67% (4/6)
Seventh	N/A
Undrafted	100% (1/1)

The overall accuracy rate was 59%.  Obviously the second round did not go as anticipated.  Thank you Randy Gregory, Danielle Hunter, Bud Dupree, Henry Anderson and Eli Harold.

I am not a professional scout.  An amateur scout should not be able to outperform professional general managers and scouts.

And yet I did.

2018 NFL Draft: Dallas Cowboys 6th round pick Chris Covington, LB

Chris Covington, Indiana

Game Film Evaluated:

Penn State (2017)

Michigan (2017)

Wisconsin (2017)

Analysis: Has the frame of a safety playing LB. He brings a good burst when he wants to blitz and shoot the gaps. Tight hips and struggles to change directions quickly. Aggressive player and he will take false steps especially in coverage. He can really move downhill but brings zero power once engaged. Excellent motor and has the athleticism to keep working toward the QB. He cannot get off blocks. He can close on the ball in a hurry. Adequate tackler and capable of making the open field tackle. Flashes the ability to side step around blockers but not consistent. He moves well in space and comfortable in underneath coverage. He stays at home and knows his assignments, controls his gap regardless where the play is going. Late to the ball, does not quickly diagnose the play.  Not a hard hitter or a playmaker on defense. Not someone who got close to the ball in coverage, forced fumbles or sacks.

Summary: Chris Covington plays like a safety in a LB’s body. He is very athletic for his size and has an elite burst to the ball. He flashes an aggressive style but he needs to get to work because the rest of his game has a long way to go before can compete for a job in the NFL. He does not read the play quickly, takes too many false steps and incapable of getting through traffic to find the ball. At this point, he is a 3rd down nickel LB who has the athleticism in coverage and needs a clean path to the ball for the best chance at success. He has the look of a player who needs to give maximum effort on special teams and only going to see him on the field on defense in obvious passing situations or due to injury. He is inexperience for the position as he was recruited as a dual threat QB at Indiana before making the change to LB in 2016. He could develop into a serviceable player if he improves reading the play, side stepping blockers and finishing the play when in position. Late 5th round grade.

Chris Covington wore #4 at Indiana.

2018 NFL Draft: Dallas Cowboys 7th round pick Bo Scarbrough, RB

Bo Scarbrough, Alabama

Game Film Evaluated:

Clemson (2017)

Georgia (2018)

Florida State (2017)

Fresno State (2017)

Analysis: Has the look of a LB and a big one at that. Taller frame than ideal for the position. Extremely powerful in the lower body, he excels at getting yards after contact but not because he breaks tackles. He just keeps his legs moving and consistently gains multiple yards after the defender wraps him up. Not a quick lateral back or someone who is shifty in close quarters. He has good straight line speed. Solid hands out of the backfield and can make the difficult catch. Below average vision, runs up the backs of his offensive line too often. He doesn’t run to daylight, might be result of coaches insisting him to run where it is designed. Solid pass protector showcasing solid footwork and good strength to absorb contact and prevent defenders from pushing him into the pocket. Flashed a good jump cut vs Fresno State but did not come up consistently. He is able to break tackles when he uses his free hand on defenders but often he is focused more on protecting the ball.

Summary: Bo Scarbrough is a plus athlete similar to former Alabama back Derrick Henry. He is physically imposing and runs a violent high style that dishes out a lot of contact on defenders. However he is not overly quick, shifty or someone who can make much out of nothing. He can create a big play when blocked up well for him but that can be true for any pro prospect. However he is an adequate receiver out of the backfield and plus pass protector for the QB. He may never be a starter at the next level but a fine rotational back especially for a team that likes to run power football. 4th round grade.

2018 NFL Draft: Dallas Cowboys 6th round pick, Cedrick Wilson, WR

Cedrick Wilson, Boise State

Game Film Evaluated:

Oregon (2017)

Washington State (2017)

Virginia (2017)

Analysis: Taller receiver with good frame and moves well. Not the fastest or the quickest but there is no wasted movement. He can side step tacklers with ease and runs very good routes. He sets up defenders well and creates separation with his advanced feel for running routes. Lacks the extra gear in the open field and is not a consistent threat to stretch the field vertically. Type of player that doesn’t look fast but finds himself consistently out running angles. Very good hands and can adjust to the poorly thrown ball. Did not display ability to go up and take the ball from the defender and win those 50/50 passes. Had a few drops when thrown into the middle of the field. Needs to do better using his frame shielding the defender away from the ball and make more catches in traffic consistently. Not someone who can make the difficult catch.

Summary: Cedrick Wilson is one of the most solid receivers in the draft. However he lacks a special trait, something to distinguish himself from the other receivers in the class or on his pro team. He lacks the top physical skills to win contested passes and bring in catches in traffic consistently. He doesn’t have the break away speed to threaten the defense vertically enough for a defensive coach to stay up late worrying about how to defend him. He understands how to run routes and create separation vs man coverage. He would be an average #2 receiver but would be a fine #3 receiver that could get open on the outside as well as the slot position. May never be a starter in the league in base personnel but will get lots of looks in passing situations especially when paired with an elite speed threat to create space for him to work the underneath and intermediate areas. 3rd round grade.

2018 NFL Draft: Dallas Cowboys 5th round pick Mike White, QB

Mike White, Western Kentucky

Game Film Evaluated:

Georgia State (2017)

Alabama (2016)

Memphis (2017)

Analysis: Excellent size and stands tall in the pocket. Solid arm, throws with touch and capable of firing it downfield. Not that mobile but he can buy some time with his feet but looks to get rid of it when he gets a chance. Accuracy disappears when facing pressure. Comfortable progressing on his reads across the field. He’s a statue in the pocket, he holds it too long. Inconsistent footwork which leads to accuracy issues. He is not comfortable throwing it from inside the pocket when he’s got someone closing in on him. Stares down receivers and small college defenders were able to get their hands on a lot of his passes. He can let the pressure affect his play. Almost every throw vs Alabama in 2016 was in the 5 yard range. Not an accurate thrower.

Summary: Mike White has the traditional look and arm of a pro style QB. He has the frame and more than adequate arm to make all the throws. However he lacks the internal clock, mobility to escape the pocket vs top athletic defenders. He needs a clean pocket, time to progress on multiple reads to be effective. However that is not a luxury most pro QBs get on a consistent basis. He needs to be quicker with his reads, identify the safeties and not stare down receivers. He can become a solid back up QB if he develops the mental side of the game, play a much quicker game and have more consistent footwork which should improve the accuracy issue. 5th round grade.