Cowboys 2013 NFL Re-Draft

I'm working on re-drafting the 2013 Draft for the Cowboys.  I did the same thing last year with the highly controversial trade for Morris Claiborne.  You can read that article here for those interested.

With this post I operate under two rules, if I choose a different player than the one the Cowboys picked, that player is then removed off the board or I can elect to keep the Cowboys selection.  This is because we cannot assume that player would be there in the next round, we can only go by what did happen.

Next is I will do two versions, one with the Cowboys trade down to 31 with the extra 3rd pick and the other without any trades at all.  No additional trades are made since they did not occur on draft day.

Rules set, lets go...

Re-Draft #1 with no trade down.

1st - Sharrif Floyd, DT from Florida - Will not pass up a 3-technique pass rushing tackle who never thought would fall out of top 10. No brainer

2nd - Larry Warford, OG from Kentucky - A phone booth physical interior guard who profiles as a mauling run blocking guard in a angle blocking scheme. Day 1 starter at RG allowing team to move Bernadeau to center thereby upgrading two positions with one pick.

3rd - Jordan Hill, DT from Penn State - He can step in to the one-technique nose tackle spot for Dallas, a spot they currently have zero guys capable of doing that job on the D-Line. He isn't as tall as would like and not as quick as you might want but watch the film of Hill and you would want him on your team. Exactly the type of person that falls through the cracks but gets better as a pro not having the ideal measurables to go higher in the draft.

4th - Phillip Thomas, FS from Fresno State - An absolute playmaker at the safety position and excellent in coverage.  He would be the ideal free safety teamed up with Barry Church as a step in starter.  The cowboys wanted 3 immediate starters from this draft and I count 3, maybe even 4 if both d-lineman squeeze into the lineup with Ratliff's off the field concerns. Thomas got 8 picks, took 3 for scores, 84 total tackles with 12 behind the line and forced 4 fumbles for good measure.

I keep the other 2 picks as is, felt that Dallas getting Joseph Randle in the 5th round was a tremendous steal!  The final pick of Thurmond is exactly what you want at that spot, depth at a position lacking it and an athletic special teams player.

This draft would accomplish goal of upgrading offensive line with Warford's addition as well as moving Bernadeau to center, yes I know still have a hole at RT but I cut Doug Free and sign either Eric Winston or Tyson Clabo to a one-year deal only.  In addition, I add talent and depth to my defensive line that is aging quickly and not under contract past this year. It is also a rich defensive tackle draft which is rare to see and always good to get your hand in.  Finally I score with a playmaker at safety, something haven't seen in years, Thomas' tackling isn't as good as I want but the playmaking skill is top notch.

Re-Draft #2 with the trade down.

1st Round - Travis Frederick, C from Wisconsin - This draft had only 16-18 first round talent prospects and picking in this spot made reaching for a guy a almost impossibility. The highest rated player on my board was safety John Cyprien, I would not pick a safety in first round unless can do 3 or 4 of the four traits needed of a safety. Cyprien could only do 2 although does it very well.  I need complete players if in the first round at that position.

2nd - Larry Warford, OG from Kentucky - A phone booth physical interior guard who profiles as a mauling run blocking guard in a angle blocking scheme. Day 1 starter at RG allowing team to move Bernadeau to center thereby upgrading two positions with one pick.

3rd - Keenan Allen, WR from Cal - Easily the highest rated player on the board, a late 1st round talent who performed poorly in workouts. I am not looking for someone to be a #1 receiver, I have that in Dez. What I need is someone who can line up on the outside and be just as physical with defenders and run excellent routes. I have several slot receiver types in Dallas, I need someone who will not get pressed at the line, run good routes and go get the ball. Yes, he did not run that fast but running the routes like he does, that is what gets the separation from corners. The worst thing a receiver can be is not get off the press, run bad routes and be slow out of your breaks.

3rd - Jordan Hill, DT from Penn State - He can step in to the one-technique nose tackle spot for Dallas, a spot they currently have zero guys capable of doing that job on the D-Line. He isn't as tall as would like and not as quick as you might want but watch the film of Hill and you would want him on your team. Exactly the type of person that falls through the cracks but gets better as a pro not having the ideal measurables to go higher in the draft.

4th - Phillip Thomas, FS from Fresno State - An absolute playmaker at the safety position and excellent in coverage.  He would be the ideal free safety teamed up with Barry Church as a step in starter.  The cowboys wanted 3 immediate starters from this draft and I count 3, maybe even 4 if both d-lineman squeeze into the lineup with Ratliff's off the field concerns. Thomas got 8 picks, took 3 for scores, 84 total tackles with 12 behind the line and forced 4 fumbles for good measure.

I keep the other 2 picks as is, felt that Dallas getting Joseph Randle in the 5th round was a tremendous steal!  The final pick of Thurmond is exactly what you want at that spot, depth at a position lacking it and an athletic special teams player.

So with the trade down, the bottom line is Dallas also traded down to get a less quality type of player. The arguement is well you can get extra players by trading down which is true but are you getting good players or just a guy?  If you can hit on the trade down and still get value then it works.  The problem is Dallas rarely gets the value on the backend of the deal.

With only 16-18 first round prospects, they had to reach for a offensive lineman but I come away from the draft upgrading the O-Line still needing to change the RT but have to start somewhere. Then address the defensive line by selecting Hill to give me the one-technique lineman. The steal is Allen from Cal in the 3rd round. I want Miles Austin off the roster as I'm done with his injuries, drops and inability to make consistent plays on the outside. This selection allows me cut Austin next year and slowly remove so many of these bad contracts and get out of cap hell.

Jerry says got value...

Travis Frederick was ranked 87, taken pick #31.  Thats a loss of 56 slots meaning took the guy almost 2 rounds ahead of where he was ranked.

Gavin Escobar, ranked # 84.  Taken at 47 representating another loss of 37.  A full round ahead of where thought he should go.

Terrence Williams ranked #93, taken at 74, loss of 19 slots so again almost a full round ahead.

Then finally with their last pick in 3rd round, take JJ Wilcox at pick # 80 who was ranked #51. They got their only gain pick of 29 slots so getting him a round later than expected.

Jerry Jones  says the team had Frederick, Escobar & Williams all rated in their 20s overall on the board. He believes received tremendous value, I disagree.  He did not receive great value, he reached consistently throughout the draft ignoring value at need positions like DL.

If he really wanted value, he should of stayed at 18, taken the tight end Tyler Eifert from Notre Dame and still gotten your center Frederick in the second round. I firmly believe he would of been there and presented far better value!

Question for you

Question...How many games did we lose last year because we didn't have a receiving threat at backup tight end?

Another question...How many games did we lose last year because we didn't have a non-quick out of his breaks big receiver who can't get off press coverage with occassional drops  not be able to contribute as the Number 4 receiver?

How many games did we lose because we have a very inexperienced but extremely athletic raw safety with only one year of starting experience who is unlikely to jump right in at start at NFL level in year one?

How many games did we lose because we had a non dominating physical open up rushing lanes interior offensive line for DeMarco Murray?

Then why the hell did we draft 4 guys who wouldnt have changed our record from last year one bit!!!

Sorry guys, be honest about your team.

Best Available and Cowboys Targets in Round II

So Dallas has Travis Frederick in the mix and already handed a starting job.  They want 3 legit immediate starters  from this draft and so they have 3 picks to play with to find 2 starters.

The top 5 best players available is
LB Manti Teo
SS Jonathan Cyprien
TE Zach Ertz
RB Montee Ball
LB Kevin Minter

I would love to have Cyprien in Dallas as he was just miss first round prospect and fits into Kiffin's aggressive safety approach.  He played super close to the scrimmage in school, has level of competition question marks as well as whether or not he is a liability vs play action and pump fakes using his aggressiveness against him. However if he is not there, there are a lot of safeties in the 3rd round area who will be just a small step below Vaccarro and Cyprien and be instant starters in Dallas. I want either JJ Wilcox or Phillip Thomas in round 3.

I am not drafting any inside linebackers until the 6th round, need depth there but i gotta find starters.

There will be some solid defensive lineman when Cowboys come up but obviously none on the level of Richardson, Star and Floyd.

There is one offensive tackle who is projected to go in the 40s although I am not a fan of his.  Florida st tackle Menelik Watson  who if you look at frame,, strength and athleticism would say this is a top NFL tackle but you don't see a guy you would be happy with on an island vs a pro pass rusher. He is a project and maybe two seasons away before can make starting contribution  to a team.

There are some interior offensive lineman, Kentucky's Larry Warford as a power run blocker in a angle scheme  is the top rated guy. However Cowboys apparently are not high on Warford for whatever reason.

The good defensive lineman at the 1-technique are John Jenkins from Georgia, massive run stuffer although not as strong as his size suggest. Johnathan Hankins is the most talented tackle available and has equally high bust factor as he is very inconsistent in 2012. Kawann Short from Purdue is good player, lil older than most rookies will be but solid, not great. Issue with short is he doesn't ideally profile to 3-technique or the 1.

There are also some good defensive ends who can strongside ends in a 43 scheme. Tank Carradine from Florida St will be there along with SMU's Margus Hunt. However I am not a fan of Hunt, workout warrior and a huge project. Carradine brings injury concerns as he tore an ACL late in the year but seems to be recovering well. There is a weakside speed rusher there from Auburn, Corey Lemonier, however he is a speed rusher only  and not good holding vs the run as well he would back up Ware, need starters today.

The 47th best player on my board is Sio Moore, OLB from Uconn, absolute beast playing in their 3-4 defense on the strongside. He played man coverage well, strong enough to hold at point vs run and brings a pass rushing threat from the edge  and he has a ton of speed. I dont like the idea of taking another LB with a 2nd round pick but he's a real physical player who is super fast. I want speed and pressure on defense, covers up for mistakes and should cause some turnovers.

Cowboys or Jerry got schooled in trade with 49ers

According to trade value chart.  The cowboys gave up the 18th overall pick worth 900 points.  Moving down to pick 31 earned them 600 points therefore need something else to make up the 300 points.  That equals a middle second round pick.  However they settled for the 74th overall pick in the 3rd round worth only 220 points.

This means the Cowboys got lesser value moving off the 18th pick, should of received either a secound round pick from SF or their 3rd & 4th pick in this draft.

The typical thinking when a team trades down and doesn't take equal value is all their targets were off the board and did not want to reach badly at their original spot. Teams only make those bad reaches when they can't find a trade partner.  I imagine SF was one of few teams who called Jerry  and he tried to play hardball but they knew he wanted to move down so he had little leverage in that negotiation. He got schooled!

Prospect Report on #5 starting pitcher Nick Tepesch

Prospect Report on #5 starting pitcher Nick Tepesch
- Size is 6-4, 225. Drafted in the 14th round out of Missouri.
Pros: Durability and knack for throwing four pitches for strikes, reading swings and locating the ball down in the zone consistently. Fastball has late sinking action.
Cons: Does not have overpowing stuff, fastball touches 91-92 MPH.
Pitches:
Plus pitches
Fastball 91-92 mph with late sinking action
High 70s curveball
High 80s cutter
Average
Diving changeup
Two plane slider

Minor League stats
2011 - Low class A        138 IP        147 H        14 HR        33 BB        118 Ks
2012 - High class A         72 IP         68  H          3 HR         18 BB         59  Ks
         - AA                           90 IP         97  H        10 HR        26 BB          68 Ks

Stars trade the Captain

So the Stars make their second trade during the 2013 season trading the Captain Brendon Morrow to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

My first question is does this signal the team is a seller or a buyer at the deadline?  I still don't know the answer to that.  Here is why...

I see this trade as an upgrade to the defense core as the trade netted Penguins prospect Joe Morrow, the 23rd overall pick of the 2011 draft.

My first impression reading up on the newly acquired Morrow is he is an offensive defenseman who is close to ready to contribute at the NHL level, isn't that what we thought we got in Alex Goligoski?  The difference here is you gave up a old, gritty, tough defensive winger in the last year of his contract versus a young, goal scoring power winger with several years of contract protection in James Neal.

The Stars got far better equal value in this trade than they did in Ryder for Cole they did a month ago.  However I feel they filled the hole left by Morrow in the Cole trade, gave them the net presence on the top 2 lines who gives better scoring threat, size and several years already under contract.

Onto the new Morrow in Dallas, here is what we know about him.

Joe Morrow is a 20-year old offensive defenseman who was drafted 23rd overall in 2011 draft.  He stands 6-1 and 204 pounds and here's what Hockey Future's report on Morrow says:

"A mobile and aggressive two-way defenseman who can play in all situations, Joe Morrow has seen his stock rise meteorically since his draft year in 2010-11. Playing with poise and maturity far beyond his years, Morrow possesses the ability to retrieve the puck from his own zone and start the play up ice. His puck-distribution ability is top notch and he has a hard and heavy shot that typically hits the net. He also owns a high hockey IQ and does an excellent job of keeping his head up when moving the puck up ice and carrying it along the blue line."

Here is what I don't like about the deal.  Morrow is a left shot, this team is full of left shots with only Stephane Robidas as the only right handed shot on the roster. I would of liked the team to find a player who can bring some balance. The only other thing I don't like doesn't have anything to do with Joe Morrow, it has to do with the Stars trading away 2 top 6 NHL wingers and not coming away with any top line scorers or young centers to build on.